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Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

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Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#21
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2019: I have a 100% DC powered datacenter, but the power certainly gets to its location via AC.

Transmission could be done via DC too, and there are quite a few benefits to it. The only field left to conquer is generation of electricity, looks like that's going to be in AC.

What benefits? The downsides are massive resistive losses.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#22
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transmission could be done via DC too, and there are quite a few benefits to it. The only field left to conquer is generation of electricity, looks like that's going to be in AC.

What benefits? The downsides are massive resistive losses.

That depends entirely on the voltage.

AC won because transformers are relatively simple and can change AC voltage, but we can now build stuff to change AC voltage too.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#23
It is fascinating what people did predict and what they didn't predict. Smartphones, smartwatches, e-books, face-time calls was all predicted. What people didn't predict: Clickbait, e-mail phishing, viral fake news and people preferring SMS to a voice or facetime call.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#24
post #7

At my university there are several ironic and funny posters with quotes about mispredictions on display at the walls of the big lecture hall of the mechanical engineering building. My favorite one is from Gottlieb Daimler 1901: "The global demand for automobiles will not exceed one million - at least because of a lack of available chauffeurs." [1] He is the founder of the predecessor of todays Daimler AG, which owns…

"I believe in the horse. The automobile is a passing phenomenon." – Kaiser Wilhelm II.

"It would appear that we have reached the limits of what it is possible to achieve with computer technology, although one should be careful with such statements, as they tend to sound pretty silly in 5 years." – John Von Neumann, circa 1949

(as a genius, he realized that how things appear is not necessarily how they are)

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#25
And here's Isaac Asimov predicting a few things about the (best part of the) Internet of today in years when most people in the world had not even heard of it yet.

https://www.wimp.com/isaac-asimov-predicted-the-internet-of-...

(the interview is from 1988, so it's now dated over 30 years)

I believe there are much older references to a worldwide library accessible by anyone from home in his writings, but I can't recall where. I admit having been a huge fan of his teaching about science (I was reading a book by him when the muted TV showed the news about his death) and I also loved his short stories, even those not related to scientific information or science fiction, but never liked his bigger novels, the Foundation that I quit after not even finishing one book etc. so my knowledge is very limited in that context.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#26
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What benefits? The downsides are massive resistive losses.

That depends entirely on the voltage. AC won because transformers are relatively simple and can change AC voltage, but we can now build stuff to change AC voltage too.

Don't forget that three phase allows for three conductors to carry the power of three pairs of single phase conductors.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#27
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transmission could be done via DC too, and there are quite a few benefits to it. The only field left to conquer is generation of electricity, looks like that's going to be in AC.

It is, but rather difficult and expensive for short to medium distances. Submarine power cables are often HVDC. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie

Great article. The thing's grounding system is lustworthy:

The Sylmar grounding system is a line of 24 silicon-iron alloy electrodes submerged in the Pacific Ocean at Will Rogers State Beach[4] suspended in concrete enclosures about one meter above the ocean floor.

The grounding system at Celilo consists of 1,067 cast iron anodes buried in a two-foot trench of petroleum coke, which behaves as an electrode, arranged in a ring of 2.02 mi (3,250.87 m) circumference at Rice Flats (near Rice, Oregon), which is 6.6 mi (10.6 km) SSE of Celilo.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#28
post #10
post #7

At my university there are several ironic and funny posters with quotes about mispredictions on display at the walls of the big lecture hall of the mechanical engineering building. My favorite one is from Gottlieb Daimler 1901: "The global demand for automobiles will not exceed one million - at least because of a lack of available chauffeurs." [1] He is the founder of the predecessor of todays Daimler AG, which owns…

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

"Brilliant" man, 1937 recipient of der Fuhrer's "The Merit Cross of the German Eagle with Star", granted to 'honor foreign nationals who made themselves deserving of the German Reich.' for selling IBM tabulation machines, technology which enabled genocide.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#29
post #23

It is fascinating what people did predict and what they didn't predict. Smartphones, smartwatches, e-books, face-time calls was all predicted. What people didn't predict: Clickbait, e-mail phishing, viral fake news and people preferring SMS to a voice or facetime call.

> What people didn't predict: Clickbait, e-mail phishing, viral fake news

Didn't need to predict those. Analog equivalents always existed.

> and people preferring SMS to a voice or facetime call.

Who wouldn't ;-) Thanks to the transition to asynchronous message based communication I can have more and more meaningful communication with a larger part of my family than I would if I had to FaceTime or call them.

In business it is even more useful as it provides a trail of who did what in addition to the other advantages.

Re: Some Day, You’ll Have a Telephone with a Screen and Be Able To Dial a Book

#30
post #3

If this quote is from September 1969... The movie 2001 was released in late spring 1968. In it the astronauts are using a color tablet computer laying on a table, no thicker than a modern iPad, to watch video. https://www.bfi.org.uk/news-opinion/news-bfi/features/did-st...

That movie is very special. A lot of it’s predictions like flat LCD screens, personal IFE on airplanes, iPads, and kids messing around on FaceTime are so mundane now it’s easy to overlook them when watching the film with a 21st century set of eyes
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