Earlier quoted context omitted.
As someone who works with data I can tell you that distributions can take on all kinds of unexpected shapes, especially when n=600. I think he's bluffing - the stats can't prove that anyone has cheated. That said, the deal he offered sounded pretty good when compared to the alternative.
My thoughts exactly. If I were a non-cheating student in that class, I would be very tempted to confess anyway, out of fear that I would be a victim of the prof's over-confidence in his statistical analysis. He mentioned being able to supply the dean with a list of people with 95% confidence that everyone who cheated was on the list, with no apparent concern for any false positives. The confession offer is pretty goo…
Right after that, he said that he couldn't be sure everyone on the list had cheated. He is saying that he thinks every cheater is on the list, but not everyone on the list is a cheater.