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Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

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Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#411

Once, I believe it was in the late 90's, my wife showed me the cover of a business mag. It showed the CEO of Sears, and also a young guy with a messenger bag and a Misfits pin. "Sears", with an arrow pointing to the CEO. "Sears.com" with an arrow pointing to the youngster. The thing is, she knew that youngster, and he really did work at Sears, for their webstore. He wasn't the only guy, but it was apparently pretty c…

To be fair, in '98 there weren't many people with big corporate web store experience who were also experienced enough in retail to trust with a big corporate retail operation.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#413
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post #35

My first online shopping experience was with Sears over Prodigy in 1991. You could browse online, or order from the paper catalog (which is more likely what you'd do because NAPLPS graphics didn't lend themselves well, or at all, to product depictions). Then they'd ship to you, or you could go to the order pickup area at your local Sears store. They had a touchscreen kiosk there where you'd punch in your order number…

My local grocery store had a drive-thru pickup back in the 90s. The strange part was you still had to pick your own items and check out conventionally. Then walk to your car and drive through the pickup area. They converted it to a cart return around the turn of the century. If they simply had a way to order ahead they would have been two decades ahead of the current industry.

Growing up, my local grocery store had a similar service. A friendly clerk helped my mom load up the car!

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#414
My two cents...

As I like to group things in threes, my explanation for Amazon's success is that they had better leadership principles, better execution ability, and a better theory about the future (all business strategies make an implicit or explicit claim about what the future will look like) than any direct or indirect competitor. Could at least some competitor have been better than them at one of those? Perhaps. I don't think any competitor matched them along all three of those dimensions.

Amazon's '97 letter to shareholders gives you a taste as to their theory of the future. Everyone already knows about their ability to execute. Most already know their leadership principles. From an anthropological perspective, I find it relatively insightful to revist them from time to time. Here they are:

(1) Customer obsession. (2) Ownership. (3) Invent and simplify. (4) Leaders are right, a lot. (5) Learn and be curious. (6) Hire and develop the best. (7) Insist on the highest standards. (8) Think big. (9) Bias for action. (10) Frugality. (11) Earn trust. (12) Dive deep. (13) Have backbone; disagree and commit. (14) Deliver results.

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To speculate even further... suppose someone were to ask me, "Distill the insights Bezos & Co. made into a single element so that I can understand what Amazon is. What is that one thing or what is Amazon really all about?" What would I say?

Benedict Evans would talk about a machine that makes more of itself.

Scott Galloway would talk about storytelling and its relation to cheap capital.

Ben Thompson would talk about an entity with multiple moats that takes a cut of all economic activity (or maybe just describe some version of an aggregator).

Many others would talk about the virtuous cycle of lower prices --> more customers --> etc.

I would say:

"Warren Buffet had a breakthrough insight - the competitive moat - in the 60's that ended up dominating business thinking up to the present (and will continue to be important/fundamental into the future). Bezos & Co. made an insight of similar importance. Namely, the actual value of an asset truly does outstrip your present understanding of its value, and outstrips your present understanding in a very significant way.

No breakthrough insight is sui generis, as it is constructed using already existing conceptual elements. Buffet's moat was there in the financial statements, and already intuited in a vague way by successful investors and managers before the 60's. The same can be said about Bezos & Co. It's a truism of managerial economics that the point of business is to move under-valued assets into higher-valued uses. Amazon both took this to heart (they internalized it) and they recognized that the true extent to which an assets value outstrips your present perception of said assets value, was an order of magnitude greater than anyone thought before."

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#415
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post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TBH, I think there's a much better case to be made for Sears doubling down on some of its core assets and creating Home Depot before Home Depot did. Its store footprints weren't right, which is no small thing. But they were already a significant home improvement and major appliance store. They probably had a window when it was clear that discount retailers (and some high-end stores) were the future of "department sto…

They literally had the best tools in the world - my dad swore by Craftsman, told me never to bother buying any other brand. Then they threw it away on a demonstration of Randian philosophy.

This happens so often, I would not be surprised if it was a widely accepted business process. The MBA's come in and run a good brand into the ground. It happened a lot with bike brands.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#416
post #227
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought this as well until I heard a counter-point [0] which was very convincing. The reason Amazon is successful is not because you can shop online (from a catalog) and receive items in the mail. The reason Amazon is successful is because you can do those things and receive your items within two days. Before Prime existed, Amazon had very quick fulfillment, and after Prime two-day it became even better. The Sears…

There was a significant gap between Amazon launch and having two-day shipping — it took years of behind the scenes development before orders started arriving notably faster than other retails. Sears' numbers include regular postal delivery in both directions so switching to online ordering would have cut them in half with no other changes (and don't forget the efficiency wins from orders arriving as validated electro…

In hindsight, Bezos was playing chess while the retailers were playing Uno. I'm generally suspicious of a CEO making that much of a difference, but in this case, clearly, his vision was worth billions in business advantage.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#417
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Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a way, I miss the serendipity of browsing bookstores. There was a time when it was a circa monthly ritual to go into Harvard Square on a weekend (I think stores were mostly open on Sunday by then) and make my way through all the new and used bookstores as well as run other errands. But, really, although I still like going into a good bookstore now and then, having this vast collection of (however imperfectly) revi…

I do wonder how typical your experience is, though. I personally never found much by doing that (partly I was paralyzed by choice without a good algorithm for narrowing things down), and consequently stopped the random browsing in bookstores long before the bookstores themselves mostly disappeared. When I was much younger (pre-teens and teens), I was a voracious reader and would spend a lot of time at the library. Bu…

For me, it depends on the store.

Some places feel "well-curated": they may not have a ton of books, but it seems like the books they do have were carefully chosen. Maybe there are "theme" collections (local authors, ghost stories for grownups, Russian authors", etc) or well-read staff members making recommendations. I love browsing these places.

Other places seem to go with the "pile of books" approach. There's a lot of them, roughly organised ('fiction') and many of them are obvious tat ('Lose Weight the Dr. Oz Way' or something. I find it easy to leave these places without buying anything.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#418
post #411

Once, I believe it was in the late 90's, my wife showed me the cover of a business mag. It showed the CEO of Sears, and also a young guy with a messenger bag and a Misfits pin. "Sears", with an arrow pointing to the CEO. "Sears.com" with an arrow pointing to the youngster. The thing is, she knew that youngster, and he really did work at Sears, for their webstore. He wasn't the only guy, but it was apparently pretty c…

To be fair, in '98 there weren't many people with big corporate web store experience who were also experienced enough in retail to trust with a big corporate retail operation.

Truth. I think that might be a reason why none of the retail incumbents, not even the ones with a by-mail background, did well. If you were an upstart, by-mail-only internet company, you didn't need to know how to run a bricks-and-mortar retail chain (of large size).

It is probably relevant to consider Amazon's (limited) forays into bricks-and-mortar establishments. They have had about as much impact as the online versions of the legacy retailers.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Walmart is following this exact strategy right now. How are they doing?

After years of getting many if not most things from Amazon, my last several big ticket tech items were bought from Walmart online. The prices on identical items were better at Walmart. Other things I've stopped buying from Amazon are the frequently-counterfeited categories of items (USB chargers, etc etc). I'll just go to Microcenter or Walmart or wherever local whose supply chain I have more faith in.

Also you can do pickup at Walmart on a ton of items and have it in an hour or less—and usually at the same price or lower, now that Amazon charges sales tax; very few places have prime instant or whatever the same-day service is for Prime.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#420
post #5

Sears had everything. Global supply chain, check. Top notch distribution operation, check. System and infrastructure to take orders and handling billing, check. Name recognition and established customer base, check. They threw it all away, ending catalog operations in 1993 a year before Amazon.com opened in 1994. They owned part of Prodigy in 1984! Yet somehow thought it was a better move to expand into bigger box re…

>Global supply chain I know you said "supply chain", but do Sears really have much presence outside the US? I'm asking because I never heard of Sears before coming to the US. Might not be zero (I find there is Sears in Mexico at least), but definitely not strong compared to Walmart, Carrefour, etc.

> I know you said "supply chain", but do Sears really have much presence outside the US?

Depends how you count it. Sears Canada had about double the number of stores per capita as Sears USA. By the end, they were mostly a separate corporate entity from Sears USA, and shuttered all their stores over a year ago.

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