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AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

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Re: AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

#151
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AI lost because it completely messed up the response to the immortal drop, nothing to do with micro.

Mana got himself in the same situation where he was surrounded by stalkers on multiple sides, but this time the micro wasn’t so crazy that he couldn’t manage it, and he was able to take on one group at a time. The immortal drop, while unanswered, was not really that effectual.

But it was answered: AlphaStar pulled a huge stalker army that was about to hit MaNa's base all the way back home to (attempt to) answer the drop, repeatedly. If you have more complexity to your army but fewer army units, as MaNa did, a delay like that is how you win the game.

Re: AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

#152
post #52
post #41

Every year or so we get another huge advance... Well, more accurately, something comes along to benchmark the state of AI research against a human activity. Then come the HN comments. For Alpha Go: Oh this is impressive but can't generalize. Wake me up when it doesn't have to have information precoded/doesn't learn from human players For alpha go 0: So this is cool but not amazing because they're all perfect informat…

What does it matter, at this point? The proof is in the pudding, and we are making more and more pudding everyday. Instead of caring about naysayers, we need to be working under the assumption AI is here to stay and rapidly expanding in scope, and we need to build the social and political structures to be able to handle it.

>we need to build the social and political structures to be able to handle it.

This would be a massive waste of resources depending on how far you misinterpret the nature of the “AI thats here to stay”. There is little to support that we’re near-approaching a general purpose, “true” AI, the kind of superintelligent, creative, potentially world-ending and self-improving thinking machine that brings us to the singularity. Its much fairer to characterize current technologies as an algorithm that excels in certain fields, with distinct limitations that we’re still exploring, and have some idea but not perfect of where those limits are.

Functionally, they just find probabilities matrixes for a certain sequence of actions, and can search the problem space much faster than we did before, by simulating the event indefinitely. And they come with the issue that anything that can’t be well-simulated and quickly can’t be “AI’d”, as well as the common issue of catastrophically failing due to not actually understanding the object in total (eg change a picture of a cat to an ostrich by editing key pixels). And afaik, they’ve shown no ability to “change the problem”, a key component of creativity (if you can’t find a good answer to something, consider changing the question; our “AI”s do not.)

And this is naturally why they excel at games (almost by definition a repeatedable simulation) that typically have a very well-defined question. But at the same time, we don’t expect current AI to be capable of taking its “strategies” forward to the next update of starcraft (the problem changes) without re-searching a lot of the problem space (there exist algorithms for training future networks; I don’t know how much progress they’ve made), because they don’t really have strategies in the first place, or a real model for how things interact (they struggle to predict new interactions without sinulating them, or rather, “experiencing” them).

Which is also why its difficult to imagine AI’s will ever truly be driving cars around with the current tech — rather, they’ll succeed likely as an awkward combination of nueral networks, expert systems, hueristics and safeguards. We’d naturally expect most sci-fi usecases of AI to be the same — eg political decision making. And they’ll be limited to the extent that we can render simulations.

And if we pretend these distinctly limited algorithms are in fact the predecessors to our post-singularity successors, simply because they’re able to do a few things we weren’t really expecting (just as computers have proved to be a whole lot more capable than the 60’s general population thought, but far less than what 60’s scifi thought), we’ll do a whole lot of work for quite a bit of nothing.

The fact that its called AI doesn’t mean we’re quickly approaching star trek’s Data AI. It didn’t mean it in the last few AI hype cycles either.

Re: AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

#153
post #71

The gameplay was really interesting - i wonder if we'll start seeing the over-saturation of the main prior to first expand in pro games?

I think this was one of the most interesting aspects of seeing AlphaStar play.

MaNa already started to use oversaturation when he played live game against the AI. I'd bet soon this will be the new meta, and everyone will play this way

Re: AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

#155

It's certainly interesting but reminds me of DeepBlue playing Jeopardy against humans but having nd the questions fed to it electronically. Half the challenge of the game is buzzing in first. For humans, requires reading/listening and potentially making a judgement they you'll be able to answer the question and buzzing in before even hearing the whole thing. Same thing for StarCraft. If I could nap out my movers in a…

They mention that the latency of the neural network, from input to action, is around 360ms, which is on the lower end of professional level.

It can do context switches between micro/macro very quickly, which is where it's strength lie, and it did some very impressive micro in the later matches against MaNa, but it didn't win solely off the back of "computers are fast".

Re: AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the mass stalker battles, the AI APM exceeded 1000 a few times, and no doubt that most of that was precisely targeted. Whereas a human doing 500 APM micro is obviously going to be far more imprecise. I think a far more interesting limitation would be to cap APM at 150 or so, or to artificially limit action precision with some sort of virtual mouse that reduced accuracy as APM increased.

I understand the spirit of the proposal but that would be like limiting a computer to add at most two numbers per second. It's OK if we want an interesting contest against humans but it wouldn't be a fair estimate of a computer math capability. It's also not the point of using computers to do math instead of a room full of accountants. I'm OK with the AI going as fast as it can and play superhuman strategies because…

But it's important to be clear about what's being measured. If the AI can take and successfully win engagements that no human could because of their superior micro, it's not necessarily winning via superior strategy (as is claimed).

Re: AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You play the game as it's written. Come back with another version of StarCraft that isn't so micro-intensive and we can see how the AI does on that. Chess and Go don't have any form of micro and AIs are nevertheless dominant there. I'd say, give AI development another year and I wouldn't expect there to be any kind of game, in any genre, that humans can beat AIs at. Whether it's Chess, Go, other classical board games…

> Chess and Go don't have any form of micro and AIs are nevertheless dominant there. Yes, but chess and go have a tiny problem space compared to something like Starcraft. People want to see an AI win because it’s smart, not because it’s a computer capable of things impossible for humans. If the goal was perfect micro they could write computer programs to do that 10 years ago.

"Yes but X has a tiny problem space compared to something like Y. People want to see an AI win because it's smart, not because it crunches numbers."

1980: X = Tic-tac-toe, Y = Chequers

1990: X = Chequers, Y = Chess

2000: X = Chess, Y = Go

2019: X = Go, Y = StarCraft

2030: X = Any video game, Y = ???

Re: AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

#159
Because that is what we need to teach AI to do, build bases, extract resources, and build units to go out and kill everything else on the map :-)

It is an impressive result, it seems pretty clear to me that as a force multiplier for developing decision tree software this technique works faster and more effectively than the waterfall techniques, and it gets better post release. But beyond the game theoretic applications I am still looking for an application where it reliably creates a better back end code generator for a new architecture faster than a person can.

Re: AlphaStar: Mastering the Real-Time Strategy Game StarCraft II

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the mass stalker battles, the AI APM exceeded 1000 a few times, and no doubt that most of that was precisely targeted. Whereas a human doing 500 APM micro is obviously going to be far more imprecise. I think a far more interesting limitation would be to cap APM at 150 or so, or to artificially limit action precision with some sort of virtual mouse that reduced accuracy as APM increased.

I understand the spirit of the proposal but that would be like limiting a computer to add at most two numbers per second. It's OK if we want an interesting contest against humans but it wouldn't be a fair estimate of a computer math capability. It's also not the point of using computers to do math instead of a room full of accountants. I'm OK with the AI going as fast as it can and play superhuman strategies because…

Chess and Go both limit computers to one move per human move, and they’re still very interesting games for AI. You’ll always have limitations. When you’re playing a game, the limitations are largely arbitrary, and you choose them to make the game better achieve whatever goal you’re after.
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