Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#191

Post by vesrah » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:21 PM UTC

tedivm wrote: post #134

bdhess wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you comparing it to when you say "relatively expensive"? I've read reviews comparing it favorably to a BMW 3 Series, which is in the same price range.

The Model S was in the same price range as the BMW 3 Series but only when you take into account the tax credit which just expired. Without that tax credit there's a difference of over $7k. That's part of the reason why Tesla is dropping their prices a bit now.

How was the Model S in the same price range as a 3 series? A Model S started around $70k after the tax credit was taken into account, a 3 series starts at about $40k. Do you mean the Model 3, rather than the S?

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#192

Post by gibolt » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:23 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #166

dmode wrote: post #155

"Automaker sold 63,150 Model 3 in the fourth quarter" - [and this is only in North America] What Tesla has achieved is truly unbelievable and it is kind of hilarious to see HN meltdown and Tesla bashing. To give you a perspective on how much of a gigantic scale this is, BMW only sold 99,000 3/4 series in the US in all on 2017 [1]. Tesla is a carmaker who only sold ~100 vehicles in 2011. It is amazing how much of Tesl…

Meanwhile, Toyota, which is only at 3x the market cap of Tesla, sold >2,200,000 vehicles in Q4. It ships more combined battery capacity in its hybrids, then Tesla does in its EVs.

Tesla will produce close to 400k cars from one factory in 2019. It is now (relatively) easy for them to reproduce that with all their learnings in additional factories around the world.

They also own an energy and solar branch of the company which have huge growth potential and run their own electric (gas) stations.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#193

Post by gibolt » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:28 PM UTC

clouddrover wrote: post #143

martythemaniak wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know what he's done to earn my trust, or any investor's. The ~20x ROI since IPO has made many people trust him. Tesla itself is a marvelous success, with no established car maker able to match them yet. It is far more likely that your personal dislike of him is making you see a distorted reality.

> with no established car maker able to match them yet. The Hyundai Kona EV is cheaper, has good range, and outperforms new model Teslas in 24-hour efficiency (interestingly finishing second to the original Tesla Roadster): https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-gets-shockingly-... https://electrek.co/2018/12/23/tesla-roadster-24-hour-electr... Teslas are among the least reliable cars you can buy. If you want hi…

Kona will only be available in a small number of U.S. states and global regions, in limited quantities.

It is a compliance car, to reduce the emissions overall of the fleet they sell allowing them to sell more high profit ICE cars. They are likely losing money on each sale as well.

I think the Kona is a great start and wish it would have a better chance, but it is crippled from the beginning.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#194

Post by _ea1k » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:30 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #67

300bps wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Q32018: 55,800 Model 3s delivered. Q42018: 63,100 Model 3s delivered. That's a 13% growth rate in a single quarter which is more than 50% growth rate annualized.

If Tesla was expecting 50% annualized growth, or even growth comparable to their recent historical trends, they would not have cut the price tag on every model of car they sell.

I don't follow your logic here. With the reduced tax incentive, Teslas have seen an effective increase of ~$1,750 USD.

Would you normally argue that a yearly price increase of ~3% on a car portends anything in particular about demand? I guess it implies that they expected demand to fall if the increase had been ~6% instead, but that doesn't seem like anything that would preclude 50% worldwide growth.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#195

Post by anthonybsd » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:30 PM UTC

adamqureshi wrote: post #173

Tesla is the ONLY player with a direct to consumer model. They are a native EV start up. All others right now are legacy car makers (non native) using the old franchise distribution model. Tesla OS is its bread and butter. They built the vehicle from scratch for EV. They effectively "PULLED" ever other car maker into the MIX. The legacy car makers had no other choice but to jump into the fray and take their chances.

>Tesla is the ONLY player with a direct to consumer model

You are saying it like it's necessarily a good thing.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#196

Post by Green_man » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:31 PM UTC

dmode wrote: post #150

johnvanommen wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once Jaguar, Porsche and Audi are able to produce electric cars in quantity, things are going to get interesting. For instance, I was recently looking at the Jaguar I-Pace, and was stunned by how long the wait and how high the markups are. Clearly there's a demand for a $100,000 electric car, but things are going to get difficult for Tesla once the competition arrives.

Chevy Bolt was supposed to end Tesla as well. Didn't really happen, did it ?

The model 3 was supposed to compete with the Bolt on price- that didn't really happy either (yet), did it?

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#197

Post by gibolt » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:32 PM UTC

jsgo wrote: post #158

andrewtbham wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This narrative doesn't resonate with me. Forward looking statements are speculative, especially when you're innovating new technologies. I personally trust Elon Musk and I am a large investor. I don't expect him to hit all his targets, but I trust him to only raise money on the heels of good news.

His pitch on the solar tiles that would cost* at or less a typical shingled roof had me incredibly sold, but it seems that has taken a back seat as of late in his endeavors. Yeah, would love an electric car, but until they hit the $35k price point, it isn't happening anytime soon for me. But a fairly priced solar setup for home? Sign me up. * not sure if it was initial cost or cost over the life of plus the energy sa…

It is over the life of shingles plus energy. That won't be true of the first few years of sales.

As an upside, I think the comparison is with one roof replacement, which is supposed to be done every 8-20 years. Tesla tiles should last 100 years.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#198

Post by drenvuk » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:35 PM UTC

rconti wrote: post #176

drenvuk wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What the GP posted is a bit misleading, you either get the rebate or the carpool lane stickers if you're over the cap but not both. It does suck but I think it's for the best. The hov lane in norcal is becoming relatively crowded lately since electric cars were a rarity before but not so much now.

They've been crowded at least since the yellow sticker 'Prius' program of, what, 2007?

I wouldn't know. I'm part of the new blood that came to the bay area after that to ruin everything. :)

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#199

Post by gibolt » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:38 PM UTC

anthonybsd wrote: post #188

dmode wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has the highest consumer satisfaction rating and brand loyalty of any car maker [1] [1] https://electrek.co/2017/12/21/tesla-tsla-tops-customer-sati...

I suspect Model 3 will change all that, unfortunately :(

Evidence? Most Model S and 3 owners I've heard prefer the ride of the 3.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#200

Post by gibolt » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 9:41 PM UTC

twblalock wrote: post #74

luckydata wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Competition has been arriving for quite a while though. Having just bought a Tesla, I can tell you I'm starting to appreciate more than just intellectually the huge network of chargers and other infrastructure that company has laid out. It's not perfect but anyone else wanting to play in this market will need the same, and Jaguar is in no position to do it. I don't think anyone at Tesla is losing any sleep over Jagua…

Other brands have dealerships all over the country where they could install chargers. I'd say the barrier to doing that is pretty low. For example, if every BMW or Audi dealership had some charging spots for owners of their cars, it would probably have more nationwide coverage than Tesla's Supercharger network. The dealerships are also frequently located in convenient places near major highway exits, etc.

*Could

Even if people wanted to charge at dealerships, dealerships aren't incentivized to sell electric cars, much less charge them.

The proof is that any Chevy dealer that sells the Bolt should have a public charger already, but I'm guessing few do.