Earlier quoted context omitted.
For self-driving cars, what would that be? You can misuse a non-self driving car by speeding, giving you above-average chances of accidents. You can be old, giving you above average chances of being involved in accidents (per km driven). You can smoke, giving you above average chances of getting lung cancer. You can misuse a partially self driving car by somehow convincing it that you do follow the traffic while actu…
> Unless some roads are more susceptible to accidents than others By chance do you happen to live somewhere without icy roads?
Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
171–180 of 222 posts
Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
For self-driving cars, what would that be? You can misuse a non-self driving car by speeding, giving you above-average chances of accidents. You can be old, giving you above average chances of being involved in accidents (per km driven). You can smoke, giving you above average chances of getting lung cancer. You can misuse a partially self driving car by somehow convincing it that you do follow the traffic while actu…
> Unless some roads are more susceptible to accidents than others By chance do you happen to live somewhere without icy roads?
Well, guess what, those guys are still on Reddit making snarky comments and the Dropbox guys have IPO'd.
Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're absolutely right, but the issue isn't what an aircraft autopilot actually is. It's what the word "autopilot" evokes in the minds of the non-pilot public. To them, autopilot means fully automated with no oversight. ("Planes fly themselves!" and other such nonsense.)
Please don’t force marketing to conform to the lowest common denominator. People have some responsibility to educate themselves about the products they’re using.
Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
#174Waymo keeps plugging away. Each year, for the last few years, the number of miles between disconnects they report to the CA DMV has doubled. Three more doublings, and that number will be bigger than average miles between accidents for human drivers. Then they can ship a product. Nobody else is even close. This problem is slowly being solved, by normal engineering practices. The "fake it til you make it" players are b…
Waymo is ahead but only as a Taxi service in dense urban cities. Tesla however can deliver one day that will self drive 90% of the time. Many, especially in North America will only want the later. In North America, a car is still seen as a freedom enabler, one that lets you go to the beach, go on a hiking trip, and go on a few offroad track in a park during weekends. All of these will not be possible with a Waymo car…
Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
#175Earlier quoted context omitted.
A computer will be able to react to a sudden crazy movement by another driver far better than a human will.
“Will be”? Yep. Given an infinite timescale computers “will be” able to do lots of things better than people, such as navigate rough terrain or open a door. Currently, they can’t do any of that better than humans, and probably not for several years.
Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
#176I've always found that half the issue is with the name: Autopilot. On an airplane, autopilot means you can take your focus off of both the physical and mental act of moving the plane through the air, and if it needs you to intercede there is pretty much no emergency in which you wouldn't have a few seconds to react. In a car, Tesla's Autopilot simply doesn't give you that. If you are reading and your autopilot exits,…
I don't think this accurately considers how the term "autopilot" is actually used in aviation. Autopilot can mean anything from "hold a gyro estimated heading but not pitch or speed" to "maintain airspeed and follow the localizer down a glide slope while cross checking GPS and ILS." > if it needs you to intercede there is pretty much no emergency in which you wouldn't have a few seconds to react. Traffic avoidance is…
This happened to me in X-Plane (sim) the first time I used autopilot. I had dialled in a rate of climb the plane couldn't maintain. Very hard to recover from a stall when the elevator trim is set fully nose up.
Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
#177I believe that stereopsis (multiple cameras using parallax to solve for per-pixel depth) is necessary to get a practical, well-functioning self driving system working. LIDAR is just too expensive and not good enough, but stereopsis is extremely flexible and can have extremely high angular resolution.
Combine naive stereopsis with temporally-coherent sensor fusion (e.g. a well-designed Kalman filter), and I think you could have very robust ranging. Humans are already very good at this with two narrowly spaced eyes (stereopsis to 1/4 mile range is not unreasonable for a person)-- but a car is not limited to a 1.5 inch stereo baseline; it could have a stereo cameras on opposite sides of the windshield. That would hugely increase the depth sensitivity, even at moderate resolution-- parallax can be detected well below the Nyquist limit (since Nyquist cuts off frequency, but does not destroy phase).
Tesla is totally failing at even the basic level of environment awareness (c.f. cars which have been driving into exit dividers), which is what I consider to be the easy part of self-driving (the hard part is getting the machine to participate in a nonverbal social environment, which is what the roadway is). Rumor has it that Teslas can't detect obstacles far enough ahead to avoid them at more than 30mph-- absolutely abysmal, if true.
If it were me, I would put cameras on the Tesla windshield in this pattern:
xXoO OoXx
Where x and o are long-range and wide-field cameras, and caps and lowercase are dynamically exposure-adjusted to capture both brights and darks. Each pair has the largest possible parallax baseline. And I would do a big, fat sensor fusion on all eight of them to get a high-res, depth-augmented HDR map of the surroundings. No fancy, expensive sensors. Just a large number of cheap cameras and sophisticated software. Maybe do some tricks with cycling 'attention' or multi-res hierarchies to keep the computation load down and realtime.Tesla has only three cameras with different FOVs and a very narrow baseline-- I doubt they are doing stereopsis. And I don't think they can do the job without it.
Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s more obvious is you break it into smaller jumps. Cruse control requires you to pay close attention etc, but you can avoid making a lot of minor speed corrections, which makes long drives less taxing. Adaptive cruse control takes this one step further again reducing cognitive load. Lane following might not seem like much, but represents a huge number of tiny course corrections. I could go on, but even if you can’…
Sure, question is, does that lower level of stress make it harder to pay attention enough to save your life when the 0.1% event happens?
Second, these systems are adding redundancy. As both the system and human driver needs to fail which means someone that’s only paying attention 98% of the time can still cover for 49 out of 50 times the system fails. Current data suggests a net gain in safety which is likely to improve as these systems mature.
Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Unless some roads are more susceptible to accidents than others By chance do you happen to live somewhere without icy roads?
Funny. This reminds me of all the comments about apps like Dropbox. "Do you happen to live with strict low data caps?" Well, guess what, those guys are still on Reddit making snarky comments and the Dropbox guys have IPO'd.