Hindsight is 20-20. When Apple released a forecast of 89 billion dollars with the bulk of the revenue from the new devices, it seemed more like wishful thinking, I should have shorted the stock. I wonder if the smart money didn't do that... they would have recognized this right away. It would have been the perfect moment to bet.
Apple’s Errors
101–110 of 136 posts
Re: Apple’s Errors
#102Fools and their throw-away culture can stuff it. Luxury goods last a long time and you don't replace them on a regular basis. Angela Ahrendts is probably bringing some much needed sanity into the tech industry. Getting a new phone every year is not sustainable.
Re: Apple’s Errors
#103> Apple seems to have underestimated iPhone SE demand to a significant degree I would love to purchase a new iPhone (or Android) if they were to make a new device with a comparable form factor to the SE. Instead, everything has progressed to these two-handed monstrosities that have resulted in fanny packs [1] becoming fashionable again simply to hold the damn things. [1] https://www.today.com/style/fanny-packs-are-so…
I know two people who said they won’t buy another phone until the day their SE won’t turn on. I agree, SE form factor solves a great problem for some people. Not everyone wants a big screen! Apple either isn’t making enough money on the SE, not listening to their survey group, or an executive doesn’t care. They need to fix this.
[deleted]
Re: Apple’s Errors
#104This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11 [1, 2, 3]. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half o…
I don't think this surprised Apple. In their September 2018 event [0], Lisa Jackson took the stage to say that Apple sees longer-lived devices as a goal of the company, from both a consumer and environmental standpoint. She specifically called out the renewed life that iOS 12 will bring to older devices. On top of that, at WWDC 2018 [1], Federighi heralded the new life customers will find when iOS 12 would be release…
If all (or most of) the growth is in services as Apple claims, why hike hardware prices so much that it could over time erode their installed base?
I believe the answer is that Apple doesn't really believe that service revenue will grow fast enough to compensate for longer hardware replacement cycles.
And that belief is probably justified because their service offering doesn't seem very robust at this point.
Re: Apple’s Errors
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know two people who said they won’t buy another phone until the day their SE won’t turn on. I agree, SE form factor solves a great problem for some people. Not everyone wants a big screen! Apple either isn’t making enough money on the SE, not listening to their survey group, or an executive doesn’t care. They need to fix this.
Does anyone really think Apple hasn’t done market research to determine which size phone would be best for them to sell? As mentioned in one of the other comments, SE was using the production lines of the 5/5s. It probably isn’t worth it to keep those going for an older phone and the R&D for a new smaller phone is a huge cost. I’m sure it’s been proven that most people want larger screens at this point. I mean, even…
No no no. People with small hands don’t want large phones. You can’t take ergonomics out of the equation. You can add a small keyboard or whatever you want. Some people actually can’t use big devices. Shorter people are not a small minority for crying out loud. There’s a decision being made somewhere along the line that’s taking the smaller phone away from these people. It’s probably not an issue in focus groups. That leaves you with the other two options.
Re: Apple’s Errors
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's also much better for the platform that there isn't such a wide range between screen sizes. Not a wide range? What about the iPad and iPad Pro? iOS apps need a responsive interface anyway.
Ipad apps are separately purchased apps though.
Not always, a lot of apps are universal and can be installed on both iPhones and iPads, with the UI being adapted to each.
Re: Apple’s Errors
#107It's amazing that how everyone but Apple knows how to run their business.
What do you think business analysis should just disappear?
Re: Apple’s Errors
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know what phone I am going to get after my iPhone SE no longer works after OS bloat kicks in. It's the perfect phone pretty much. I like android better but I can't find a phone this size that works in the android universe. Surely there must be others like me that want a capable phone that isn't the size of a tablet?
Pixel 3 (not 3XL) to me is perfect size, has the "it works" simplicity and polish of iPhone, and tuned software / camera tweaks of Google that make me not miss iPhone at all. Specifically the camera is just amazing, the portrait mode and wide angle screen shot features, and AI / visual core chip tuning the pictures makes the quality better than any other phone I've used.
The Pixel 3 is huge compared to what I'm looking for. I know the bigger screens like 5.5" are normal now but it is too big for me, I like to travel light and hate big phones in my pocket and hands. I like computing on an actual desktop computer with a mouse and keyboard and just use my phone for texting, maps, and taking photos, etc.
https://www.phonearena.com/phones/size#/phones/size/Google-P...
Re: Apple’s Errors
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018.…
> that's just barely enough for the modern Web these days - and newer iOS apps can't be that much lighter, either! You might be surprised. Desktop safari is significantly more resource (including memory) efficient than Chrome and Firefox. And iOS apps are written in objective-c and swift, which are also a lot more memory efficient than say Java or JavaScript. Of course, 1GB of RAM is still pretty small. But if the id…
I have two coworkers still running 4Ses, which are more than 7 years old now. Smallish company, maybe 25 people in my office. It still makes phone calls, sends texts, and takes photos, so they'll upgrade when it dies.
Stuck on iOS 9 with that so it might not be a good idea from a security perspective, but I'm impressed with the hardware. At least one of them I know had a screen replacement, but still.
Re: Apple’s Errors
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think this surprised Apple. In their September 2018 event [0], Lisa Jackson took the stage to say that Apple sees longer-lived devices as a goal of the company, from both a consumer and environmental standpoint. She specifically called out the renewed life that iOS 12 will bring to older devices. On top of that, at WWDC 2018 [1], Federighi heralded the new life customers will find when iOS 12 would be release…
If all (or most of) the growth is in services as Apple claims, why hike hardware prices so much that it could over time erode their installed base? I believe the answer is that Apple doesn't really believe that service revenue will grow fast enough to compensate for longer hardware replacement cycles. And that belief is probably justified because their service offering doesn't seem very robust at this point.
Apple didn't just raise prices, for the sake of raising prices. Their takeaway [0] from the iPhone X was that customers were willing to pay for more advanced and more expensive features. FaceID, OLED, stainless steel, etc. Apple is making more expensive products (not just raising prices), because people have shown that they want to pay more for more value.
Lots of people on HN, as well as elsewhere, will take issue with that philosophy. But that is what Apple thinks, and why they have the roadmap they do.
Inevitably, there is a limit to that price elasticity, but I don't think this quarter indicates that the devices are too expensive. Also, I think you are right about services. It is the only current growth story, but 1.5 billion devices is a lot, and they will upgrade at some point in the future, most likely to another iPhone. But you are correct that there is nothing that will replace the rocket ship that was iPhone.
[0] Tim Cook - "And I think that iPhone X shows that when you deliver a great, innovative product there's enough people there that would would like that and it can be a really good business." https://www.imore.com/apple-earnings-q3-2018