61–70 of 92 posts
The Economist has historically been a big supporter of the EU and globalization. Something has shifted in their perspective. They were also pretty downbeat about the EU's prospects while discussing the Aachen Treaty between France and Germany that was signed yesterday. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/01/17/france-and-germ...
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Only? I lost enough money in 1 day that I lost my trust in the Swiss National Bank. I'm not complaining though, I started diversifying to other asset classes and easyly made it back, so I view it as a lesson learned.
Guess what, monetary policy about managing your personal check book. The SNB acted pretty well, one of the best in the world and the Swiss economy was much better of then most comparable countries because we could devalue when people like drove up the demand for CHF and almost pushed Switzerland in a deflation. That might be good for your check book but it would be a disaster for the economy.
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The EU doesn't have a looming student loan crisis, or a health crisis due to opioid epidemics. In terms of human suffering caused by these two issues alone I have a hard time believing the EU is worse off.
I fail to see the looming student loan crisis given that they can't be discharged in bankruptcy.
[0]:https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/twenty-two-percent-of-studen...
The Economist has historically been a big supporter of the EU and globalization. Something has shifted in their perspective. They were also pretty downbeat about the EU's prospects while discussing the Aachen Treaty between France and Germany that was signed yesterday. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/01/17/france-and-germ...
I still cant believe the Aachen Treaty is going forward.
[1] https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/chancellor/germany-an...
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They don't seem to make the link that maybe Brexit is not such a bad idea after all, which seems a logical conclusion to me.
You think a recession in Europe will impact Britain less after Brexit? It’s not as if Britain will have more trading options.
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They don't seem to make the link that maybe Brexit is not such a bad idea after all, which seems a logical conclusion to me.
The link between brexit and what? Also, why do you think brexit is not a bad idea?
That I think is the saving grace of Brexit. Investor confidence in Italian public debt will evaporate sooner or later, and I don’t see Germany allowing and paying for a bailout of Italy, given how they reacted to the bailout of Greece. The UK will likely look like a safe heaven for capitals when that happens.
How does Brexit make the UK attractive in the event of a near-term Eurozone crisis? The grim economic outlook if the UK's major trade partners are all in deep recession isn't improved by it having lost a lot of that trade earlier in the year for other reasons, and its economy isn't going to reinvent itself overnight.
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Because if (or when) Italy is about to introduce capital controls to prevent its banking system from collapsing, investors will not make a decision based on the industrial outlook of the UK, but based on the stability of its legal and banking system, and its independance from Italy's financial woes.
But the stability of the UK's legal and banking system receives precisely zero benefit from Brexit (quite the opposite) and the UK gains further "independence from Italy's financial woes" from Brexit only inasmuch as it would lose some of the trade it might be expected to lose in the event of a Eurozone recession a little earlier. (I could just about see how the UK would benefit from being less exposed to Italian fin…
That I think is the saving grace of Brexit. Investor confidence in Italian public debt will evaporate sooner or later, and I don’t see Germany allowing and paying for a bailout of Italy, given how they reacted to the bailout of Greece. The UK will likely look like a safe heaven for capitals when that happens.
Investors already voted against pound (look at the exchange rate). Brexit shown them that U.K. is no longer predictable and stable. And since after Brexit it will be equally expensive to move funds from Eurozone to U.K. or to any other country - there are likely to choose somewhere else.
A huge issue is the stagnating population growth in European countries. Over the last 10 years Germany, Italy, Spain have only barely risen in population. Of course that means lots more retirees and fewer workers. Maybe flat economy is actually a good outcome as can be expected. One of my favorite stats is that 100 years ago the population of Europe was nearly 30% of the world's total. Now its Finally Yes I dont thin…
https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/generate/All/glo...
The taxes in Europe are too high and Government and Welfare programs need to be scaled way back. The fact that you have for example millions of young foreign men walking on foot all the way through the continent to access welfare-rich States indicates that something is amiss.