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Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

nytimes.com

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Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#81

Post by yourbandsucks »

Pharmakon wrote: post #78
yourbandsucks wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This thread isn't about morality, it's about decline. I was comparing the state of American hegemony to that of Britain in 1946.

This thread isn't about morality, it's about decline. I was comparing the state of American hegemony to that of Britain in 1946. Right, and I ignored the morality of both and focused on the massive practical differences. So what’s the problem? They are manifestly different in almost every way, except possibly for aspects of the moral dimension which were both agreeing to ignore.

The original comment about 800 military bases has a pretty strong parallel to an overseas colonial empire in 1946.

Expensive, prestigious, and dubiously 'worth it' in terms of profitability.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#82

Post by Pharmakon »

yourbandsucks wrote: post #81
Pharmakon wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This thread isn't about morality, it's about decline. I was comparing the state of American hegemony to that of Britain in 1946. Right, and I ignored the morality of both and focused on the massive practical differences. So what’s the problem? They are manifestly different in almost every way, except possibly for aspects of the moral dimension which were both agreeing to ignore.

The original comment about 800 military bases has a pretty strong parallel to an overseas colonial empire in 1946. Expensive, prestigious, and dubiously 'worth it' in terms of profitability.

That wasn’t my comment, it was from another person entirely.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#83

Post by magduf »

isostatic wrote: post #68
magduf wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, every powerful nation or empire in the past has collapsed or faded in significance after some time. The question is, in our case, will it be a rapid collapse or a slow fade (like the British empire), and when?

British empire was a rapid collapse. From really starting in the 16th century it reached a peak in 1945 -- nearly 400 years. It collapsed within 20 Rome by comparison took 700 years to grow, and 200-plus to collapse

For the British, I don't think you can say it "collapsed". The empire fell apart, sure, but it's not like life for the British people turned into living hell; they still enjoy a very high standard of living, among the best in the world, surely better than the Americans.

By comparison, when Rome fell apart (which admittedly took some time), the standard of living was objectively much worse for average Romans. They went from a civilization with plumbing, toilets, cities, aqueducts, a Coliseum with water shows, and probably the highest standard of living in the world, and a society with specialization of labor, education, rule of law and a well-developed legal system, to feudalism, where they lived under feudal lords as uneducated serfs living in huts and working in fields. It took over 1000 years for western society to get back to the level of technology and development they had under the Romans.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#84

Post by vorg »

isostatic wrote: post #68
magduf wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, every powerful nation or empire in the past has collapsed or faded in significance after some time. The question is, in our case, will it be a rapid collapse or a slow fade (like the British empire), and when?

British empire was a rapid collapse. From really starting in the 16th century it reached a peak in 1945 -- nearly 400 years. It collapsed within 20 Rome by comparison took 700 years to grow, and 200-plus to collapse

> British empire was a rapid collapse [...] It collapsed within 20

It would be better to treat the British Empire and the United States as two forms of the same empire, as they both speak the same language The capital of the empire simply moved from London to Washington via an internal revolution, a process that's happened many times in the past, e.g. Lisbon to Rio de Janeiro, St Petersburg to Moscow, Xian to Hangzhou, Kyoto to Tokyo. So the British Empire/United States reached a peak after 400 years, and is now declining for perhaps a few hundred.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#85

Post by vorg »

whatshisface wrote: post #12
mac01021 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why _do_ people go there, and why don't you think Chinese developers can replicate that?

Dubai is fueled by oil money, something that China doesn't have a lot of (relative to their population size). You can explain a lot by looking at the oil money to population ratio of various polities. The ebb and flow of the balance sheets of Texas, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Venezuela and Norway all have a lot to do with the price of oil and their local production. In many places around the world, successful socialism mea…

The "middle of nowhere" location isn't just one city, but also a hub near the border of Kazakhstan which has been booming from abundant natural gas resources backed by a low population to land area density, and other useful exports such as a third of the world's uranium extraction.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#86

Post by sonnyblarney »

ssnistfajen wrote: post #55
sonnyblarney wrote: post #19

Unlike so much of the ugly narrative, even the ugly bits and pieces of this project (i.e. buying up ports, putting countries into debt traps etc.) - this one is different because there's a real, underlying material reality here. It's rational economic impetus, and probably a 'good idea' for the Chinese. Frankly, it may be good for many more than the Chinese. a) Other nations will be connected b) It can be 'two way' a…

Belt-and-Road itself is a reasonable plan, however the Chinese gov's political system determined that all of its projects are politically charged in one way or another. This is why many countries involved in the initiative are now trying to push back.

Yes. Whatever gets built is a good thing on the whole. But the politics will be a mess.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#87

Post by chriselles »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #76
chriselles wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed that dictatorships/authoritarianism is not preferred option. But does the integration of China/BAT offer an opportunity for China to inject it’s near 100% ubiquity of its domestic platforms onto its trading partners via debt trap diplomacy? Does the incredibly high level of Chinese government/commercial platform integration and ubiquity provide a competitive advantage with the bottom half of the planet over th…

debt trap diplomacy vs democracy is my guess why they will fail. Racism in China is extreme and as soon as the outsiders leave China for that reason, the cookie will crumble. Chinese only look out for themselves

Hypothetical scenario.

Rather than China seizing infrastructure collateral for debt trap loans instead China compels governments to push for ubiquity of a China/BAT superplatform, say "WeChat+" thru which all local government services and commerce will be conducted.

Also concurrently providing outsourced support for local regime continuity due to persistent surveillance provide by a "WeChat+" platform integrated with local and Chinese government.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#88

Post by NicoJuicy »

chriselles wrote: post #87
NicoJuicy wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

debt trap diplomacy vs democracy is my guess why they will fail. Racism in China is extreme and as soon as the outsiders leave China for that reason, the cookie will crumble. Chinese only look out for themselves

Hypothetical scenario. Rather than China seizing infrastructure collateral for debt trap loans instead China compels governments to push for ubiquity of a China/BAT superplatform, say "WeChat+" thru which all local government services and commerce will be conducted. Also concurrently providing outsourced support for local regime continuity due to persistent surveillance provide by a "WeChat+" platform integrated with…

Only China / Russia / Korea can currently push platforms because of dictatorship and censorship.

You are forgetting that the WTO was already asked by multiple countries for help. There are other options than China ;)

The source of the money is partially already from Europe and America. China borrows a lot of money too.

https://www.cgdev.org/blog/china-borrows-lot-money-world-ban...

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#89

Post by HeadsUpHigh »

vorg wrote: post #85
whatshisface wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dubai is fueled by oil money, something that China doesn't have a lot of (relative to their population size). You can explain a lot by looking at the oil money to population ratio of various polities. The ebb and flow of the balance sheets of Texas, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Venezuela and Norway all have a lot to do with the price of oil and their local production. In many places around the world, successful socialism mea…

The "middle of nowhere" location isn't just one city, but also a hub near the border of Kazakhstan which has been booming from abundant natural gas resources backed by a low population to land area density, and other useful exports such as a third of the world's uranium extraction.

But gas isn't as ubiquitous as oil and it's probably never going to be. Oil consumed everything in the last century and now even if it declines significantly chances are it will be replaced in certain markets by other energy sources. Gas doesn't have much opportunities for growth. And the same can be said about uranium and it's future. Sure it's not going to be completely phased away in the near future but even if the world is suddenly going to make a turn to nuclear it only makes sense that newer technologies will be used.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#90

Post by NicoJuicy »

petre wrote: post #77
NicoJuicy wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rome doesn't exist anymore. They got attacked on all fronts. What China is doing is modern colonization through loans and I can only see it backfire. It's a great scheme though, but at least Rome owned the places where it builded roads. Edit: downvotes, please comment why. I'll rather discuss :)

They built roads to invade those places in the first place, long before they "owned" them, dug out the gold and sent it to Rome. I'm not sure the Chinese strategy will work or if they'll see enough growth to support it. It's quite scary. I think I'd much rather prefer US bases to Chinese loans.

I don't think it's about ROI for railways. Economic logic doesn't make sense versus container ships.

It's more likely an excuse for investments along the road. Bait and switch

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