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Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

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51–60 of 84 posts

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#51
post #3

If this quote is from September 1969... The movie 2001 was released in late spring 1968. In it the astronauts are using a color tablet computer laying on a table, no thicker than a modern iPad, to watch video. https://www.bfi.org.uk/news-opinion/news-bfi/features/did-st...

And also after the Mother of All Demos in December 1968.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mother_of_All_Demos

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#52
post #29
post #23

It is fascinating what people did predict and what they didn't predict. Smartphones, smartwatches, e-books, face-time calls was all predicted. What people didn't predict: Clickbait, e-mail phishing, viral fake news and people preferring SMS to a voice or facetime call.

> What people didn't predict: Clickbait, e-mail phishing, viral fake news Didn't need to predict those. Analog equivalents always existed. > and people preferring SMS to a voice or facetime call. Who wouldn't ;-) Thanks to the transition to asynchronous message based communication I can have more and more meaningful communication with a larger part of my family than I would if I had to FaceTime or call them. In busin…

Analog equivalents existed, but did anyone care to extrapolate from the analog to the digital?

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#53
post #7

At my university there are several ironic and funny posters with quotes about mispredictions on display at the walls of the big lecture hall of the mechanical engineering building. My favorite one is from Gottlieb Daimler 1901: "The global demand for automobiles will not exceed one million - at least because of a lack of available chauffeurs." [1] He is the founder of the predecessor of todays Daimler AG, which owns…

> "The global demand for automobiles will not exceed one million - at least because of a lack of available chauffeurs."

Such quotes are helpful to ask what are possibilities if we subvert the imposed limitation. E.g. I got a thought what if we switch the subject to some other invention e.g. a medical equipment:

The global demand for gamma knifes will not exceed one million - at least because of a lack of available surgeons.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#54
post #53
post #7

At my university there are several ironic and funny posters with quotes about mispredictions on display at the walls of the big lecture hall of the mechanical engineering building. My favorite one is from Gottlieb Daimler 1901: "The global demand for automobiles will not exceed one million - at least because of a lack of available chauffeurs." [1] He is the founder of the predecessor of todays Daimler AG, which owns…

> "The global demand for automobiles will not exceed one million - at least because of a lack of available chauffeurs." Such quotes are helpful to ask what are possibilities if we subvert the imposed limitation. E.g. I got a thought what if we switch the subject to some other invention e.g. a medical equipment: The global demand for gamma knifes will not exceed one million - at least because of a lack of available su…

There is no evidence that Bill Gates said "640K ought to be enough for anyone."

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/09/08/640k-enough/

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have always thought science is inspired by fiction. Cellphones are nothing less than a better communicator, Bluetooth badges are even available on thinkgeek!

Inspired by or surfing similar waves of thought. Science fiction can just go further ahead, not bounded by the realities of science and production limitations.

[deleted]

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s incredible.

I have always thought science is inspired by fiction. Cellphones are nothing less than a better communicator, Bluetooth badges are even available on thinkgeek!

Almost all things need to be conceived by a person before they are created. Its much easier to conceive something than build it. Thus most objects will be written about before they exist. More emergent properties are less likely to have been predicted by fiction authors. Say the decline of good news sources due to the capture of most classified revenue by Craigslist and all the knock-on effects of that.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s incredible.

I have always thought science is inspired by fiction. Cellphones are nothing less than a better communicator, Bluetooth badges are even available on thinkgeek!

But a communicator is primarily a voice communication device. If I were to say a cellphone is like a star trek device, I'd say it's more like an undersized PADD

(and yeah, I maybe agree that the Apple engineers may have a lot of TNG. The 'too lazy to make actual buttons' set designers, I think, actually inspired apple; it really is a lot easier to design a muti-use interface if the "buttons" are all behind a glass touchscreen.)

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#58
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

Think of data centers as huge mainframes and we will soon come close.

> Think of data centers as huge mainframes and we will soon come close.

I... kinda doubt it. All of the really big players have access to markets that are willing to pay huge margins.

there are a lot of smaller players that would be happy to sell you compute at 75% the price of amazon, and bandwidth at 1/10th the price of amazon. Yeah, the big customers are happy paying the premium, but there are plenty of small customers that will buy service from a smaller player if it means a big discount.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s incredible.

I have always thought science is inspired by fiction. Cellphones are nothing less than a better communicator, Bluetooth badges are even available on thinkgeek!

Sci-fi (and all fiction) are really just the author talking about the present. As such, all the sci-fi tech is just a neat description of an existing problem. Inevitably engineers will strive to solve those problems.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#60
post #29
post #23

It is fascinating what people did predict and what they didn't predict. Smartphones, smartwatches, e-books, face-time calls was all predicted. What people didn't predict: Clickbait, e-mail phishing, viral fake news and people preferring SMS to a voice or facetime call.

> What people didn't predict: Clickbait, e-mail phishing, viral fake news Didn't need to predict those. Analog equivalents always existed. > and people preferring SMS to a voice or facetime call. Who wouldn't ;-) Thanks to the transition to asynchronous message based communication I can have more and more meaningful communication with a larger part of my family than I would if I had to FaceTime or call them. In busin…

Here’s something else that they didn’t predict: that sales of books printed on paper are at their all-time highest now.
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