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Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

reuters.com

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Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#41

Post by tomasien »

jartelt wrote: post #24

The price of the PV modules only makes up like 1/3 the cost of a utility scale solar installation and like 1/5 the cost of residential installations. A 10-15% increase in module cost will not slow solar adoption that much. The solar train will keep chugging along. We'll eventually get to a point where we generate 5% of the world's power with solar and people will still underestimate its impact and will still claim it…

This is actually accelerating and there's no real reason it should stop. I think it's going to happen slowly and then all at once.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#42

Post by dmix »

benj111 wrote: post #14
ChuckMcM wrote: post #3

Always over until it starts again. Note that the party is over (in this case) because it is threatening smaller businesses, not because there is a lack of capacity or that the "big guys" couldn't still make money at the reduced rate. In every industry where I have been aware of this this situation coming up (voluntary reduction in production in order to shore up prices), it works for a while and then people "cheat" a…

"The pain will mostly be felt by smaller Chinese producers, which lack international supply chains, triggering industry consolidation or forcing them to close, he added" So it looks like capacity is being reduced. Will capacity increase again? Probably. But your mention of cheating seems to be suggesting it's a cartel, I don't think that view is supported by the article, so have you got any other evidence?

Why would consolidation result in a lower capacity? All that's happening is bigger companies becoming bigger while a mix of gov policy and market forces during downturns squeezes out the little guys. Which is standard practice in modern state-capitalist societies.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#43

Post by syncsynchalt »

tomasien wrote: post #41
jartelt wrote: post #24

The price of the PV modules only makes up like 1/3 the cost of a utility scale solar installation and like 1/5 the cost of residential installations. A 10-15% increase in module cost will not slow solar adoption that much. The solar train will keep chugging along. We'll eventually get to a point where we generate 5% of the world's power with solar and people will still underestimate its impact and will still claim it…

This is actually accelerating and there's no real reason it should stop. I think it's going to happen slowly and then all at once.

We're already there, now that solar+storage is cheaper than coal.

Even my local electricity coop, which sends me climate change denial newsletters every month[1][2], is buying solar.

[1] https://ulfheim.net/files/currentwv.pdf

[2] https://ulfheim.net/files/CurrentWV3.pdf

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#44

Post by tossaccount123 »

jayd16 wrote: post #13
tossaccount123 wrote: post #7

no shit, this is what everybody with a brain has warned about China's MO is to subsidize Chinese businesses, restrict foreign competition internally, and steal foreign companies IP until they are bankrupt, while simultaneously being allowed to export their goods to those same countries with no penalty. Then they jack up the prices when all the competition is gone Everybody criticized Trump for the steel and solar tar…

[flagged]

explain how China is the world's fastest growing economy and has the fastest growing living standards while being one of, if not the most protectionist countries on earth?

According to most economists and their textbooks their growth should be terrible because they are so anti free trade

The only people who benefit from low tariffs are the rich, who can then outsource production and ship goods back into the country with no consequences. That's why income inequality has skyrocketed in the last few decades. The supposed savings of outsourcing weren't passed back to consumers, it was pocketed by the rich

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#45

Post by tossaccount123 »

jayd16 wrote: post #33
coldtea wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tariffs hurt US consumers US consumers are first and foremost US workers first -- and only consumers in as much as they have a job and they make enough to pay rent, consume, etc. So while they might not get cheap global shit as easily, they'll be able to get jobs easier...

If your manufacturing employer consumes steel and that steel is now more expensive it means less of those jobs, not more. You're only pulling money from other US citizens and companies so its not really a gain to the US overall. It increases the cost of US manufactured goods that have to buy tariff laden supplies. This ends up hurting US manufacturing exports over all. All of this assumes we actually do pay for US st…

That steel is only cheap short term. Once China has a monopoly they can charge whatever they want. The only reason Chinese steel is cheaper is because it's lower quality and their government subsidizes it with long term strategic intent

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#46

Post by reitzensteinm »

est31 wrote: post #32
reitzensteinm wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is still only a moderate emitter per capita, though it's caught up to Europe in recent years. Considering the wealth disparity it's a little hard to criticize.

If the entire world would be emitting like europe or north america do, then we'd be so doomed. Even if europe by then would be zero carbon it wouldn't really matter. Of course, being the historic polluters, we shouldn't point with fingers here. They do have a right to wealth like any other economy in the world. But I think that wealth + renewable energy sources are possible. China has giant deserts. The only real pro…

All I'm saying is we shouldn't be pointing fingers. Expecting poor nations to stay in poverty by making sacrifices we refuse to is both unfair and won't work.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#47

Post by anonymous5133 »

dmix wrote: post #42
benj111 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The pain will mostly be felt by smaller Chinese producers, which lack international supply chains, triggering industry consolidation or forcing them to close, he added" So it looks like capacity is being reduced. Will capacity increase again? Probably. But your mention of cheating seems to be suggesting it's a cartel, I don't think that view is supported by the article, so have you got any other evidence?

Why would consolidation result in a lower capacity? All that's happening is bigger companies becoming bigger while a mix of gov policy and market forces during downturns squeezes out the little guys. Which is standard practice in modern state-capitalist societies.

Bigger companies aren't going to buy up smaller production that is not efficient. The smaller production just goes offline and gets scrapped. Solar panel production is at the point where you need to be doing economies of scale to really churn a profit at it.

You guys need to read up on what happens when a government subsidies something. The subsidies allows inefficient producers to stay in business and it also results in over production....which is what pushes the price artificially low. Once the subsidies end. The weakest go out of business and only the most efficient producers stay in business.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#48

Post by Gibbon1 »

philipkglass wrote: post #22
stcredzero wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Often, one sees industries making changes because market forces have made the transaction cost of manufacturing too onerous. Some industries in that case will consolidate and vertically integrate. If the pain from uncertain prices and supply gets too great, could the solar industry start with mergers and vertical integration? Or is it far too early for that?

Yes, mergers have been common in solar for a while. This is one of the top manufacturers today: https://www.hanwha-qcells.com/ A Chinese cell and module manufacturer acquired a Chinese ingot manufacturer. Korea's Hanwha Group subsequently acquired this merged Chinese entity as well as the German solar manufacturer Q-Cells. The merged Hanwha Q-Cells is vertically integrated from cells to modules. A handful of manufact…

I suspect vertical integration works when your key intermediate manufacturing inputs aren't commodities. And you have enough scale to overcome production granularity issues.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#50

Post by selimthegrim »

adventured wrote: post #31
reitzensteinm wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is still only a moderate emitter per capita, though it's caught up to Europe in recent years. Considering the wealth disparity it's a little hard to criticize.

The earth doesn't care, so to speak, about whether it's per capita or not, it only cares about the total global output. The consequence of having 1.4 billion people in your society, is that you don't get to pollute at the rate of a nation with one million people that outputs 10x more pollution per capita. Is that unfair? No. I don't think per capita equality of pollution is the most important factor in this. As a soc…

Which authoritarian militia is in question?
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