Sound like Buffets approach to investing is ripe for machine learning. Has anyone tried building a ML model based off 10ks?
Compounding Knowledge
111–120 of 181 posts
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#112Earlier quoted context omitted.
While you are right, I think the parent's idea if that with a large enough sample, even if every actor is making decisions randomly, you will get actors that will just crush it. I mean Warren Buffet invested in Apple about a year ago based on the idea that they have a sticky brand and went so far as to say that iPhones were underpriced (which is just flat out wrong given how poorly they sold relative to predictions).…
Warren Buffet would be the first to tell you that how the market prices an investment on any given day, has very little to do with the intrinsic value of that investment. Just because Apple went down relative to when he invested, that doesn't mean it was a bad investment. Markets go up and down in unpredictable ways. As they say, in the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long run it's a weighing machin…
To buy Apple's explanation that most of their disappointing quarterly earnings were as a result of Chinese macroeconomic conditions is frankly being generous to them. Just focusing on the iPhone, it is a muddled offering where successive iterations don't stand out from the next as they did in previous generations. Now, this isn't just an Apple problem. Innovations in smartphone technology have slowed down across all handset makers. However, until Apple shows that they can successfully increase their service offering to get more money out of their users and are able to charge more for handsets then opportunities for growth seem pretty limited in that space. Moreover, when I see that apple is increasing credit on trade ins for newer iPhones a few months back. . .I take that as a sign that consumers see little value in upgrading. Not saying Apple is doomed but they don't show signs (to me) that they are on the path for growth.
My comments on the price of iphones was from misremembering WB comments about them 6 months ago. He said that the iPhone was underpriced but that Apple could not increase prices due to competition. I thought he made a statement saying he believed that prices should be increased on the iPhone range. I never claimed that their stagnant sales are from product prices, rather that worldwide sales demonstrate that the price should definitely not be higher than it is currently (unless they improve the product dramatically).
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#113Buffet’s approach to life is interesting for the same reason an Olympic gymnast is interesting. He has specialized to an extreme and is taking advantage of the rewards of that specialization and natural talent in a unique way. It’s easy for me to feel shame that I don’t read 8 hours per day, as Warren and Charlie do. Buffett is a phenomenal investor but by all accounts, rather odd. He eats like crap, doesn’t exercise…
"He has specialized to an extreme and is taking advantage of the rewards of that specialization and natural talent in a unique way." Gates is another one of those people where most forget that his grandfather was a multi-millionaire, his mother was a director at IBM, and he had access to one of the first computers in the world. I.e. he is not an example of a self-made person, so anything he says is not really applica…
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
While you are right, I think the parent's idea if that with a large enough sample, even if every actor is making decisions randomly, you will get actors that will just crush it. I mean Warren Buffet invested in Apple about a year ago based on the idea that they have a sticky brand and went so far as to say that iPhones were underpriced (which is just flat out wrong given how poorly they sold relative to predictions).…
On Apple; on a 1 year timeline APPL beats the S&P 500 by 5%. But I don't think Buffett measures his investments on a 1 year timeline; and to be honest to your comment, he made the underpriced comment on Aug 31, 6 months ago. "I do not focus on the sales in the next quarter or the next year," he said. "I focus on the ... hundreds, hundreds, hundreds millions of people who practically live their lives by it [iPhone]."…
Listen, I was just trying to make an argument that even WB can misjudge a situation. It was not a convincing argument because half the example I used was not correct. Timing wise, buying apple stock in early 2018 before concerns about Apple being able to grow and stoke the hunger for their consumers to upgrade is not ideal. Hindsight is not a necessarily fair way to judge his decision because as you mentioned his horizon goes far beyond a year.
Maybe my personal bias is coming through because I just don't see it as such an exciting brand anymore and I struggle to see where they will find new areas for growth. Whereas 10 years ago I was looking to upgrade my laptop/smartphone every 1-2 years, now I've got my iPhone 7 and my 2013 macbook air and I'm sticking with them until they fail because nothing that Apple offers makes me go 'I want that'.
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
Controversial take: Buffett is actually not a great investor in the way people think. Via the float in his insurance companies, he receives a 0% infinite maturity loan to plow into the market. That financial leverage gives him the ability to beat the market year after year - not his own stockpicking prowess. If you were to start with $1B, then get an extra $2B that you never had to pay back, you too would do quite we…
I think by "actually not a great investor in the way people think", what you're saying is that he isn't a particularly outstanding stock picker . To the extent that that's the way in which people think he's a great investor, it's because lots of (most?) people think investing is just stock picking. But what makes him a great investor is exactly what you outlined. He found a great strategy - insurance float for levera…
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#116Buffet’s approach to life is interesting for the same reason an Olympic gymnast is interesting. He has specialized to an extreme and is taking advantage of the rewards of that specialization and natural talent in a unique way. It’s easy for me to feel shame that I don’t read 8 hours per day, as Warren and Charlie do. Buffett is a phenomenal investor but by all accounts, rather odd. He eats like crap, doesn’t exercise…
Controversial take: Buffett is actually not a great investor in the way people think. Via the float in his insurance companies, he receives a 0% infinite maturity loan to plow into the market. That financial leverage gives him the ability to beat the market year after year - not his own stockpicking prowess. If you were to start with $1B, then get an extra $2B that you never had to pay back, you too would do quite we…
In order to control for leverage, you typically look at volatility-adjusted measures of performance such as the Sharpe Ratio, not just absolute returns.
Berkshire's Sharpe Ratio from 1976-2011 was .76, vs. the S&P 500's .39. Even without the leverage, that's twice as good as the market.
Berkshire's Information Ratio during that time was .66, which definitely makes it an outlier: https://www.quora.com/What-is-Warren-Buffetts-Sharpe-ratio
More detail: https://www.nber.org/papers/w19681.pdf
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#117Sound like Buffets approach to investing is ripe for machine learning. Has anyone tried building a ML model based off 10ks?
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#118“Hard to become an expert. Easy to be an expert.” I spent many years learning how to do cloud architecture. Now I can briefly look at AWS documentation for new services out of the corner of my eye and know all I need to for the next 6 months. Yet the other day I opened a book on Java, which I haven’t studied since college, and literally had no idea what in the world I was reading.
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think by "actually not a great investor in the way people think", what you're saying is that he isn't a particularly outstanding stock picker . To the extent that that's the way in which people think he's a great investor, it's because lots of (most?) people think investing is just stock picking. But what makes him a great investor is exactly what you outlined. He found a great strategy - insurance float for levera…
He's also a good marketer. I have a mostly unsubstantiated theory that Buffet's celebrity 1) allows him to negotiate better deals than other investors and 2) moves the market after he's invested. Re: 2) if Warren buys something, other people will pile on and drive up the price, which helps drive his returns.
Basically, Berkshire's reputation for 1.) being financially stable through good times and bad 2.) keeping existing management and place and 3.) being able to allocate capital from cash-rich but growth-poor businesses to growth-rich but cash-poor businesses makes them a "preferred buyer" for many strong private companies that are seeking to get liquidity for themselves or family members but don't want to kiss their baby goodbye forever. That a.) opens up dealflow to Berkshire that would never think of selling to other private equity firms and b.) gives them a good price on the deal, since the owners are not seeking to generate a competitive marketplace of bidders that might drive up the price.
Although Berkshire does invest in regular public companies on the open market, that hasn't driven the majority of their returns in decades. Instead, their modus operandi is usually to buy 80% (there was some tax reason why it was 80%) of highly profitable private businesses, and then use the cash generated by those profits to buy more highly profitable private businesses. They only invest in the public markets when there are no attractive private opportunities available, and in some cases they take formerly public companies (eg. BNSF) private. The subsequent share price matters little with this strategy, because the investments are illiquid and just spin off lots of cash from profits.
Re: Compounding Knowledge
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think by "actually not a great investor in the way people think", what you're saying is that he isn't a particularly outstanding stock picker . To the extent that that's the way in which people think he's a great investor, it's because lots of (most?) people think investing is just stock picking. But what makes him a great investor is exactly what you outlined. He found a great strategy - insurance float for levera…
He's also a good marketer. I have a mostly unsubstantiated theory that Buffet's celebrity 1) allows him to negotiate better deals than other investors and 2) moves the market after he's invested. Re: 2) if Warren buys something, other people will pile on and drive up the price, which helps drive his returns.