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A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

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Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#151

Post by sorenjan »

lazypenguin wrote: post #127
setgree wrote: post #123

In 2012, I traveled for about 6 weeks in China. I saw a lot of large cities -- not the megalopolises of Beijing and Shanghai but Guangzhou, Xi'an, Kunming -- with unreal amounts of what looked like high-end real estate going up. if you moved to the countryside, things got a lot poorer, so there was a pretty clear disconnect. But the weirder thing was endlessly empty malls. For whatever reason, high-end luxury malls h…

I found a similar reality in other developing countries. 1 hour outside of Dubai you can find giant luxury apartment blocks & chalet communities with 50% occupancy of basically only foreigners. A nearby deserted mall that is stock full of the top brands of everything and anything at top-dollar (literally) but just outside the "locals" live in abject poverty and work in the 50C sun. I have also seen in it Uzbekistan w…

If you haven't already seen it, take a look at this video [0] showing a line of tank trucks filled with sewage, because Dubai built a lot more skyscrapers than their sewage system could handle.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1Hv8IHA3ig

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#152

Post by foldr »

frostburg wrote: post #149
foldr wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So they all moved to the middle east This is an interesting historical claim. Which intellectuals are you thinking of that moved from Europe to the Middle East in the early Medieval period?

It's more accurate (somewhat) to say that a lot of intellectual activity moved. The issue is historiographically complex but the traditional view of early medieval Europe not doing a lot to advance human knowledge except in some specific (and not very abstract) fields is mostly true.

Yeah, but it's not really accurate to say that intellectual activity moved because the Church was systematically harassing philosophers.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#153

Post by st1ck »

foldr wrote: post #139
est31 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, probably the biggest advantage that our societies have to the rich elite of repressive countries is the justice and governance system. The problem with being rich in one of those oppresive regimes is that you can get rich. But staying rich is much harder, because the moment you fall out of favor you will be disowned. This can change simply through a new clan taking over power and kicking out the old clan. In…

>So they all moved to the middle east This is an interesting historical claim. Which intellectuals are you thinking of that moved from Europe to the Middle East in the early Medieval period?

I was also curious and looked it up:

Pagan philosophy was gradually supplanted by Christianity in the later years of the Empire, culminating in the closure of the Academy of Athens by Justinian I. Many Greek-speaking philosophers moved to the east, outside the borders of the Empire. Neoplatonism and Aristotelianism gained a stronghold in Persia, where they were a heavy influence on early Islamic philosophy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legacy_of_the_Roman_Empire

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#154

Post by ido »

lazypenguin wrote: post #127
setgree wrote: post #123

In 2012, I traveled for about 6 weeks in China. I saw a lot of large cities -- not the megalopolises of Beijing and Shanghai but Guangzhou, Xi'an, Kunming -- with unreal amounts of what looked like high-end real estate going up. if you moved to the countryside, things got a lot poorer, so there was a pretty clear disconnect. But the weirder thing was endlessly empty malls. For whatever reason, high-end luxury malls h…

I found a similar reality in other developing countries. 1 hour outside of Dubai you can find giant luxury apartment blocks & chalet communities with 50% occupancy of basically only foreigners. A nearby deserted mall that is stock full of the top brands of everything and anything at top-dollar (literally) but just outside the "locals" live in abject poverty and work in the 50C sun. I have also seen in it Uzbekistan w…

    My theory is that many developing countries use 
    the wrong metric to gauge their success
More cynically these developments are probably a conduit for a lot of money getting into the pockets of corrupted public officials.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#155

Post by hopler »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #143
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Houses are seen as speculative investments for the vast majority of US home owners also.

Not really in the same way. High property taxes mean you usually can’t sit on a property and wait to flip it, it has to be put to productive use because deprecation (through taxes) happens right away. No one can really afford to buy an apartment building, decide that renting the units isn’t worth it and just sit on the empty unrenovated apartments until buyers come along. In China, you can buy property and just sit o…

US property tax of 1% or rarely 2% is not much of.a speed bump when you are chasing 10+% gains.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#156

Post by st1ck »

st1ck wrote: post #153
foldr wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So they all moved to the middle east This is an interesting historical claim. Which intellectuals are you thinking of that moved from Europe to the Middle East in the early Medieval period?

I was also curious and looked it up: Pagan philosophy was gradually supplanted by Christianity in the later years of the Empire, culminating in the closure of the Academy of Athens by Justinian I. Many Greek-speaking philosophers moved to the east, outside the borders of the Empire. Neoplatonism and Aristotelianism gained a stronghold in Persia, where they were a heavy influence on early Islamic philosophy. https://e…

And a little more:

The last Scholarch of the Neoplatonic Academy was Damascius (d. 540). According to Agathias, its remaining members looked for protection under the rule of Sassanid king Khosrau I in his capital at Ctesiphon, carrying with them precious scrolls of literature and philosophy, and to a lesser degree of science. After a peace treaty between the Persian and the Byzantine empire in 532, their personal security (an early document in the history of freedom of religion) was guaranteed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platonic_Academy#Neoplatonic_A...

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#157

Post by hopler »

ethbro wrote: post #79
sonnyblarney wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The central authorities control the central bank, the banks, and perhaps importantly: the press. And of course policy/taxation. So they can stop a lot of rampant speculation through a variety of measures, meaning hopefully, they can kill any bubble-like blowups. As you say, there's a lot of poor folks and a lot of empty homes, maybe that does mean a haircut for home owners, but it might possibly be done in a way that…

I'd say the danger for China is not being unable to handle a consumer bubble. As you've pointed out, they have a lot of tools. It's their not recognizing they're creating a government supply bubble. The real weakness of demand economies historically hasn't been their difficulty producing basic things (that they feel are necessary), but knowing when to stop producing things. Absent free market signals, there's not a l…

You mean "command economy"?

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#158

Post by dsfyu404ed »

setgree wrote: post #134
lazypenguin wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found a similar reality in other developing countries. 1 hour outside of Dubai you can find giant luxury apartment blocks & chalet communities with 50% occupancy of basically only foreigners. A nearby deserted mall that is stock full of the top brands of everything and anything at top-dollar (literally) but just outside the "locals" live in abject poverty and work in the 50C sun. I have also seen in it Uzbekistan w…

I can't find the link right now, but I think the right idea here is that the value of infrastructure is in its use. The more that the people building stuff are insulated from the needs of users, the less you should expect it to be useful. Large corporations face exactly the same problem. And in a nutshell this is why my beloved NYC's subway is such a disaster :(

>And in a nutshell this is why my beloved NYC's subway is such a disaster :(

It's not like the people building terrible systems don't know there is a disconnect with their users. They just don't care.

I know a guy who works for a similarly corrupt and incompetent rail system. They told him not to take the train to work because if he was late "I was on your train and it got delayed" was not a valid excuse for being late. Management knows the system sucks.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#159

Post by dragonsh »

barry-cotter wrote: post #145
dragonsh wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you got your statistics most are false, half complete or misleading. Even in place like Shanghai, its been around 15 years they built Lingang City is still empty, now waiting for Tesla factory to populate, govt spend over 38 billion dollars to build it, people bought apartment blocks seating empty or acting as construction workers living quarters. Go to a mall right next to Huangpu river near Lupu…

Can you give me the address? I’ve seen plenty of new malls that are half empty but they’ve all filled up so far. In the six years I’ve lived in Shanghai the “cool” areas where foreigners live have expanded markedly. Then again I’d never even heard of the Lupu Bridge until I looked it just now. The Fabric Market is near there, unless they’re just refusing to let lie class tenants rent there any mall should be full lik…

It's not one mall but series of malls and offices between nanpu and lupu bridge near the Puxi side expo areas (mostly without much foot traffic or shops). They are there for over 8 years.

You probably can take a bicycle and ride along the Huangpu river from Nanpu bridge towards Lupu bridge. It's a beautiful bicycle path and you can see the empty malls and offices.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#160

Post by pasta »

lazypenguin wrote: post #127
setgree wrote: post #123

In 2012, I traveled for about 6 weeks in China. I saw a lot of large cities -- not the megalopolises of Beijing and Shanghai but Guangzhou, Xi'an, Kunming -- with unreal amounts of what looked like high-end real estate going up. if you moved to the countryside, things got a lot poorer, so there was a pretty clear disconnect. But the weirder thing was endlessly empty malls. For whatever reason, high-end luxury malls h…

I found a similar reality in other developing countries. 1 hour outside of Dubai you can find giant luxury apartment blocks & chalet communities with 50% occupancy of basically only foreigners. A nearby deserted mall that is stock full of the top brands of everything and anything at top-dollar (literally) but just outside the "locals" live in abject poverty and work in the 50C sun. I have also seen in it Uzbekistan w…

China is not a developing country. I don't know where you got that idea.

China is the second-largest economy.

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