Earlier quoted context omitted.
This anecdotal, but I have observed, in my experience in Europe, that short-term forecasts are really inaccurate in countries like Belgium and Italy while, for example, they are really, really spot-on in mainland Poland. So, my guess is that it really depends on the kind of climate and, perhaps, on the impact of climate change in that area.
I would attribute that to the substantial Soviet investment in meteorology.
Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
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Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#42Just follow few models for a couple of weeks and you will notice how inaccurate the weather forecast is.* I do follow ECMWF and ICON and a bit of OpenWeather forecast and the differences in forecasted temperatures are often 2-3 degrees C. And everything with a horizon over 72 hours is just numerology. (OpenWeather showed -19C in early days of Feb just 2 days ago, today it is -2C). Now a model is just a model (I had s…
Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#43Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#44No, both our weather forecasting and climate model forecasting are still very very weak and poorly understood. Predicting the future is still hard for us humans.
Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#45I use the android app and it gives me a simple comparison of 4-5 weather forecasts, an "average" forecast, and a "certainty" (a measure of consensus).
Obviously the average of the ensemble averages isn't as good as having the underlying ensembles themselves, but it's nice to see days when the forecasts agree and days when they have no idea!
Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#46This is textbook availability bias. You overestimate the failure rate because the failures were memorable, especially the major failures. But the far more frequent accurate predictions are not recalled, because they don't leave as much of an emotional impression. For the same reason folks regularly overestimate crime rates, deaths from terrorism or rare diseases.
Meteorology has an entire subfield devoted to studying the quality of forecasts[0]. Before you bandy about numbers and anecdotes, stop and tell me what measure you are using. Is it percentage of degrees centigrade? Well you can't, degrees centigrade is an interval measure, not a ratio measure. If you use Kelvins, which has a mathematically meaningful zero, the percentage accuracy is suddenly very good. How do you count near misses of very intense weather? Direct hits by systems that were less intense than expected? How do you account for systems with very gradual gradients over very wide areas? How do you account for being early by an hour or late by an hour, but nailing the storm surge? How do you score for confidence? What's your rule for weighting false alarms? How important is mean error vs absolute error vs variance, and why?
Solve these and dozens of other problems of describing "accuracy" and weather forecasters might take you seriously. But until then it's probably worth accepting that they are the most effective profession of their kind and that we have a lot we can learn from them.
Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#47The actual research this is based on is: "The Quiet Revolution of Numerical Weather Prediction" Bauer, Thorpe, Brunet, 2005. "Stunningly Accurate" means that 7-day forecasts are now at the lower boundary of being considered "useful" so the bar is not being set very high here. Still not a lot to quell the skepticism that some reasonable people have about the ability of scientists to accurately predict weather decades…
Weather ≠ climate.
Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
Weather ≠ climate.
right. climate is a more complex system. more variables. more unknowns. exponentially larger prediction area. unknown base states. so it should be much easier to predict right?
Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#49I use the forecast put out by weather.gov that's supposedly tailored to the square mile because it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time. The others are worse. Of course, when they say "chance of precipitation is 80%, less than an inch possible" and it doesn't rain, the forecast is semantically "correct." Like the El Nino impact on the SE US, where they forecast a 50% chance of drier colder weather an…
> it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time Where are these figures from? Your emotions, or something scientifically rigid? If the former, having this discussion is meaningless.
Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate
#50The actual research this is based on is: "The Quiet Revolution of Numerical Weather Prediction" Bauer, Thorpe, Brunet, 2005. "Stunningly Accurate" means that 7-day forecasts are now at the lower boundary of being considered "useful" so the bar is not being set very high here. Still not a lot to quell the skepticism that some reasonable people have about the ability of scientists to accurately predict weather decades…
It's a common misconception, climatology doesn't predict weather, but climate. And predicting average of weather is easier than predicting specific weather.
It's the same as in a casino. They cannot tell what will be the next throw of dice (weather). But they can calculate (predict) that you will, in the long-term average, lose (climate).