Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble? • Hacker News Board

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#201

Post by jimbokun » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 7:54 PM UTC

swimorsinka wrote: post #194

jimbokun wrote: post #191

"But the fact that it’s only happened in the last 5-10 years makes me wonder if it will last forever." This is absolutely false. There was a lot of talk about "Microsoft Millionaires" in the 80s and 90s.

Early employees who cash out are a bit different than the rank and file.

No, "Microsoft Millionaires" referred to a large percentage of Microsoft employees becoming millionaires and how they changed the Seattle economy. Stories like, don't kick the poorly groomed guy in shorts and flip flops out of your expensive sports car show room, because he might be there to pay full price in cash for a car and drive it off the lot.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#202

Post by Hithredin » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 7:54 PM UTC

About the last sentence: If only we will still need developers in the coming 10 to 20 years... I hardly see how 'AI' (note the quotes) could not replace them.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#203

Post by jimbokun » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 7:57 PM UTC

esoterica wrote: post #179

pmiller2 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, do you make 500k? If not, then why not? It’s possible in the US, but the median US household income is 1/8 that. The vast majority of workers, probably including most software engineers, ate better off at $50k but not having to worry about insurance if they get laid off, and getting 3-6 weeks notice when being let go (among other things).

The people pulling bubbly SV comp numbers (i.e. the topic of the thread) are not part of that majority though.

Probably not very many of them are making $500k, either.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#204

Post by username90 » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 7:58 PM UTC

est31 wrote: post #83

matz1 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is hard because you have to convince many other people to agree. It's easier for me to just undercut other people by taking less pay. I can for example going remote and live in low living cost area.

On the side of the employees, unions have proven themselves to be good means to improve the situation for employees. Here in Germany they definitely have helped in many industries. My comment was more about the companies though which may form cartels to drive down employee wages. Companies forming cartels is illegal, while unions are legal in many places.

Unions are basically legalized price fixing. What happens is that the union negotiate a "fair" price, and then all companies decide to pay no more than said "fair" price. See for example (original is in Swedish):

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#205

Post by rohansingh » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 7:58 PM UTC

esoterica wrote: post #185

BjoernKW wrote: post #126

First, salaried rank and file software developers on average certainly don't make 300-400k per year. Those working at Silicon Valley FAANG companies still account for only a minute percentage of software developers in the US and certainly in the world. How that is supposed to constitute a bubble is beyond me. Then, payment for work isn't (or shouldn't be) about (perceived) equality and it isn't about compensation for…

Pay is about the intersection of supply and demand, which is influenced by but not purely a function of the value created by the work. Insane work hours props up wages by decreasing supply since lots of people don't want to work 90 hours a week.

Insane work hours also reduces demand for workers, though. If it's a norm in an industry for employees to work 80 or 90 hours, an employer might hire fewer people than if folks only worked 40 hours.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#206

Post by stunt » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 8:01 PM UTC

ttcbj wrote: post #38

I think there are a number of caveats to this article: 1. The amount that a company can sustainably pay you is dependent on how much value your efforts have in its industry. Software has significantly higher margins than medicine, law, or almost anything else. As long as those margins are sustained, it is possible to pay high salaries. (As buffet says: I'd rather work for a mediocre company in a great industry than a…

And also, Do not forget that only a small percentage of developers are making those numbers. And that is quite normal since those companies are in the Fortune 500 most valuable companies in the world!

Comparing that percentage, you would see the same pattern in every other industry. If you do something uncommonly good, you make more than everyone else in the industry. Same applies to all other skills that are mentioned in the article. If you pick the top earners in law, medicine, etc, you will easily find higher numbers.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#207

Post by devoply » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 8:02 PM UTC

seem_2211 wrote: post #155

devoply wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they should quit and find another company.

You can't keep a significant portion of the upside without taking on more risk.

> Privatizing profits and socializing losses refers to the practice of treating firms' earnings as the rightful property of their shareholders, while treating losses as a responsibility that society as a whole must shoulder, for example through taxpayer-funded subsidies or bailouts.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#208

Post by hello_moto » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 8:03 PM UTC

mgkimsal wrote: post #105

titanomachy wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've worked with good people at every company I've been at... but the nice thing about being at a top company is I never have to deal with totally incompetent or helpless people. Nothing frustrates me more than having my job responsibilities include training someone with no initiative. The selection process seems to do a good job of keeping out the lowest tier at least, although we openly acknowledge that we miss a l…

> Nothing frustrates me more than having my job responsibilities include training someone with no initiative. Years ago, I worked someplace where a colleague was tasked with working with another developer on project X. After about 15 minutes it was clear the other developer ... wasn't? A web project, and this person had been employed as a "web developer" for at least several months. Questions like "how does this info…

Sadly reputation comes from result.

He was given 2 tasks and he only delivers one result.

I know this sounds... not ideal... but it is what it is.

His manager probably has to operate at the same level of expectation: given 3 tasks by his manager (or director), either you finish all 3 or you're less dependable.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#209

Post by gldalmaso » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 8:05 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #176

zanny wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

End user tasks might be able to be automated into dumb programming jobs, but companies have tried for decades to down-source their programming and it always falls flat on its face. Even if you have library support to hand hold your budget coders, even if you use a lot of them, even if you give them all the time in the world, they will produce more complicated, less coherent, less stable, buggier, and harder to modify…

"any programming environment you can never stop someone from iterating by index over a binary searchable tree for a specific element in it." SQL solved that problem a long time ago. You write SELECT, the query optimizer figures out how, using any available indices.

I think that misses the point. SQL does not prevent a junior dev from selecting many more rows than he needs to and then proceed to iterate over them naively.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#210

Post by organsnyder » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 8:06 PM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #190

TeMPOraL wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Good programmers I know also overestimate the skill needed to earn high salary in this job. You don't have to go up the learning curve much; these days, you just learn yourself JS a little bit and go for a webdev job, making shit cod…

So then when are doctors going to start making less? And investment bankers, too?

Doctors are already seeing commoditization as healthcare systems consolidate and adopt standardized workflows (aided by EHR implementations). And nurse practitioners and physicians assistants are doing much of the work once done exclusively by doctors, but with less training and lower pay.

It wouldn't surprise me if index funds have caused a decline in earnings for investment bankers.