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Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

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Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#31

Post by devoply »

jjeaff wrote: post #28
devoply wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything good programmers are underpaid. If you are making your company a mil, you should be getting 1/2.

But what if another programmer is willing to make me a million for only 25%? That's how markets work. You get paid what what the market will bear, not what you "should" make.

As I said good programmers are underpaid. They should figure out how much they are making their companies and ask for more. The market can often afford to pay more, if you just negotiate better. You can also unionize to get your employers closer to what you are worth to them rather than what they are worth to you.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#32

Post by nouveaux »

devoply wrote: post #21
shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

If anything good programmers are underpaid. If you are making your company a mil, you should be getting 1/2.

I'm all for programmers getting paid more. However, by your logic, if the company is losing money, should programmers contribute from their own pockets to keep the company afloat?

Starting your own company (not self employed contractor) gives a really good perspective on what it means to be owner and employee.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#33

Post by wffurr »

jjeaff wrote: post #28
devoply wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything good programmers are underpaid. If you are making your company a mil, you should be getting 1/2.

But what if another programmer is willing to make me a million for only 25%? That's how markets work. You get paid what what the market will bear, not what you "should" make.

It's how markets work when wealth is distributed incredibly unevenly, and a weak social safety net makes it intimidating to work for yourself instead.

In other words, markets work that way because that's how the bosses and capitalists want it to work, and have so far been successful at thwarting attempts to use the government to change things.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#34

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

sharkweek wrote: post #15

I dunno about a bubble, implying it will pop in some catastrophic way. But will market forces correct the above average salary? I think so. More young students than ever are learning to code, which is naturally going to increase the labor pool. The supply of software engineers is going to go up in the next 10-20 years (as will the demand, though! But I still think supply will outpace). This seems like it would mostly…

> More young students than ever are learning to code

More young students than ever are being taught the utmost basics. But is it true that more people than ever are pursuing it in the sense of seeking professional mastery over the craft? A proxy for this might be population-relative CS program enrollment and graduation rates. It would also be interesting to know how this is scaling compared to the overall volume of programming labor demanded, which is surely growing as well.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#35

Post by devoply »

nouveaux wrote: post #32
devoply wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything good programmers are underpaid. If you are making your company a mil, you should be getting 1/2.

I'm all for programmers getting paid more. However, by your logic, if the company is losing money, should programmers contribute from their own pockets to keep the company afloat? Starting your own company (not self employed contractor) gives a really good perspective on what it means to be owner and employee.

No they should quit and find another company.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#36

Post by est31 »

jjeaff wrote: post #28
devoply wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything good programmers are underpaid. If you are making your company a mil, you should be getting 1/2.

But what if another programmer is willing to make me a million for only 25%? That's how markets work. You get paid what what the market will bear, not what you "should" make.

Except if the other side of the market teams up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_L...

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#37

Post by Tade0 »

jdmoreira wrote: post #4

Well. I live in Sweden and I don't make anywhere close to these values. Not even remotely close. I have been programming for 12 years and I like to think I'm not half bad at it. So is peak programming just in the valley or should I be worried as well?

Poland, 7 years, less than $50k here.

If there's any bubble then I don't think it'll affect the "value proposition" that we ultimately are.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#38

Post by ttcbj »

I think there are a number of caveats to this article:

1. The amount that a company can sustainably pay you is dependent on how much value your efforts have in its industry. Software has significantly higher margins than medicine, law, or almost anything else. As long as those margins are sustained, it is possible to pay high salaries. (As buffet says: I'd rather work for a mediocre company in a great industry than a great company in a mediocre industry).

2. But companies don't want to pay high salaries, so they will look for substitutes. Substitutes could be technology (RDS instead of DBAs) or increased supply of quality programmers. So far, it seems like these big companies haven't been able to find good enough substitutes to force down wages.

3. If you are looking at FAANG salaries, you are looking at the top of the income spectrum. The top of the income spectrum for lawyers and doctors is quite high.

4. Market economies reward value (outcomes) not merit (hard work). Hard work is correlated with outcomes, but it is not always a perfect correlation. So, looking at programming and saying it is less 'hard' than law or medicine doesn't say much, the question is how much value the person can generate, and how much of it the company can capture.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#39

Post by sharkweek »

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #34
sharkweek wrote: post #15

I dunno about a bubble, implying it will pop in some catastrophic way. But will market forces correct the above average salary? I think so. More young students than ever are learning to code, which is naturally going to increase the labor pool. The supply of software engineers is going to go up in the next 10-20 years (as will the demand, though! But I still think supply will outpace). This seems like it would mostly…

> More young students than ever are learning to code More young students than ever are being taught the utmost basics. But is it true that more people than ever are pursuing it in the sense of seeking professional mastery over the craft? A proxy for this might be population-relative CS program enrollment and graduation rates. It would also be interesting to know how this is scaling compared to the overall volume of p…

Anecdotal, but the CS program overtook the business school at the University of Washington a few years back, my alma matter.

I remember when I was there, the CS classes were for NERDS and now here we are, everyone wants in.

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