Sears has another chance to avoid closing down • Hacker News Board

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#191

Post by jandrese » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:00 PM UTC

tjr wrote: post #140

rhino369 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Standard microwaves are 1100 watt, but there are also 700 watt microwaves. Those extra 3 amps must have set off his circuit breaker.

Sounds about right. Also, this was an above-stove unit, limiting possible choices. Probably could have more easily found a standalone unit that worked.

Especially if it was an odd size. The downside to built-in microwaves is that it took many years for the industry to decide on what sizes they would support, so older installs are always a crapshoot. If you have a weird one it can be hell finding an appropriate microwave. My parents had a very old microwave (1980s era) built into their house that was much bigger than almost everything on the market today, finding a replacement for it was impossible, they ended up having to buy a smaller one and making a custom shim to fit it in the old cavity.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#192

Post by CoolGuySteve » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:01 PM UTC

xigency wrote: post #96

wombatpm wrote: post #5

Sears had everything. Global supply chain, check. Top notch distribution operation, check. System and infrastructure to take orders and handling billing, check. Name recognition and established customer base, check. They threw it all away, ending catalog operations in 1993 a year before Amazon.com opened in 1994. They owned part of Prodigy in 1984! Yet somehow thought it was a better move to expand into bigger box re…

I thought this as well until I heard a counter-point [0] which was very convincing. The reason Amazon is successful is not because you can shop online (from a catalog) and receive items in the mail. The reason Amazon is successful is because you can do those things and receive your items within two days. Before Prime existed, Amazon had very quick fulfillment, and after Prime two-day it became even better. The Sears…

Not to be snarky, but there needs to be a name for selective amnesia when an idea that seems obvious in retrospect is ignored later on.

In this case, the thing that made Amazon so great, before Prime existed, was that it had the "Things you might also like" section.

AFAIK it was one of the first online stores that used machine learning to recommend new and related items you didn't realize you wanted and to have user ratings for each item.

It was especially powerful for books/movies/music just due to the sheer volume of different titles that makes it hard to find new content you might like.

There are a lot of retailers that had the logistics and infrastructure for online sales, but the kind of marketing that Amazon did for up-selling was wholly new and something that could only be done online. So even if Sears could do it, it wasn't obvious back then to anyone that they should do it or how to do it.

Even now, the Walmart and Target web stores recommendations are just ok compared to Amazon. Even eBay seems less comprehensive in its recommendations.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#193

Post by philwelch » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:01 PM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #37

Tsubasachan wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those who are first will later be last for the times are changing... Is there anything people don't buy online these days?

There's a lot of stuff I don't buy online. Clothes -- I like to try them on first. Tools -- I like to see if they are well made and how they feel in my hand. Photos on a website don't provide this. Food -- I want to check produce and meat before I buy it. And it's easier to stop at shops I'm passing on my way home anyway. Household supplies -- I don't want to deal with disposing of shipping boxes, styrofoam peanuts a…

Sure, but people can and do buy these things online as well, and some of these are well-suited for a hybrid approach. With clothes, for example, once I find my preferred SKU of trousers or shoes or whatever, I will just buy replacements online rather than return to the store where I bought my first pair, because they're a mass-produced product.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#194

Post by xnyan » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:01 PM UTC

OldHand2018 wrote: post #112

alexhutcheson wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Costco's average customer is definitely higher income than the average American, although I've seen different attempts to quantify this. The first result from a Google search gives me this: https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/06/17/who-is-costcos-fav... A couple of factors act as a "filter" that makes Costco less worthwhile for lower income shoppers: - Buying in bulk requires a bunch of cash up front, which not every…

In Chicago a Costco membership is worth it just for the gas. It's usually at least 50 cents per gallon less expensive than nearby stations. I have no idea how they do that. Also, for new parents: you can easily save the cost of the membership on diapers and wipes for the year or so your child wears them. They always have a car parked in front or by the customer service center to advertise their auto purchase program.…

Costco makes ~75% of their profit from memberships, gas is like their iconic $5 rotisserie chicken - sell it at cost or a small loss as a incentive to buy and maintain membership. Gas prices are posted outside so it's a particularity public ad for costco membership and as such they have a strong incentive to push the price as low as feasible.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#195

Post by ticmasta » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:01 PM UTC

Aunche wrote: post #138

ticmasta wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

dig into the back story; aside from the public challenges of a traditional brick&mortar retailer, Lampert actively accelerated it's downfall to enormous personal gain. He literally destroyed the business (let the retail stores fall into disrepair) while he sold off it's most valuable assets like the brands and milked it for cash as a major creditor. He is a modern day robber-baron with none of the mystique or cachet…

> Lampert actively accelerated it's downfall to enormous personal gain. What exactly did he gain? His hedge fund invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Sears, and it's not even clear that they broke even. Meanwhile, stocks were on their longest rally in history.

I a nutshell, his playbook was:

1/ buy tonnes of stock at a discount via his "arms length" hedge fund

2/ as CEO take the billions of cash that Sears was flush with at the time and authorize share repurchases (almost 6 billion over 5 years, at premiums up to $170/share)

3/ defer any reinvestment in existing assets (stores, people, innovation)

4/ liquidate assets of value (i.e. brands)

5/ blame outside forces like markets, competition and (hilarious if it wasn't so sad) the media

here's a quote from 2007:

"we will not spend money on capital expenditures to build new stores or upgrade our existing base simply because our competitors do. If share repurchases or acquisitions appear to be more productive, then we will allocate capital to those options appropriately."

He put his own unsecured financing (equity) at the front of the line ahead of traditional obligations (i.e. running the business) and liabilities (like say, pension obligations) by making share purchases a priority. At the time & market conditions this was an obvious self-serving move.

His performance has been described as "the most protracted liquidation in history" - we're just now observing the conclusion.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#196

Post by AndrewKemendo » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:04 PM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #50

ben1040 wrote: post #35

My first online shopping experience was with Sears over Prodigy in 1991. You could browse online, or order from the paper catalog (which is more likely what you'd do because NAPLPS graphics didn't lend themselves well, or at all, to product depictions). Then they'd ship to you, or you could go to the order pickup area at your local Sears store. They had a touchscreen kiosk there where you'd punch in your order number…

Being too early is as bad as being wrong.

I think it's worse honestly because there is the pain of watching it actually work and forever not (really) ever knowing why your version failed.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#197

Post by sejordan » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:04 PM UTC

ForHackernews wrote: post #135

artursapek wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if Amazon will ever get to that point. It's hard to imagine.

As it grows larger, the "Amazon marketplace" is getting more and more filled with garbage knockoff products and fake reviews. There may eventually come a tipping point where they lose user trust.

I feel like every time there is a discussion about Amazon on the Internet, this point is brought up.

I spent about $9,000 on Amazon across 139 orders in 2018. I buy a lot on Amazon. I've never had a problem with receiving knockoff products. I don't understand how this can be such a prevalent issue when I've not run into it, given how much I use Amazon.

The only thing I can think is that, if I'm buying something expensive, I'll strictly only purchase items "Sold by: Amazon.com Services, Inc" or alternatively, I'll use a marketplace seller if the seller is the manufacturer of the item I'm buying.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#198

Post by lotsofpulp » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:04 PM UTC

kevinconaway wrote: post #117

lotsofpulp wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a good example to those that claim companies should pay employees liberally. Unless you're in a niche that people are willing to pay a margin for or serve upscale customers who also don't mind paying margins (Costco, Whole Foods, Nordstroms, Apple, etc), then you're going to lose business to competitors offering lower prices. In this situation, the only way to improve the well being of those whose labor isn't as…

> Unless you're in a niche that people are willing to pay a margin for or serve upscale customers who also don't mind paying margins (Costco, Whole Foods, Nordstroms, Apple, etc) Is it fair to lump Costco in with these other companies as an example of places where consumers don't mind paying higher margins? From a quick google search on gross profit margins: - Costco: 13% - Nordstrom: 38% - Apple: 38% - Costco: 33% C…

I lumped Costco in there just because its known for paying above average wages. I don't see these 4 stores outside of affluent, or at least upper middle class areas. I would say even Trader Joes can be lumped into there.

But the point is that if Walmart or Sams club wanted to raise their wages to match Costco, it would hurt their business because their customers can't afford it.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#199

Post by jandrese » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:05 PM UTC

LeftTurnSignal wrote: post #101

Panino wrote: post #7

Sears is a macro-example of the phrase, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Seems like this company has been walking dead for years. When the October news hit that Sears was going out of business, my wife and I used up all our Sears points (kind of like airline miles) to get tons of free food from Kmart. Then Sears kept just giving her points so we kept getting free stuff. How on ea…

I had a friend who worked at Kmart during the Sears transition and stayed until it closed a few years ago (or so). He worked there for maybe 12 years total, and maybe 7 of that as a manager. The first week after he started there, he started to wonder how they could stay in business. He said most of his time (in the 12 years) was spent walking around, cleaning, organizing or just watching TV just because there wasn't…

My local K-Mart was never packed, but it was never empty either. And there was always a line at the registers, mostly because they had the slowest checkout system on planet Earth. Some parts of the store looked like a Mad Max set like the tools area, but other parts managed to alright like the clothing section.

It was still my backup shopping choice if Target didn't have something I needed.

Re: Sears has another chance to avoid closing down

#200

Post by xnyan » Tue, Jan 08, 2019, 6:05 PM UTC

excalibur wrote: post #89

ams6110 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot of stuff I don't buy online. Clothes -- I like to try them on first. Tools -- I like to see if they are well made and how they feel in my hand. Photos on a website don't provide this. Food -- I want to check produce and meat before I buy it. And it's easier to stop at shops I'm passing on my way home anyway. Household supplies -- I don't want to deal with disposing of shipping boxes, styrofoam peanuts a…

Pretty much in agreement here, although I do find it more convenient to buy appliances through the big box store's website than to go in person and spend an hour guiding an associate through the options in their arcane inventory system.

Also you get to avoid most of the 99% profit-for-them "warranty" hard sell. I try not to hold it against the salesperson as I've done that kind of job and I know they don't have a choice but it's still incredibly annoying.