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Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

nytimes.com

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Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#601

Post by makomk »

mikekchar wrote: post #543
philwelch wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. The UK already picked and chose the parts of EU membership they wanted. They opted out of the Euro, they opted out of Schengen, they opted out of the Charter of Fundamental Rights--all of this, and more,…

To be fair, they didn't really opt out of the Euro. It is completely unfeasible at the time. Originally they were going to go with the Euro and to start the transition they linked the pound to the deutsche mark. However, the German economy was crushing the British economy and this pushed interest rates in the UK to over 10% (Fun fact: I was getting 12% interest in my savings account in the UK). Mortgage rates were ab…

Part of the reason the Eurozone's in the mess it is right now is that, for the most part, the EU didn't let the fact that the Euro was completely infeasible for particular countries get in the way of converting them over to it anyway. The UK wasn't the only country with similar problems, but others like Italy didn't opt out and are in a fine state now as a result. In that sense the British opt-out worked well for us.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#602

Post by tomp »

xoa wrote: post #201

The New York Times also had an article yesterday [1] looking at some of the regular pro-Brexit people who just plain do not believe any warnings about no-deal. One quote though really jumped out at me since it was related to one of the earliest projects I ever did, working on a small bit of the Y2K problem, and I think it really serves as an example of a fundamental difficulty when dealing with public facing threats:…

The more proximal cause of "not believing warnings about no-deal" is that there were very similar warnings for the Brexit vote itself, and approximately none of them came true.

Personally, I just can't see any big issues. Obviously UK's not going to ban the workers it needs or the imports it needs. Obviously other countries will still want to sell to a rich country like the UK. Sure, there might be a year or two of worse economic prospects as businesses and laws adjust, but really it's the long-term prospects that matter; and maybe it's better that UK unshackles itself to the EU which doesn't seem capable of thinking long-term and solving it's most pressing problems (democracy deficit, current account imbalances, immigration)...

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#603

Post by chasing »

chasing wrote: post #51

"The people have voted to shoot themselves in the foot. Parliament rejects proposal to shoot themselves in the right foot, but proposal to shoot themselves in the left foot also seems destined for failure."

"If Parliament is unable to decide which foot should be shot, then the default option of shooting themselves in the head will be enacted."

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#604

Post by meepmorp »

accnumnplus1 wrote: post #592
rtkwe wrote: post #270

The issue with the referendum since the beginning was leave was such a nebulous cloud for the entire range of Brexit from barely-there-Brexit to Britian-stands-alone(-get-those-people-out)-Brexit while remain had a very definite meaning. Because of that everyone could pour all their displeasure at anything wrong into leave and think the deal would take care of it. That's why I'm always annoyed at the 'another referen…

How is "leave the EU" nebulous? There's nothing nebulous about it. The only thing that's nebulous, as Juncker said, is Theresa May with her faux-brexit deal.

It’s nebulous because “leave the EU,” means everything from remaining in the SM and CU, to having no formal relationship with the EU, and a number of positions in between.

People voted for the leave option without well defined idea of what that choice entailed. Remain, by contrast, was basically about keeping things as-is.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#605

Post by Iv »

yholio wrote: post #41

The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on. It was a lie, you cannot force the EU to accept an unfavorable trade deal. If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. Somebody needs to own up to that lie and accept that a "no deal" outcome, wh…

That's because brexiter politicians are not looking for a good outcome. They are looking for power. Brexit is a good vehicle for that: make a brand of being a "Brexiter" and sell it as an utopia. Demand it be delivered then point politicians' incompetence when they fail despite trying. Then use your reputation as a "serious" brexiter to gain power and show them "how it is done".

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#606

Post by joshuahughes »

Udik wrote: post #263
RafiqM wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is preventing the referendum from being declared stupid and that the UK gov't is not going to do it Essentially, they want to honor the will of the people. The will of the people, by democratic vote, was to leave the EU. With that in mind, they have no options that are in any way good: 1) Push ahead and exit with no-deal (economically disastrous) 2) Push ahead and exit with the proposed deal (economically bad…

It shouldn't be so hard to argue that steps of this magnitude should not be taken based on a single poll won with a 2% margin (which means that if only 1/100 of the voters had changed sides the result would have been opposite). It might take a bit of courage to declare it but it's a travesty that politicians are so afraid of their electorate as not daring to utter such an obvious truth.

'Leave' actually received 1,269,501 more votes than 'Remain', which is quite a huge number out of a UK population of about 66m. Pretty sure that means FOUR out of every hundred votes would've needed to swap sides to just get us to a 50/50 split. That's really not the close contest it's made out to be.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#607

Post by sonnyblarney »

yholio wrote: post #169
mrec wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they are trying to camouflage that reality with a bad deal They're not, May is, and May is not a Brexiter. The Brexiters generally are pushing to leave on WTO terms, not so much as a preferred end state but in recognition of the fact that only a genuine commitment to doing so has any chance of convincing the EU to agree to sensible terms such as Canada+. If the EU can keep the UK under its thumb forever then of cou…

There is no Canada+ on the table and there never was, it's just "Canada" without the "+": a set of trade liberalization measures that cover some physical goods and very few services. It's a bad match for Britain's needs: http://www.policyreview.co.uk/eu-uk-canada/ It's hard to understand why Germany or France, who stand to gain from excluding the powerful UK service sector from the EU financial markets, would think t…

The gains that Germany and France will make in EU oriented financials services will pale in comparison to the loss of a major trading partner.

Remember that the EU is becoming less and less important over time as a financial services market, even the UK's financial services sector has become less dependant on it over time.

The juicier fruit is in the rest of the world.

There's quite a lot of real trade between the EU-UK and that will hurt.

The EU obviously stands to benefit from a pretty strong deal with it's closest 'non EU' partner.

The reason we don't see it playing out so obviously I believe boils down to the other geopolitical factors at play - obviously there's a lot at play.

In other words, if the UK were just now approaching the EU for some kind of participation, without the baggage of the current 'leave' environment, I think we'd see a Canada++ type deal develop.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#608

Post by RugnirViking »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #583
PaulRobinson wrote: post #142

Here's what happens next: - A motion of no confidence has been tabled and will be debated and voted on tomorrow - If the motion carries (i.e. the Government loses): 1. Theresa May must resign as Prime Minister 2. There can be a 14 day window in which a new government is formed, which must be approved by a motion of confidence. This is likely to be waived 3. There will be a general election. Theresa May will remain le…

> This will either result in a Remain vote and possibly a civil war (no, seriously) The UK doesn't have enough guns to have a proper civil war. (It's amazing how far one has to reach for good news in this situation!)

Plenty of good news! SNP voted together with hard brexiteer tories! Britain mostly united on a decision! Sure, it's doesn't lead to a clear next step, but that's perhaps what's most exciting - most remainers voted against the deal because this is the best chance we have for this whole farce to not happen!

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#609

Post by r00fus »

PaulRobinson wrote: post #323
avar wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no winning here, and there is no situation in which we get to revoke Article 50 and the UK remains in the EU and all is well. The ECJ has said that the UK can just revoke article 50 and stay in the EU[1]. I understand how this might be political suicide for some in the UK, but there is the option of takesies backsies (although that would happen to e.g. the EMA is unclear). So one option is to hold another…

The ECJ is so hated by Leavers that taking their advice could see Parliament being burned to the ground. It being legally possible is not the same as it being even remotely possible at this stage. What needs to happen is the Leavers need to realise that No Deal isn't acceptable (they don't), and that more time is needed for a better deal or that it gets democratic backing. Unfortunately, Parliament has already kind o…

Are there as many leavers now that it's know how messed up the hard exit would be?

What's the polling like?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#610

Post by Kudos »

pron wrote: post #591
yholio wrote: post #41

The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on. It was a lie, you cannot force the EU to accept an unfavorable trade deal. If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. Somebody needs to own up to that lie and accept that a "no deal" outcome, wh…

> a "no deal" outcome, which is clearly bad, is still the best thing brexiters can actually deliver I don't see the logic here. The deal (let's call it D), is clearly worse than staying in the EU (let's call that option E). From that relation D < E it does not follow that no-deal (N) is better than a deal, i.e. D < N. It may well be that N < D < E. So I don't see how no-deal is the "best the brexiteers can delliver."

They said "can actually deliver", not "could technically possibly deliver".
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