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Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

reuters.com

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Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#31

Post by adventured »

reitzensteinm wrote: post #30
est31 wrote: post #16

Perhaps more worrying than this change is the recent focus on expanding China's coal plants [1]. China already now is responsible for 45% of the global coal electricity. Just look at this diagram [0]. And with their one-belt-one-road initiative, they are building coal plants around the world. [0]: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants [1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2019/01/23/coa…

China is still only a moderate emitter per capita, though it's caught up to Europe in recent years. Considering the wealth disparity it's a little hard to criticize.

The earth doesn't care, so to speak, about whether it's per capita or not, it only cares about the total global output.

The consequence of having 1.4 billion people in your society, is that you don't get to pollute at the rate of a nation with one million people that outputs 10x more pollution per capita.

Is that unfair? No. I don't think per capita equality of pollution is the most important factor in this. As a society China has to bear the consequences of their immense population and its impact on the earth. Pre-emptively I'll note this isn't a defense of any other nation's high per capita pollution output level.

Globally we have to take the China output very seriously, and we can afford to not be nearly so concerned about the 10x output of the one million person nation because it's not a dire threat to the planet (which isn't the same thing as not caring about their output, it's a difference of one threatening human existence and the other not; I'm far more concerned about North Korea's nukes & missiles than the localized authoritarian militia activity in a tiny nation - even though they might both be reprehensible governments, one is far more dangerous).

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#32

Post by est31 »

reitzensteinm wrote: post #30
est31 wrote: post #16

Perhaps more worrying than this change is the recent focus on expanding China's coal plants [1]. China already now is responsible for 45% of the global coal electricity. Just look at this diagram [0]. And with their one-belt-one-road initiative, they are building coal plants around the world. [0]: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants [1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2019/01/23/coa…

China is still only a moderate emitter per capita, though it's caught up to Europe in recent years. Considering the wealth disparity it's a little hard to criticize.

If the entire world would be emitting like europe or north america do, then we'd be so doomed. Even if europe by then would be zero carbon it wouldn't really matter.

Of course, being the historic polluters, we shouldn't point with fingers here. They do have a right to wealth like any other economy in the world. But I think that wealth + renewable energy sources are possible. China has giant deserts. The only real problem is energy storage, but until a good cheap solution is found, you could just use conventional sources until the night or if there's no sun.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#33

Post by jayd16 »

coldtea wrote: post #28
jayd16 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Tariffs hurt US consumers US consumers are first and foremost US workers first -- and only consumers in as much as they have a job and they make enough to pay rent, consume, etc. So while they might not get cheap global shit as easily, they'll be able to get jobs easier...

If your manufacturing employer consumes steel and that steel is now more expensive it means less of those jobs, not more. You're only pulling money from other US citizens and companies so its not really a gain to the US overall. It increases the cost of US manufactured goods that have to buy tariff laden supplies. This ends up hurting US manufacturing exports over all. All of this assumes we actually do pay for US steel but the reality is we'll just go to the next cheapest supplier which may or may not be local.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#34

Post by apo »

Solar panel prices tumbled around 30 percent last year after China, the world’s largest producer, cut subsidies to shrink its bloated solar industry, pushing smaller manufacturers to the brink of collapse.

1. Cutting subsidies should raise prices. I guess the subsidy cut could have offset a steeper decline, but the article is full of head-scratchers like this one.

2. When has China ever cut a major subsidy?

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#35

Post by rmah »

adventured wrote: post #31
reitzensteinm wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is still only a moderate emitter per capita, though it's caught up to Europe in recent years. Considering the wealth disparity it's a little hard to criticize.

The earth doesn't care, so to speak, about whether it's per capita or not, it only cares about the total global output. The consequence of having 1.4 billion people in your society, is that you don't get to pollute at the rate of a nation with one million people that outputs 10x more pollution per capita. Is that unfair? No. I don't think per capita equality of pollution is the most important factor in this. As a soc…

But what about the province of Sichuan? They have about the same population as Germany. Shouldn't they be allowed to pollute as much under your theory? After all, Germany is simply part of the EU.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#36

Post by rmah »

porpoisely wrote: post #17
jayd16 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Tariffs help US businesses and american workers. It's why the first major act of congress was a tariff. https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/encyclopedias-almanacs-... The US economic might was built on tariffs protecting american businesses. We became the largest economy in the world in the late 1800s due partly due to tariffs. It's also why europe, japan, korea, china, etc used tariffs to become economy powerhouses…

"Tariffs help US businesses and american workers. It's why the first major act of congress was a tariff."

Well, one can argue about whether or not tariffs help domestic businesses and workers, but that was not the reason tariffs were one of the first major acts of congress.

It was one of the first acts because tariffs were THE major revenue source for the US federal government. Remember, those were the days before things like income tax.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#37

Post by Brakenshire »

apo wrote: post #34

Solar panel prices tumbled around 30 percent last year after China, the world’s largest producer, cut subsidies to shrink its bloated solar industry, pushing smaller manufacturers to the brink of collapse. 1. Cutting subsidies should raise prices. I guess the subsidy cut could have offset a steeper decline, but the article is full of head-scratchers like this one. 2. When has China ever cut a major subsidy?

A poster below said these were installation subsidies, which makes sense. So demand fell, there was a supply glut, and prices fell.

55% of solar capacity installed in 2017 was installed in China, so a fall there is going to have a big impact on the global market.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#38

Post by tzs »

adventured wrote: post #31
reitzensteinm wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is still only a moderate emitter per capita, though it's caught up to Europe in recent years. Considering the wealth disparity it's a little hard to criticize.

The earth doesn't care, so to speak, about whether it's per capita or not, it only cares about the total global output. The consequence of having 1.4 billion people in your society, is that you don't get to pollute at the rate of a nation with one million people that outputs 10x more pollution per capita. Is that unfair? No. I don't think per capita equality of pollution is the most important factor in this. As a soc…

> The consequence of having 1.4 billion people in your society, is that you don't get to pollute at the rate of a nation with one million people that outputs 10x more pollution per capita.

So if China were to split up into a whole bunch of separate countries, it would be acceptable for each of those countries to have a higher per capita pollution rate than is acceptable for current China?

As you noted, the Earth doesn't care. That's why per capita is the correct way to handle this. Otherwise, whether a given set of people producing a given level of pollution is acceptable changes depending on how you draw arbitrary political boundaries among those people.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#39

Post by coredog64 »

apo wrote: post #34

Solar panel prices tumbled around 30 percent last year after China, the world’s largest producer, cut subsidies to shrink its bloated solar industry, pushing smaller manufacturers to the brink of collapse. 1. Cutting subsidies should raise prices. I guess the subsidy cut could have offset a steeper decline, but the article is full of head-scratchers like this one. 2. When has China ever cut a major subsidy?

Depending on the structure of the subsidy, it’s possible for a cut to lower prices. For example, EV buyers get a tax credit for their purchase. A big chunk of that surplus is captured by the seller. Without the tax credit, the natural price would drop. Compare the price of a new Fiat 500 EV to a used one. The latter is practically free, and it’s not the natural depreciation of a used car.

Re: Party is over for dirt-cheap solar panels, says China executive

#40

Post by greenleafjacob »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #3

Always over until it starts again. Note that the party is over (in this case) because it is threatening smaller businesses, not because there is a lack of capacity or that the "big guys" couldn't still make money at the reduced rate. In every industry where I have been aware of this this situation coming up (voluntary reduction in production in order to shore up prices), it works for a while and then people "cheat" a…

predict: China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW. https://predictionbook.com/predictions/194304
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