Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition • Hacker News Board

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#61

Post by macintux » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 4:05 PM UTC

perfunctory wrote: post #60

I am honestly puzzled by all the comments about reduced quality of life. It sounds completely alien to me, as if I live on a different planet. I literally don't understand what you guys are talking about. The place where I live everything - shops, kid's school, entertainment and recreation - is less than 10min cycling away. Work commute is less than 1hour by train in a comfortable seat with wi-fi or a book. I do own…

Imagine your train goes away and the only way to get to work is by bus. Takes twice as long, less comfortable, and the buses are overflowing because everyone is in the same situation.

Would 4 hours of commute instead of 2 infringe upon your quality of life?

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#62

Post by rossdavidh » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 4:13 PM UTC

I believe this is just another example of a well-known rule of thumb, which is that people will adjust their commute until it's just barely tolerable. In a short term disruption like this, they probably put off any trip which can be postponed for a few weeks. I wonder whether visits to downtown locations like museums are down, for example.

In longer term situations, people move where they live, or change jobs, until their commute is just barely tolerable. Moving away from the core gets you more space for the same money, working near the core often is required to get your best salary, so the compromise results in a perpetual state of annoyance-but-not-catastrophe.

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#63

Post by maxsilver » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 5:14 PM UTC

jnellis wrote: post #8

Seattle is a bad example because it's always had peak congestion since 1978. It's just been bumping along for forty years at peak congestion.

Yeah, a more accurate description would be "Seattle won't notice the freeway destruction, because they've been living in constant Carmaggedon for the past 20+ years anyway"

Seattle folks are so anti-infrastructure, the commutes people have to endure there insane. Especially given how short a distance they cover.

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#64

Post by maxsilver » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 5:21 PM UTC

perfunctory wrote: post #60

I am honestly puzzled by all the comments about reduced quality of life. It sounds completely alien to me, as if I live on a different planet. I literally don't understand what you guys are talking about. The place where I live everything - shops, kid's school, entertainment and recreation - is less than 10min cycling away. Work commute is less than 1hour by train in a comfortable seat with wi-fi or a book. I do own…

Most people are nowhere near as fortunate as you are, to have all of that. That might be why the complaints sound so "alien".

Even if I somehow perfectly engineered my life, so that my shops and housing and employment and recreation were all right nearby each other -- there would be no way to do the same for my spouse or child or the rest of my family. And that also assumes I never ever change jobs even once (which in this economy, is effectively like taking a 10% yearly paycut).

This is why cities depend on reliable public transportation infrastructure (including freeways). It's a critical component of quality of life, as well as a requirement to make financial ends meet.

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#65

Post by ken » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 6:14 PM UTC

so33 wrote: post #41

City Observatory is a publication that lobbies for urbanism. So you have to take that into context when considering their argument. Their argument is not that removing roads doesn't reduce quality of life – their argument is that cities _adapt_ and that tearing away infrastructure for cars in favor of housing and "human-scale" neighborhoods won't necessarily result in doom and gloom. Of course removing a highway will…

This is basically the Invisible Hand, and I don't see it. Seattle (at least anywhere within 30 minutes of downtown) is being taken over by tech workers making huge salaries. They're building condos, not stores. The stores that are being built are high-revenue specialty stores, like cannabis.

When transportation becomes impractical, it first becomes impractical from the bottom (like artists and service workers) -- the rich will always find a way, whether it's paying hundreds of dollars a month (no exaggeration) for parking, or using delivery services for every meal.

This isn't causing grocery stores to be built and public transit to be improved. It's pushing everyone making less than $100K to pack up and move 30 miles away. High-paid tech workers often get subsidized transit, but most other jobs do not.

Seattle is turning into Manhattan, only without any of the services (everything shuts down at night!) that allow Manhattan to work. Even apart from the temporary 99 closure, this is not sustainable.

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#66

Post by tomcam » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 6:17 PM UTC

haberman wrote: post #47

tomcam wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought you were being obtuse when you used the phrase "a couple of weeks" but you read the article correctly: > In a few weeks, much of this capacity will be replaced by a new 3 billion dollar highway tunnel under downtown Seattle It's worded wrong. That tunnel won't be functional for years.

What do you mean? The tunnel opens next month: https://www.wsdot.wa.gov/tolling/sr-99-tunnel-tolling

What I mean is... I’m an idiot and need more sleep. Thanks for the correction.

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#67

Post by ken » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 6:27 PM UTC

perfunctory wrote: post #60

I am honestly puzzled by all the comments about reduced quality of life. It sounds completely alien to me, as if I live on a different planet. I literally don't understand what you guys are talking about. The place where I live everything - shops, kid's school, entertainment and recreation - is less than 10min cycling away. Work commute is less than 1hour by train in a comfortable seat with wi-fi or a book. I do own…

Easy: just imagine your life without a train. Replace it with "standing-room only bus (no wifi), and 2 transfers each way". Or "stuck in traffic". Still seem great?

Rail is expanding in Seattle but it's slow going. West Seattle is planned for 2030, and Ballard for 2035. You don't build a rail system overnight, especially when you've got hills and oceans and lakes and existing development to contend with.

We're the fastest growing large city in America -- population is up 20% this decade. (500K to 600K took 50 years. 600K to 700K took only 7.) That's a lot of extra bodies to transport. Any city would struggle a bit with that.

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#68

Post by guitarbill » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 7:00 PM UTC

ken wrote: post #67

perfunctory wrote: post #60

I am honestly puzzled by all the comments about reduced quality of life. It sounds completely alien to me, as if I live on a different planet. I literally don't understand what you guys are talking about. The place where I live everything - shops, kid's school, entertainment and recreation - is less than 10min cycling away. Work commute is less than 1hour by train in a comfortable seat with wi-fi or a book. I do own…

Easy: just imagine your life without a train. Replace it with "standing-room only bus (no wifi), and 2 transfers each way". Or "stuck in traffic". Still seem great? Rail is expanding in Seattle but it's slow going. West Seattle is planned for 2030, and Ballard for 2035. You don't build a rail system overnight, especially when you've got hills and oceans and lakes and existing development to contend with. We're the fa…

It doesn't help that public transport is okay by American standards, i.e. appalling. And that because of congestion, walking and cycling are so dangerous. Police have even stopped ticketing people blocking crossings because it happens too frequently (which is the wrong thing to do). Which means the alternatives are even less appealing, which means more people drive, etc.

Of course, nothing will change as the rich people still want to drive, no matter how much they pretend to support public/alternative transport in a bid to look progressive.

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#69

Post by nanis » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 10:00 PM UTC

thomasz wrote: post #56

nanis wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the context of schools, literally everybody benefits from population wide literacy and education. Education is more of a private good than you seem to realize. It is definitely excludable and in traditional settings it is quickly becomes rival past small groups of similarly motivated people. Self learning is not rival, i.e. my learning of something does not prevent you from being able to learn it, but then that…

In a society where most of the people are barely able to read, an advanced degree isn't worth that much compared to a highly industrialized society.

Why are most people barely able to read in such a society? Do you think if there is net return to being literate, people would not be able to learn without government?

Re: Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition

#70

Post by electric_muse » Sat, Jan 19, 2019, 11:14 PM UTC

throwawaysea wrote: post #17

This article provides weak arguments and no data to back up its claims. The reason "total gridlock" hasn't happened is as simple as the city, businesses, and individuals enacting different timings/routes/operations to avoid issues. Both people and businesses are taking on those pains with the knowledge that these inconveniences are temporary, and that they can return to their normal way of life in a few weeks. Just t…

This article is a cousin to the other HN favorite, that building roads just creates more demand (which is suggested to make building roads seem futile). Both seem to miss the point that personal vehicular travel maximizes many individuals’ utility functions. It requires less time waiting for public options, it’s point-to-point, and generally more comfortable and private. Why is it assumed that less personal vehicle travel is objectively superior?