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Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

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Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#291

Post by kamyarg »

BjoernKW wrote: post #126

First, salaried rank and file software developers on average certainly don't make 300-400k per year. Those working at Silicon Valley FAANG companies still account for only a minute percentage of software developers in the US and certainly in the world. How that is supposed to constitute a bubble is beyond me. Then, payment for work isn't (or shouldn't be) about (perceived) equality and it isn't about compensation for…

> perhaps the more reasonable hours and better work environments in software development should serve as a model for other work environments

!00% agree

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#292

Post by fnord123 »

ams6110 wrote: post #167
nostrademons wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MongoDB didn't become a public company through innovations in fundamental distributed database technology or even through good engineering. They became a public company because once Javascript became adequate for building client software, there was a strong incentive to build MVPs using the same data structures from client to server to DB, and once you build an MVP that gets adoption there's a strong incentive not to…

> software that solves the problem (poorly) now is better than software that doesn't exist. That has always been the case and is about as good a one-line summary of the software industry as I can think of.

It could be a one line summary of Richard Gabriel's famous essay "The Rise of "Worse is Better""

https://www.jwz.org/doc/worse-is-better.html

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#293

Post by NicoJuicy »

shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

This

The best teacher has been helping collegues. I have been programming a lot better ( less errors and even without sometimes running the application when I'm pretty sure), because I think and analyze more upfront than I used to.

Some things come back, but it's rarely related to me ( eg. last moment spec changes).

I do have to watch out, I notice that basing my code on someone else is ok. But, they always have faulty code in hard to test areas. So make testing easier on things that are hard to test is my next motto.

Also, helping others is a pretty huge timesink :(

Ps. Being in the zone does wonders lately

PS2. There was another threat about videolan yesterday. And nobody heard the entire story about https. I gave the VLC developers the benefit of the doubt, not knowing everything off their infrastructure. . A lot of the comments here on HN disagreed with me ( stole silently upvoted though).

Today I saw a blog post about why..

It was infrastructure based...

I can't understand why I was practically the only one with another view in the subject in this community, where developers come together.

FYI:

Comments are in my history. Mostly on the videolan topic. It's all recent

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#294

Post by vkou »

nostrademons wrote: post #147
convolvatron wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i'll just leave this here https://books.google.com/books/about/Distributed_Databases.h...

MongoDB didn't become a public company through innovations in fundamental distributed database technology or even through good engineering. They became a public company because once Javascript became adequate for building client software, there was a strong incentive to build MVPs using the same data structures from client to server to DB, and once you build an MVP that gets adoption there's a strong incentive not to…

> Fundamental CS tech was arguably better in the 1970s and 1980s, because it moved more slowly and you had time to get the details right. That doesn't matter if you're building say a mobile Ethereum wallet in 2018, because you're building for the user expectations of today, they don't care about data integrity or security as long as it doesn't fail during the period where they're deciding which tech to use, and software that solves the problem (poorly) now is better than software that doesn't exist.

I believe you are a victim of survivorship bias.

There was plenty of shitty software in the 70s and 80s. The difference between then and now is that we haven't been able to wait for 4 decades, to see what software of 2018 stood the test of time.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#295

Post by fucking_tragedy »

joshuamorton wrote: post #188
fucking_tragedy wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're replying in a thread about how those very same FAANG companies colluded to keep engineer compensation artificially low.

Yeah but even at that point faang (or well at that point apple, Ms, google, Netflix didn't exist and Facebook broke the cartel) compensation was significantly more than people in Europe were making.

And with anti-collusion labor protections, engineers stood to make even more.

In the US, union workers make between 10% to 30% more than their non-union peers[1].

You're comparing pay across two different economies and only looking at unionization as a variable. It's like wondering why engineer rates in Omaha, Nebraska aren't on par with those in New York, and concluding that it has something to do with differing fire codes.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/04/art2full.pdf

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#296

Post by trinkwallopy »

hello_moto wrote: post #208
mgkimsal wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nothing frustrates me more than having my job responsibilities include training someone with no initiative. Years ago, I worked someplace where a colleague was tasked with working with another developer on project X. After about 15 minutes it was clear the other developer ... wasn't? A web project, and this person had been employed as a "web developer" for at least several months. Questions like "how does this info…

Sadly reputation comes from result. He was given 2 tasks and he only delivers one result. I know this sounds... not ideal... but it is what it is. His manager probably has to operate at the same level of expectation: given 3 tasks by his manager (or director), either you finish all 3 or you're less dependable.

That just sounds like a place that doesn’t have smart people. He was done a favor because it forced him to move on to somewhere better

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#297

Post by trinkwallopy »

sam0x17 wrote: post #27
shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

I agree, but the real bubble that has popped is that non-techies have become more selective in judging the skills of programmers. Gone are the days where being able to stand up an FTP server and display a mysql query result in a web page means you can write your own ticket into any tech job in the world.

Well ok if your standards for yourself are that low.... nothing more to say

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#298

Post by hackandtrip »

zackmorris wrote: post #257
cheez wrote: post #2

As someone who hires programmers, no. It is difficult to hire good people. The only way I can successfully hire low-cost programmers is by building a system/machine for creating and releasing software that does not require a high level of intelligence/creativity. The only people that can make high margins in programming-heavy industries are those who can do this or some sort of defensible moat. As a programmer myself…

I am still basically an entry-level developer even though I've been doing it for 30 years (20 for money). The way I see this playing out is, something like behavior-driven development (BDD) where the business folks describe the functionality they desire, and programmers write up the backend logic. Then as AI progresses to AGI, a higher and higher percentage of that backend code will be generated by machine learning.…

Your argument is based on AGI, something we have no idea if will ever happen, and most likely nearly as close as you think.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#299

Post by spenczar5 »

esoterica wrote: post #182
driverdan wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we are looking at the top 1% of software engineers Working for a big company that pays well does not mean you're at the top 1% of software engineers. It means you're willing to do what it takes to secure that job and maintain it, including moving somewhere many don't want to live.

It means you're in the top 1% of software engineers in the only metric that matters.

To be explicit, you're saying the only metric that matters (when we're ranking software engineers) is how well-paid a software engineer is?

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#300

Post by joshuamorton »

fucking_tragedy wrote: post #295
joshuamorton wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but even at that point faang (or well at that point apple, Ms, google, Netflix didn't exist and Facebook broke the cartel) compensation was significantly more than people in Europe were making.

And with anti-collusion labor protections, engineers stood to make even more. In the US, union workers make between 10% to 30% more than their non-union peers[1]. You're comparing pay across two different economies and only looking at unionization as a variable. It's like wondering why engineer rates in Omaha, Nebraska aren't on par with those in New York, and concluding that it has something to do with differing fir…

> And with anti-collusion labor protections, engineers stood to make even more.

Correct, but these protections exist (and existed at the time) independent from a union.

> In the US, union workers make between 10% to 30% more than their non-union peers

There's very few high-skill jobs which are commonly unionized. In a market where supply is greater than demand, then yes unions have absolutely shown to improve worker outcomes[1]. I'm not aware of any evidence for markets where demand outstrips supply (like that for skilled software engineers). It's not immediately clear that union protections would be beneficial.

>You're comparing pay across two different economies and only looking at unionization as a variable.

No, I'm simply pointing out that your flippant response to esoterica doesn't actually address the question. If unions are better for workers, why is it that a non-union area !!with a cartel depressing wages!! was still substantially better for workers than a unioned area with no such issue?

Saying "oh the market is different" ignores the question of why the market is different.

[1]: Indeed, that's kind of exactly what happened with this cartel. Facebook wanted to hire skilled engineers, and was willing to pay more, so broke the cartel. That kind of thing won't happen when workers are generally equivalent, but SWEs aren't.

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