Live data from Hacker News

Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

cnbc.com

231–240 of 568 posts

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#231
post #60
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being too early is as bad as being wrong.

The point isn't that they were too early, it's that they gave up too quickly. Buying online and picking up from a store really isn't that advanced of a concept.

Walmart does this really well.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#232
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of Sears remaining valuable assets, though, is the real estate left over from its standalone stores. That's one of the bones that the creditors are salivating over.

What is it that makes the real estate valuable though? A mall with a big hole in it doesn't seem like a good investment. If Sears couldn't make a go of it it's hard to see how anybody else could.

Maybe the fallout shelters?

Virtually every Sears standalone store - at least up thru the 1980s, was also a fallout shelter (with air raid siren and everything).

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a good example to those that claim companies should pay employees liberally. Unless you're in a niche that people are willing to pay a margin for or serve upscale customers who also don't mind paying margins (Costco, Whole Foods, Nordstroms, Apple, etc), then you're going to lose business to competitors offering lower prices. In this situation, the only way to improve the well being of those whose labor isn't as…

I am extremely wary of n=1 reasoning. It ends us being confirmation bias. We look at Sears, note that they pay more than Walmart, and say that paying employees more either has no effect, or is harmful. But are we also looking at the thousands of businesses that pay their employees terrible wages, but go out of business? Businesses are complex systems that defy the search for simple explanations. That won't stop human…

This reminds me about a recent Freakonomics podcast about Trader Joe's. It starts off by asking, what would you think about a grocery store with no name brands, much fewer options, no sales on items, not loyalty program, no automated checkout, no large social media presence, no large advertising budget, etc? A lot of it sounds bad, but Trader Joe's is really successful.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#235
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point isn't that they were too early, it's that they gave up too quickly. Buying online and picking up from a store really isn't that advanced of a concept.

Buying online and picking up from a store really isn't that advanced of a concept. You're right. Service Merchandise build an empire around it, just by mail or phone instead of computer. Other stores did it, too. JCPenny comes to mind. Even some local and regional chains. Amazon and others think they've invented something. But once again, it's just SV re-inventing something that worked last century.

Amazon is not a SV company.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#236
post #35

My first online shopping experience was with Sears over Prodigy in 1991. You could browse online, or order from the paper catalog (which is more likely what you'd do because NAPLPS graphics didn't lend themselves well, or at all, to product depictions). Then they'd ship to you, or you could go to the order pickup area at your local Sears store. They had a touchscreen kiosk there where you'd punch in your order number…

My local grocery store had a drive-thru pickup back in the 90s. The strange part was you still had to pick your own items and check out conventionally. Then walk to your car and drive through the pickup area. They converted it to a cart return around the turn of the century.

If they simply had a way to order ahead they would have been two decades ahead of the current industry.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#237
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lampert actively accelerated it's downfall to enormous personal gain. What exactly did he gain? His hedge fund invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Sears, and it's not even clear that they broke even. Meanwhile, stocks were on their longest rally in history.

I a nutshell, his playbook was: 1/ buy tonnes of stock at a discount via his "arms length" hedge fund 2/ as CEO take the billions of cash that Sears was flush with at the time and authorize share repurchases (almost 6 billion over 5 years, at premiums up to $170/share) 3/ defer any reinvestment in existing assets (stores, people, innovation) 4/ liquidate assets of value (i.e. brands) 5/ blame outside forces like mark…

>1/ buy tonnes of stock at a discount via his "arms length" hedge fund

Lampert owns around 30% of outstanding Sears stock and ESL holds around 20%. He bought all that at far above current prices, paying hundreds of millions over the years to buy the stock. Now he's going to take a significant haircut in bankruptcy court, so much so that he's trying to throw another $4B into this hole to save his investment.

Sears Holdings has a market cap of $23M today. He's already lost hundreds of millions on this.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Costco's average customer is definitely higher income than the average American, although I've seen different attempts to quantify this. The first result from a Google search gives me this: https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/17/who-is-costcos-fav... A couple of factors act as a "filter" that makes Costco less worthwhile for lower income shoppers: - Buying in bulk requires a bunch of cash up front, which not every…

In Chicago a Costco membership is worth it just for the gas. It's usually at least 50 cents per gallon less expensive than nearby stations. I have no idea how they do that. Also, for new parents: you can easily save the cost of the membership on diapers and wipes for the year or so your child wears them. They always have a car parked in front or by the customer service center to advertise their auto purchase program.…

Costco loves the concept of price anchoring. That's why the diamond rings and tvs are right near the front, and their liquor isle has $1,000 bottles.

The concept is that when you decide against buying the $1,000 thing, the $50 thing seems a good comprise. If all you had were $10 things, the $50 thing would seem to be 'too much'.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#239
post #165
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought this as well until I heard a counter-point [0] which was very convincing. The reason Amazon is successful is not because you can shop online (from a catalog) and receive items in the mail. The reason Amazon is successful is because you can do those things and receive your items within two days. Before Prime existed, Amazon had very quick fulfillment, and after Prime two-day it became even better. The Sears…

TBH, I think there's a much better case to be made for Sears doubling down on some of its core assets and creating Home Depot before Home Depot did. Its store footprints weren't right, which is no small thing. But they were already a significant home improvement and major appliance store. They probably had a window when it was clear that discount retailers (and some high-end stores) were the future of "department sto…

They literally had the best tools in the world - my dad swore by Craftsman, told me never to bother buying any other brand. Then they threw it away on a demonstration of Randian philosophy.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As it grows larger, the "Amazon marketplace" is getting more and more filled with garbage knockoff products and fake reviews. There may eventually come a tipping point where they lose user trust.

My hope is that smaller, more focused online retailers and marketplaces emerge that can compete in specific verticals. For example, I already go to non-amazon sites where I prefer to buy music gear and computer hardware.

This is more popular in EU. In many countries Amazon even does not operate, and even in Germany people try to prefer different place if they can.
Post reply on HN