131–140 of 191 posts
To put things into context. 1. These are Urban Homes. 2. There are roughly 20M people jumping to new cities and Urban areas every year. For years China has keep a roughly two years buffer zone, I think the rate of new housing is the same and rate of people going into Urban has declined, so a slight increase in terms of buffer ( closer to three years now ). 3. Most of the "Ghost Cities" do get fill up quickly, once th…
In 2012, I traveled for about 6 weeks in China. I saw a lot of large cities -- not the megalopolises of Beijing and Shanghai but Guangzhou, Xi'an, Kunming -- with unreal amounts of what looked like high-end real estate going up. if you moved to the countryside, things got a lot poorer, so there was a pretty clear disconnect. But the weirder thing was endlessly empty malls. For whatever reason, high-end luxury malls h…
I found a similar reality in other developing countries. 1 hour outside of Dubai you can find giant luxury apartment blocks & chalet communities with 50% occupancy of basically only foreigners. A nearby deserted mall that is stock full of the top brands of everything and anything at top-dollar (literally) but just outside the "locals" live in abject poverty and work in the 50C sun. I have also seen in it Uzbekistan w…
To put things into context. 1. These are Urban Homes. 2. There are roughly 20M people jumping to new cities and Urban areas every year. For years China has keep a roughly two years buffer zone, I think the rate of new housing is the same and rate of people going into Urban has declined, so a slight increase in terms of buffer ( closer to three years now ). 3. Most of the "Ghost Cities" do get fill up quickly, once th…
In 2012, I traveled for about 6 weeks in China. I saw a lot of large cities -- not the megalopolises of Beijing and Shanghai but Guangzhou, Xi'an, Kunming -- with unreal amounts of what looked like high-end real estate going up. if you moved to the countryside, things got a lot poorer, so there was a pretty clear disconnect. But the weirder thing was endlessly empty malls. For whatever reason, high-end luxury malls h…
I found a similar reality in other developing countries. 1 hour outside of Dubai you can find giant luxury apartment blocks & chalet communities with 50% occupancy of basically only foreigners. A nearby deserted mall that is stock full of the top brands of everything and anything at top-dollar (literally) but just outside the "locals" live in abject poverty and work in the 50C sun. I have also seen in it Uzbekistan w…
Large corporations face exactly the same problem.
And in a nutshell this is why my beloved NYC's subway is such a disaster :(
To put things into context. 1. These are Urban Homes. 2. There are roughly 20M people jumping to new cities and Urban areas every year. For years China has keep a roughly two years buffer zone, I think the rate of new housing is the same and rate of people going into Urban has declined, so a slight increase in terms of buffer ( closer to three years now ). 3. Most of the "Ghost Cities" do get fill up quickly, once th…
Articles about ghost cities are a fascinating read - sometimes exploring un-intuitive facts, like having 50m empty homes in China, yields a surprising discovery of the underlying systems. In this case, I think the system perfectly justifies having 50m homes empty. If you look at it another way, if San Francisco (arguably another booming localized economy) had the same initiative to build a 20% buffer for housing, it…
Not in and of itself, but if you look at historical parallels, like the development of Brasilia, the consequences were devastating: over a decade of hyperinflation and a series of failed currencies until one stuck.
It seems like China is building hundreds of Brasilias all at once.
Maybe Beijing has figured this out, and this will lift more people out of poverty than ever in history? Or maybe this isn't different and the reckoning on the back end will be unimaginable?
Never in history has local economic policy affected so many, and it happens to be in a setting where you aren't really allowed to debate economic or government policies.
Maybe it will all work out but it's a scary ride.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
there are no such thing as houses in urban china. these homes are apartments you basically get on a 40 year lease. when the lease is up the govt pays you to move out. also, when you buy an apartment in china, it's not finished. there's no flooring, paint, appliances, etc. the price of a finished one is the same or less as an unfinished since the new owner will usually redo the interior. so a lot of these new apartmen…
several corrections, apartments are typically leased for 70 years, 40 is for commercial property which are sometimes inhabitable. some apartments are finished, these days it’s more likely you’ll find a fully finished apartment, ready for move in, but they do have the unfinished apartments, but it’s too much trouble and trending down lately. you’re right about the investment aspect, i believe in early i used to rent a…
Hahaha, things are even more crazier in Shenzhen. You can rent a 1.5 million buck apparent for $500
To put things into context. 1. These are Urban Homes. 2. There are roughly 20M people jumping to new cities and Urban areas every year. For years China has keep a roughly two years buffer zone, I think the rate of new housing is the same and rate of people going into Urban has declined, so a slight increase in terms of buffer ( closer to three years now ). 3. Most of the "Ghost Cities" do get fill up quickly, once th…
I don't know where you got your statistics most are false, half complete or misleading. Even in place like Shanghai, its been around 15 years they built Lingang City is still empty, now waiting for Tesla factory to populate, govt spend over 38 billion dollars to build it, people bought apartment blocks seating empty or acting as construction workers living quarters. Go to a mall right next to Huangpu river near Lupu…
Official Stats? ( But as you know Official Stats could be wrong too ) I never said the City they built out NOW have to be filled within 2 years. There are some that strategically don't work and are left there like ruins. Some are waiting for their turns, some may never come. And they will likely knock those down and rebuilt again. And when it comes to urbanisation, why would anyone wants to pull people from rural into First Class City like Shanghai? There are lots of places in Midland and Western ( The so called Great Western China Development )
In 2012, I traveled for about 6 weeks in China. I saw a lot of large cities -- not the megalopolises of Beijing and Shanghai but Guangzhou, Xi'an, Kunming -- with unreal amounts of what looked like high-end real estate going up. if you moved to the countryside, things got a lot poorer, so there was a pretty clear disconnect. But the weirder thing was endlessly empty malls. For whatever reason, high-end luxury malls h…
It really doesn't. That is until you visit there again in 3 - 5 years times. Everything is different. You start getting lots more people and spending money. Ok it is not like everyone becomes wealthy overnight. But from Zero to having a few people actually buying, shopping and eating in these malls is quite an achievement. And they move from bottom class Third Tier cities into upper class Third Tier etc...
I have seen it, it is a little hard to comprehend. I still don't know how everything was possible.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I found a similar reality in other developing countries. 1 hour outside of Dubai you can find giant luxury apartment blocks & chalet communities with 50% occupancy of basically only foreigners. A nearby deserted mall that is stock full of the top brands of everything and anything at top-dollar (literally) but just outside the "locals" live in abject poverty and work in the 50C sun. I have also seen in it Uzbekistan w…
Indeed, probably the biggest advantage that our societies have to the rich elite of repressive countries is the justice and governance system. The problem with being rich in one of those oppresive regimes is that you can get rich. But staying rich is much harder, because the moment you fall out of favor you will be disowned. This can change simply through a new clan taking over power and kicking out the old clan. In…
This is an interesting historical claim. Which intellectuals are you thinking of that moved from Europe to the Middle East in the early Medieval period?