Earlier quoted context omitted.
Controversial take: Buffett is actually not a great investor in the way people think. Via the float in his insurance companies, he receives a 0% infinite maturity loan to plow into the market. That financial leverage gives him the ability to beat the market year after year - not his own stockpicking prowess. If you were to start with $1B, then get an extra $2B that you never had to pay back, you too would do quite we…
Ill take it even farther: Buffet isn't statistically different than average. He just found a strategy that happened to work, was stubborn enough to stick to it through bad times, and used copious amounts of leverage to juice returns. A really interesting paper called "Buffet's Alpha" talks about this, and was able to replicate his performance by following a few simple rules. They found that he produced very little ac…
Compounding Knowledge
121–130 of 181 posts
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#122This concept is essentially the reason why “being able to quickly google the answers to questions” is inferior to “learning, knowing and remembering the answer.” The former treats a piece of information as an independent, context-free item, while the latter allows you to “digest” the information and understand the answer at a deeper level, to the point where it changes the types of questions you ask. Unfortunately ou…
Fortunately, Google exists so you can learn new things and develop foundational knowledge. Its all about what you do with the knowledge, and has little to do with the fact that you're Googling. For example, I was Googling how to create a VM hypervisor last night in FreeBSD. I know very little about hypervisors, but I've read many blog posts and now I know what they are, what they do, how to setup failover clusters, e…
I know this is a shorthand heuristic but Google helps you _find_ other people that can help you learn new things and develop foundational knowledge.
The map is NOT the terrain.
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google is inherently a shallow net, it does not trawl the depths of information. It's made for finding what's easily seen on the surface, what's most interconnected/viewed by others/what Google wants to be on the surface. If you learn to use Google scholar, for instance, you'll quickly find a skilled scholar searcher can find really great, really specific material. The question then is can you integrate and internali…
True. Both for the importance of Google Scholar, but also the question of integration . One way of course, is using your internal memory. But it's rather limited. Unless you're buffet like. But what about creating an external memory ? Maybe not as usefull as your brain, but much more usefull than Googling ? I've tried to do so with evernote. It somewhat work. But surely , it's not the person best that's possible.
https://github.com/synchrony/smsn
Here's something I'm working on now -- extremely expressive, but no app yet:
https://github.com/JeffreyBenjaminBrown/digraphs-with-text/b...
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#124I wonder to what extent Warren Buffet is Warren Buffet because of how he thinks and acts (like all of these non-fiction authors selling books by using his name would have us believe), and to what extent he is the product of media selection bias. -- If you take a large enough group of people who take risky stakes that are large enough (like the world of financial asset management), then one of them is bound to be as s…
Not over the time period he has been successful. Or at least the longer he lasts as a successful person doing what he does the less likely he's just acting at random. It's possible to get 1000000 heads in a row flipping a fair coin, but around 20 I'm going to be suspicious. edit: With Buffet, he's not actually getting everything right, so I guess a better metaphor would be like 70% heads over 1000000 flips... more li…
There's a multiple-endpoints effect here. If there are 2^20 participants all doing that, one of them is going to flip 20 heads in a row. You only notice the one who did after the fact. Some participant has to be the most outlying result and that's the only one you notice.
(Not that that's necessarily the case for Buffett, but that's a general fallacy to be aware of.)
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
"He has specialized to an extreme and is taking advantage of the rewards of that specialization and natural talent in a unique way." Gates is another one of those people where most forget that his grandfather was a multi-millionaire, his mother was a director at IBM, and he had access to one of the first computers in the world. I.e. he is not an example of a self-made person, so anything he says is not really applica…
How basic is required to qualify as self-made in a meaningful sense? I’m not talking about “Should he have grounded up sand and made his own chips and boards?” stuff, I mean lots of people have similar circumstances to Gates and made nothing of themselves. As it happens the high school I went to, as a kid from a mostly lower middle class family with severe issues being able to pay attention in school in the eighties,…
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
Fortunately, Google exists so you can learn new things and develop foundational knowledge. Its all about what you do with the knowledge, and has little to do with the fact that you're Googling. For example, I was Googling how to create a VM hypervisor last night in FreeBSD. I know very little about hypervisors, but I've read many blog posts and now I know what they are, what they do, how to setup failover clusters, e…
>>Google exists so you can learn new things and develop foundational knowledge I know this is a shorthand heuristic but Google helps you _find_ other people that can help you learn new things and develop foundational knowledge. The map is NOT the terrain.
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think by "actually not a great investor in the way people think", what you're saying is that he isn't a particularly outstanding stock picker . To the extent that that's the way in which people think he's a great investor, it's because lots of (most?) people think investing is just stock picking. But what makes him a great investor is exactly what you outlined. He found a great strategy - insurance float for levera…
He's also a good marketer. I have a mostly unsubstantiated theory that Buffet's celebrity 1) allows him to negotiate better deals than other investors and 2) moves the market after he's invested. Re: 2) if Warren buys something, other people will pile on and drive up the price, which helps drive his returns.
While this is technically true, in the long-run the price of a firm will reflect reality as it exists, not as its perceived. And since Warren doesn't buy, then instantly sell when the price goes up, but rather holds for a long time. I don't believe we can attribute his returns to this phenomena.
As a side note, the reason the price goes up is because he built a reputation of being able to pick undervalued stocks, therefore his purchase is a signal.
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#128With that said, Warren Buffet is not someone who invents things and or is very creative such as Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs, etc..
But someone like Buffet can amplify adoption of products and ideas by investing early and seeing potential of the companies.
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#129Buffet’s approach to life is interesting for the same reason an Olympic gymnast is interesting. He has specialized to an extreme and is taking advantage of the rewards of that specialization and natural talent in a unique way. It’s easy for me to feel shame that I don’t read 8 hours per day, as Warren and Charlie do. Buffett is a phenomenal investor but by all accounts, rather odd. He eats like crap, doesn’t exercise…
Controversial take: Buffett is actually not a great investor in the way people think. Via the float in his insurance companies, he receives a 0% infinite maturity loan to plow into the market. That financial leverage gives him the ability to beat the market year after year - not his own stockpicking prowess. If you were to start with $1B, then get an extra $2B that you never had to pay back, you too would do quite we…
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
>>Google exists so you can learn new things and develop foundational knowledge I know this is a shorthand heuristic but Google helps you _find_ other people that can help you learn new things and develop foundational knowledge. The map is NOT the terrain.
Isn't it quite difficult to convince online strangers to really help you, for more than an answer in a forum ?
Sometimes you can get linked directly to a great resource but IMHO the best stuff costs money and is usually worth it for the results that that particular incentive structure engenders.