Earlier quoted context omitted.
> "they are very profitable producing at current rates" You don't know that. They had one big, profitable, immaculate quarter in Q3 by pulling all demand forward and using every accounting trick in the book to show profit. There is no guarantee there will be another quarter like that. In fact, if Tesla's earnings history shows anything, it's that losses will be even bigger than before.
Bingo! Q3 and Q4 numbers should absolutely be taken with a grain of salt. It was a confluence of all positive points. a) Accounting b) Pent up demand for larger priced vehicles c) Peak Economy Going forward, a) Weakened Global Economy b) Everyone who is passionate about owning Tesla has bought one. Sustainable demand and profit will be clearer in 2019 Q2 and forward. I can make a public bet that it wouldn't be greate…
Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
141–150 of 267 posts
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
Other brands have dealerships all over the country where they could install chargers. I'd say the barrier to doing that is pretty low. For example, if every BMW or Audi dealership had some charging spots for owners of their cars, it would probably have more nationwide coverage than Tesla's Supercharger network. The dealerships are also frequently located in convenient places near major highway exits, etc.
I live in Seattle, east of here there is one BMW dealer on my way home and next closest BMW dealer is in Boise, Idaho. I can’t drive to my home town and visit a dealership. That means an electric BMW would need a range of 1,000-1,200 miles to be remotely comparable to an ICE car or Tesla. Putting universal chargers at existing gas stations or buying an entire brand and converting to charging makes way more sense.
Gas stations are obviously a great place for chargers because they're already properly distributed along well travelled routes. I think there's probably going to be a market for either an existing restaurant coffee chain with a lot of existing real estate (or perhaps a new chain that's a bit more upscale) to partner with Tesla and any of the other electric car manufacturers and build a concept around high quality food with quick turn around (like order ahead and eat in under the time it takes your car to charge). Gas stations as they currently exist can be pretty bleak places to spend 30 minutes
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#143Earlier quoted context omitted.
Characterizing lying to the SEC and calling a Thai cave rescuer a "pedo" as such is stretching the definition of "forward-looking statement." Musk has always been largely bluster, but now the bluster is hurting people, and his companies as well. He's the biggest liability Tesla has. I don't know what he's done to earn my trust, or any investor's.
> I don't know what he's done to earn my trust, or any investor's. The ~20x ROI since IPO has made many people trust him. Tesla itself is a marvelous success, with no established car maker able to match them yet. It is far more likely that your personal dislike of him is making you see a distorted reality.
> with no established car maker able to match them yet.
The Hyundai Kona EV is cheaper, has good range, and outperforms new model Teslas in 24-hour efficiency (interestingly finishing second to the original Tesla Roadster):
https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-gets-shockingly-...
https://electrek.co/2018/12/23/tesla-roadster-24-hour-electr...
Teslas are among the least reliable cars you can buy. If you want high reliability and low maintenance costs, you're best off with a sensible Toyota today:
https://www.consumerreports.org/media-room/press-releases/20...
Here are some currently available and soon to be available EVs from established car makers:
https://www.hyundai.co.uk/new-cars/kona-electric
https://www.kia.com/uk/new-cars/all-new-e-niro/
https://www.jaguarusa.com/all-models/i-pace/index.html
VW has to sell electrics to meet the new fleet emissions targets set by the EU and they're going to do it with their MEB platform:
http://fortune.com/2018/12/20/volkswagen-electric-cars-emiss...
https://electrek.co/2018/09/18/vw-meb-platform-electric-for-...
Right now the primary reason to buy a Tesla is the novelty of buying a battery electric. But when all manufacturers are producing battery electrics, why am I buying a Tesla?
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m not pro-Tesla, I think they’re horribly mismanaged, but let’s be real. The Model 3 is selling well, and ONLY in the US. Even if they hit peak demand they can just start selling to Europe and China (planned for later this year) and they’ll have plenty of new customers.
China has a higher barrier to entry than any other market, esp. in the EV market, which is going to favor the homegrown options. The current trade war isn’t going to help Tesla. My prediction is that Tesla remains a novelty brand in Asia. Japan is similarly capable of taking care of its own market, and I wouldn’t want to take on Toyota when it comes to exports to South Asia, Africa, etc.
That's why they're building a factory in Shanghai right now: https://electrek.co/2018/12/31/elon-musk-groundbreaking-tesl...
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
People are skeptical of Tesla because people are skeptical of Elon. His dozens of misleading statements and half-truths over the years have caught up with him.
This narrative doesn't resonate with me. Forward looking statements are speculative, especially when you're innovating new technologies. I personally trust Elon Musk and I am a large investor. I don't expect him to hit all his targets, but I trust him to only raise money on the heels of good news.
> Forward looking statements are speculative, especially when you're innovating new technologies
The innovation comes purely from the battery and associated electronics. The rest of the car is pretty standard and it's in this area where they are having problems.
There are plenty of car companies with electric cars today e.g. Jaguar, BMW, Nissan, GM and in 2019/2020 everyone else is jumping onboard e.g. Audi, Landrover etc. And they have managed to hit their targets.
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It is far more likely that your personal dislike of him is making you see a distorted reality. Certainly possible. I personally think he's acting like a buffoon and I haven't been shy about stating it. However, as I told another commenter in this thread, I think the relatively objective argument is that while Musk was necessary initially to get Tesla into existence and functioning, he's now more of a liability than…
> I think the relatively objective argument is that while Musk was necessary initially to get Tesla into existence and functioning Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpennin initially got Tesla into existence.
True, but Elon Musk led their series A, which is also when he joined the company along with J.B. Yes Martin and Marc created the company, but it would not be where it is today without Elon Musk.
It doesn't always matter who initially created the company. For example one of the co-founders of Apple was Ronald Wayne, whom the vast majority of people have never heard of. He left Apple very early and sold all his shares back to Jobs and Wozniak for $800.
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#147Earlier quoted context omitted.
This narrative doesn't resonate with me. Forward looking statements are speculative, especially when you're innovating new technologies. I personally trust Elon Musk and I am a large investor. I don't expect him to hit all his targets, but I trust him to only raise money on the heels of good news.
Characterizing lying to the SEC and calling a Thai cave rescuer a "pedo" as such is stretching the definition of "forward-looking statement." Musk has always been largely bluster, but now the bluster is hurting people, and his companies as well. He's the biggest liability Tesla has. I don't know what he's done to earn my trust, or any investor's.
You are ignoring a decade plus of very impressive results. Sure, the man has significant flaws. That is not justification for an inaccurate portrayal.
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#148The production and delivery numbers they came out with were very good and higher than most had expected. These numbers will allow them another profitable Q4 likely higher than their Q3 numbers. The price cuts are likely to impact margins, but is in line with what Tesla had done with the Model S and X as production efficiencies allow them to reduce manufacturing costs. The reaction looks like a big overreaction as the…
At $50B Market Cap, Tesla should be delivering at least $2B Annual profits. It's clear Tesla has run through higher margin demand. There aren't many people in the world who can afford a $50,000 car. Tesla is a niche market car, but priced as a mass market (like iPhones) product. Expect Tesla's sustainable profit to be around $500 Mil per year and it's share price must be cut in half to justify that
>>At $50B Market Cap, Tesla should be delivering at least $2B Annual profits
There is no rule like that on a growth stock. You don't value growth stock on a P/E ratio, but some measure of future discounted cashflows.
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#149Tesla is definitely hitting the demand ceiling. It's a good thing Musk isn't producing 10000 M3 per week. The current rate of ~4500 per week is enough to meet demand. In fact, expect continuous price drops from Tesla as it struggles to drum up enthusiasm
I’m not pro-Tesla, I think they’re horribly mismanaged, but let’s be real. The Model 3 is selling well, and ONLY in the US. Even if they hit peak demand they can just start selling to Europe and China (planned for later this year) and they’ll have plenty of new customers.
The configuration opened up in Europe in December with a promised delivery in February/March timeline, so there should be a lot of the January production going to Europe.
Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
At $50B Market Cap, Tesla should be delivering at least $2B Annual profits. It's clear Tesla has run through higher margin demand. There aren't many people in the world who can afford a $50,000 car. Tesla is a niche market car, but priced as a mass market (like iPhones) product. Expect Tesla's sustainable profit to be around $500 Mil per year and it's share price must be cut in half to justify that
Once Jaguar, Porsche and Audi are able to produce electric cars in quantity, things are going to get interesting. For instance, I was recently looking at the Jaguar I-Pace, and was stunned by how long the wait and how high the markups are. Clearly there's a demand for a $100,000 electric car, but things are going to get difficult for Tesla once the competition arrives.
Chevy Bolt was supposed to end Tesla as well. Didn't really happen, did it ?