Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate • Hacker News Board

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#31

Post by dantondwa » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 11:31 AM UTC

LoSboccacc wrote: post #11

chewz wrote: post #10

Just follow few models for a couple of weeks and you will notice how inaccurate the weather forecast is.* I do follow ECMWF and ICON and a bit of OpenWeather forecast and the differences in forecasted temperatures are often 2-3 degrees C. And everything with a horizon over 72 hours is just numerology. (OpenWeather showed -19C in early days of Feb just 2 days ago, today it is -2C). Now a model is just a model (I had s…

In Italy forecast are so unreliable they cannot predict rain in the evening from the morning. I don't know if it's because current climate change is throwing off models but short term forecast accuracy is terrible and I'm recently acutely aware of that since I switched to public transport for my commute.

This anecdotal, but I have observed, in my experience in Europe, that short-term forecasts are really inaccurate in countries like Belgium and Italy while, for example, they are really, really spot-on in mainland Poland. So, my guess is that it really depends on the kind of climate and, perhaps, on the impact of climate change in that area.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#32

Post by nindalf » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 11:39 AM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #18

nindalf wrote: post #9

This is an interesting example of an article that talks about gradual improvements in our lives that we take for granted at this point. It's strange because most articles are about dramatic deterioration. For example, it's unlikely we will read articles about the increase in % children who are vaccinated against basic diseases. It was 22% in 1980, 88% in 2016. Far more likely is reading reams of text devoted to the (…

I don’t think using outbreaks of a preventable disease due to stupid people thinking they know more than they do and causing harm to society as a whole is overly dramatic. If anything, there should be more coverage about it so we can get laws passed to deny non medical exemptions.

What's the impact in terms of affected people. Hundreds of millions of children being vaccinated, millions of them not dying young, dramatically changing the dynamics of societies where women can now choose not to have multiple children.... or a few hundred people getting measles. I'm not saying the anti-vax thing isn't a problem. I'm saying that the improvements and advancements have a higher impact on society than what a few idiots choose to do. And yet we read much more about the latter.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#33

Post by TarpitCarnivore » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 11:42 AM UTC

tda wrote: post #12

chewz wrote: post #10

Just follow few models for a couple of weeks and you will notice how inaccurate the weather forecast is.* I do follow ECMWF and ICON and a bit of OpenWeather forecast and the differences in forecasted temperatures are often 2-3 degrees C. And everything with a horizon over 72 hours is just numerology. (OpenWeather showed -19C in early days of Feb just 2 days ago, today it is -2C). Now a model is just a model (I had s…

The windy.com site is really useful. It is the only way I know to get the ECMWF forecasts for free. As far as I know all the AccuWeather and similar spyware apps use the freely available but inferior GFS model.

Tropical Tidbits is a more US focused site with an emphasis on tropical storm season (hence the name) but they keep the models running & updating all year.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#34

Post by topynate » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 12:04 PM UTC

dantondwa wrote: post #31

LoSboccacc wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Italy forecast are so unreliable they cannot predict rain in the evening from the morning. I don't know if it's because current climate change is throwing off models but short term forecast accuracy is terrible and I'm recently acutely aware of that since I switched to public transport for my commute.

This anecdotal, but I have observed, in my experience in Europe, that short-term forecasts are really inaccurate in countries like Belgium and Italy while, for example, they are really, really spot-on in mainland Poland. So, my guess is that it really depends on the kind of climate and, perhaps, on the impact of climate change in that area.

I would attribute that to the substantial Soviet investment in meteorology.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#35

Post by voyager2 » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 12:09 PM UTC

  I use the forecast put out by weather.gov that's supposedly tailored

to the square mile because it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time. The others are worse.

  Of course, when they say "chance of precipitation is 80%, less than an
  inch possible" and it doesn't rain, the forecast is semantically
  "correct."

  Like the El Nino impact on the SE US, where they forecast a 50% chance

of drier colder weather and a 50% chance of warmer wetter weather, it's nearly impossible to be wrong.

  Maybe this is the sort of obfuscatory probabilistic forecast Mr. Meyer

is counting as "accurate."

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#36

Post by stunningly » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 12:11 PM UTC

The actual research this is based on is: "The Quiet Revolution of Numerical Weather Prediction" Bauer, Thorpe, Brunet, 2005.

"Stunningly Accurate" means that 7-day forecasts are now at the lower boundary of being considered "useful" so the bar is not being set very high here.

Still not a lot to quell the skepticism that some reasonable people have about the ability of scientists to accurately predict weather decades in the future.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#37

Post by organsnyder » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 12:16 PM UTC

stunningly wrote: post #36

The actual research this is based on is: "The Quiet Revolution of Numerical Weather Prediction" Bauer, Thorpe, Brunet, 2005. "Stunningly Accurate" means that 7-day forecasts are now at the lower boundary of being considered "useful" so the bar is not being set very high here. Still not a lot to quell the skepticism that some reasonable people have about the ability of scientists to accurately predict weather decades…

Weather ≠ climate.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#38

Post by lotsofpulp » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 12:17 PM UTC

nindalf wrote: post #32

lotsofpulp wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think using outbreaks of a preventable disease due to stupid people thinking they know more than they do and causing harm to society as a whole is overly dramatic. If anything, there should be more coverage about it so we can get laws passed to deny non medical exemptions.

What's the impact in terms of affected people. Hundreds of millions of children being vaccinated, millions of them not dying young, dramatically changing the dynamics of societies where women can now choose not to have multiple children.... or a few hundred people getting measles. I'm not saying the anti-vax thing isn't a problem. I'm saying that the improvements and advancements have a higher impact on society than…

The issue of people not vaccinating is specifically one which can spiral out of control very easily, as the tools we have to fight the disease don't work once herd immunity is lost, hence sounding the alarm bells is warranted.

Actually, now that I think about it, perhaps if the history of vaccines and the success had been more widely disseminated, then we may not have had this anti vaccine problem. I agree that it would be nice to read more about successes.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#39

Post by kryogen1c » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 12:19 PM UTC

voyager2 wrote: post #35

I use the forecast put out by weather.gov that's supposedly tailored to the square mile because it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time. The others are worse. Of course, when they say "chance of precipitation is 80%, less than an inch possible" and it doesn't rain, the forecast is semantically "correct." Like the El Nino impact on the SE US, where they forecast a 50% chance of drier colder weather an…

No doubt.

That's like saying horoscopes and fortune-tellers are stunningly accurate: "a positive opportunity will present itself to you today - you only have to open the door" "you are holding a secret pain that is preventing you from moving on. Find peace and let go"

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#40

Post by maaaats » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 12:19 PM UTC

voyager2 wrote: post #35

I use the forecast put out by weather.gov that's supposedly tailored to the square mile because it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time. The others are worse. Of course, when they say "chance of precipitation is 80%, less than an inch possible" and it doesn't rain, the forecast is semantically "correct." Like the El Nino impact on the SE US, where they forecast a 50% chance of drier colder weather an…

> it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time

Where are these figures from? Your emotions, or something scientifically rigid? If the former, having this discussion is meaningless.