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The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

nytimes.com

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Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#41

Post by Findeton »

flavius29663 wrote: post #4
cagenut wrote: post #2

I still personally believe that the real underlying truth of "peak oil" was that as lower EROEI sources replaced higher ones, even though we would be able to grow the total number of barrels per day, the net-energy provided to drive the economy from those barrels would(is) plateau(ing). Everyone who points to fracking (or even worse tar sands) as a disproof of peak oil never understood the underlying argument about h…

If you think about it, a lot of the arabian/russian/corupt oligarchs money from oil were spent in ludicrous ways, like luxury beyond belief. The economy is getting less value from a fracked barrel, but those money are spent more wisely, returning back into the industry. This is not just sticking a pipe in the ground anymore, we are advancing our tech by using fracking. This is a new economic engine, maybe it's not as…

Well, too bad fracking in the US is on its way down. By the looks of it, it will last maybe 3 years before it peaks out. Then the barrels/day will crash. Not kidding though, and higher ups know... which is probably why the US is intervening in Venezuela, for example.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#42

Post by wolfram74 »

devmunchies wrote: post #34
saveThePlanet wrote: post #7

In my opinion a deflation is what the world and especially the nature needs. People have to stop wasting our limited resources.

I think this is a valid point of view. Has anyone ever stopped and asked if an ever-increasing GDP is sustainable?

This physicist has done a number of blogs on physical restraints on economic growth.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...

For example, if economic growth persists black body ration independent of power source raises the surface temperature of the earth to boiling in a few hundred years.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#43

Post by Spooky23 »

flavius29663 wrote: post #4
cagenut wrote: post #2

I still personally believe that the real underlying truth of "peak oil" was that as lower EROEI sources replaced higher ones, even though we would be able to grow the total number of barrels per day, the net-energy provided to drive the economy from those barrels would(is) plateau(ing). Everyone who points to fracking (or even worse tar sands) as a disproof of peak oil never understood the underlying argument about h…

If you think about it, a lot of the arabian/russian/corupt oligarchs money from oil were spent in ludicrous ways, like luxury beyond belief. The economy is getting less value from a fracked barrel, but those money are spent more wisely, returning back into the industry. This is not just sticking a pipe in the ground anymore, we are advancing our tech by using fracking. This is a new economic engine, maybe it's not as…

Most of it was stockpiled in US dollars.

End of the day, the dollar will inflate away in the long run. We will have created more value with oil than the shieks and Russian mob bosses yielded in dollar terms.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#44

Post by crazygringo »

stubbort wrote: post #12

Low grow is good. You can't sustain growth forever.

Can't you?

Growth just means the human race getting smarter at being productive, so we can grow more food with less effort, get around in transportation with less cars and drivers, buy the things we need at lower prices and with less friction.

You could argue that once literally everything is roboticized and automated with strong AI then there's no more growth... except humans will be looking for even better real-life experiences, better art, better teaching, better personal connections... and robots and technology will still evolve to be better designed, use less energy, use less resources...

I'm not sure I can imagine a world in which people didn't want anything else to be improved that could possibly be improved, which is what a world with no growth would have to be.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#45

Post by polxiform »

seppin wrote: post #29
ummonk wrote: post #5

Past Chinese growth has set expectations too high. It is ridiculous to point to a 6.6% growth rate and say it is low.

Also ridiculous to think those numbers were accurate.

In a lecture to senior business executives on Dec. 16, Renmin University economics professor Xiang Songzuo, said that a “very important institute” in China estimated that China’s GDP growth for 2018 should be about 1.67 percent or even negative, and not the statistics bureau’s official figure of 6.5 percent.

https://sinoinsider.com/2018/12/politics-watch-xis-reform-an...

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#46

Post by crazygringo »

saveThePlanet wrote: post #7

In my opinion a deflation is what the world and especially the nature needs. People have to stop wasting our limited resources.

What is "a deflation"? Do you mean a recession?

Or if you're talking about the phenomenon of economic deflation in general (the opposite of inflation), what does that have to do with nature? Is there a proven link that higher inflation rates lead to further negative environment impact? It's not clear to me why that would be the case.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#47

Post by killjoywashere »

Spooky23 wrote: post #37
jlarocco wrote: post #26

"That helps explain why American workers’ wages have been rising relatively slowly despite a low unemployment rate." Wouldn't surprise me if that's a big part of the problem. Despite tax cuts, low interest rates, and other corporate handouts, nothing's getting passed onto the people who do most of the spending. Inequality is higher than ever and the people making the most money need it the least.

Seriously. My family is relatively well off and our home was purchased back in 2004. Still, the steady march of expenses has certainly increased faster than income.

On a micro note, give YNAB a try. Diligent measurement has impressed on me how unconstrained our spending was. Cutting down the number of channels for payment goes a long way. There's a reason all the FAANG companies are happy to handle your credit cards.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#49

Post by outlace »

seppin wrote: post #29
ummonk wrote: post #5

Past Chinese growth has set expectations too high. It is ridiculous to point to a 6.6% growth rate and say it is low.

Also ridiculous to think those numbers were accurate.

The numbers may not be super accurate but if you've ever been to a big city in China in the past decade you would have witnessed circa 10% GDP growth with your own eyes.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#50

Post by roenxi »

cagenut wrote: post #2

I still personally believe that the real underlying truth of "peak oil" was that as lower EROEI sources replaced higher ones, even though we would be able to grow the total number of barrels per day, the net-energy provided to drive the economy from those barrels would(is) plateau(ing). Everyone who points to fracking (or even worse tar sands) as a disproof of peak oil never understood the underlying argument about h…

I tried to put together a case for this yesterday in a thread on Germany and coal. The comment is probably relevant here too, so I'll copy it with minor adjustments. The US-centric figures are because I was arguing about the US, but I think the picture actually covers a lot of countries.

There is some evidence that we are either hitting peak oil, or rising competition from previously-developing countries is choking the West out of energy markets. Energy prices are not cheap at the moment (I'm not accounting for inflation, but according a back of the envelope check these numbers are all growing much faster than inflation).

Crude oil prices went from $35 -> $70 around 2005 and have generally been floating around there since, with short periods of time (a year or two) where they drop down [0], coal did something similar from $50 -> $80 [1]. In the US, coal use for electricity immediately started dropping off, and Natural Gas has been replacing capacity but not overwhelmingly [2]. There was a 5 year period where gas (ie, car fuel) prices were just out of control, and a long period of time where they were just high.

Most of the US's energy is sourced from petroleum and coal [3, 4]. I'd suggest that although cheap natural gas has absorbed some of the shock, there is evidence of cost pressure. This all seems like a pretty substantial problem (read: threat to political stability at a grand scale), I'm constantly surprised it doesn't get more press.

[0] https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha... [1] https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-austr... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Electricity_by_type.pn... [3] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=10 [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Energy_Flow_US_2017.png [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States#Su...

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