What Is Going to Happen in 2019 • Hacker News Board

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#91

Post by aidenn0 » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:51 PM UTC

iak8god wrote: post #77

lesss365 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's your chance https://www.predictit.org

Specifically, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-Donald-Tr... Currently about 73% yes

What's the overhead of trading on predictit because the impeachment[1] "yes" of 37% is way too close to the currently 30% "no" of him being in office; I think the odds of him ending the year as president if impeached is at least 50%, so there should be some way to arbitrage this.

[edit] I suppose there is the chance of him pulling a Nixon and resigning before impeachment, as well as the chance of him dying. I consider both of those to be less likely; he is to confrontational to back down from just the threat of impeachment of a house with an opposition majority; if anything being impeached by a partisan vote would be fodder for his conservative base.

1: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Tr...

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#92

Post by hannasanarion » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:52 PM UTC

ThomPete wrote: post #64

skywhopper wrote: post #30

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

While I agree there is a lot of BS in the crypto world I think we are dealing with a classic case of overestimating in the short run and underestimating in the long run. Instead of starting with decentralization in your thinking and then trying to find value through that, start instead with de-institutionalization. The potential of crypto is not the individual currency but the network of currencies. Our parents/grand…

>Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today.

Repeating this over and over again doesn't make it true. Google, Amazon, and Ebay we're established in the first year of the eternal September, and immediately started changing people's lives. We're 10 years after Bitcoin, and still with nothing to show for it but money laundering and pump and dump schemes.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#93

Post by AnimalMuppet » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:55 PM UTC

paulrpotts wrote: post #69

Ctrl-f "climate" Ctrl-f "carbon" Ctrl-f "green" Nothing of interest. Ctrl-W.

The only thing that could be of interest is the climate? That seems rather narrow-minded.

Also, this is a list of predictions. It is therefore predicting that there will be not much action on the climate in 2019. That seems... plausible.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#94

Post by iak8god » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:58 PM UTC

aidenn0 wrote: post #91

iak8god wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Specifically, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-Donald-Tr... Currently about 73% yes

What's the overhead of trading on predictit because the impeachment[1] "yes" of 37% is way too close to the currently 30% "no" of him being in office; I think the odds of him ending the year as president if impeached is at least 50%, so there should be some way to arbitrage this. [edit] I suppose there is the chance of him pulling a Nixon and resigning before impeachment, as well as the chance of him dying. I conside…

10% on gains, plus 5% on withdrawals: https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5...

The volume may be too low to do much arbitrage.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#95

Post by kthejoker2 » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:01 PM UTC

hannasanarion wrote: post #92

ThomPete wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree there is a lot of BS in the crypto world I think we are dealing with a classic case of overestimating in the short run and underestimating in the long run. Instead of starting with decentralization in your thinking and then trying to find value through that, start instead with de-institutionalization. The potential of crypto is not the individual currency but the network of currencies. Our parents/grand…

>Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Repeating this over and over again doesn't make it true. Google, Amazon, and Ebay we're established in the first year of the eternal September, and immediately started changing people's lives. We're 10 years after Bitcoin, and still with nothing to show for it but money laundering and pump and dump schemes.

Do you think eternal September was when the Internet began?

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#96

Post by ThomPete » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:06 PM UTC

hannasanarion wrote: post #92

ThomPete wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree there is a lot of BS in the crypto world I think we are dealing with a classic case of overestimating in the short run and underestimating in the long run. Instead of starting with decentralization in your thinking and then trying to find value through that, start instead with de-institutionalization. The potential of crypto is not the individual currency but the network of currencies. Our parents/grand…

>Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Repeating this over and over again doesn't make it true. Google, Amazon, and Ebay we're established in the first year of the eternal September, and immediately started changing people's lives. We're 10 years after Bitcoin, and still with nothing to show for it but money laundering and pump and dump schemes.

It doesn't make it false either.

The blockchain is a protocol, not a company.

The TCP/IP protocol was decades old before it became useful to build companies on top of exactly because it required A LOT of networked connectivity, people to make various investments and critical mass from users.

Give it time.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#97

Post by hannasanarion » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:17 PM UTC

kthejoker2 wrote: post #95

hannasanarion wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Repeating this over and over again doesn't make it true. Google, Amazon, and Ebay we're established in the first year of the eternal September, and immediately started changing people's lives. We're 10 years after Bitcoin, and still with nothing to show for it but money laundering and pump and dump schemes.

Do you think eternal September was when the Internet began?

The eternal September is when the internet became public and available to anyone. Do you need a university membership to use blockchain?

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#98

Post by hannasanarion » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:21 PM UTC

ThomPete wrote: post #96

hannasanarion wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Repeating this over and over again doesn't make it true. Google, Amazon, and Ebay we're established in the first year of the eternal September, and immediately started changing people's lives. We're 10 years after Bitcoin, and still with nothing to show for it but money laundering and pump and dump schemes.

It doesn't make it false either. The blockchain is a protocol, not a company. The TCP/IP protocol was decades old before it became useful to build companies on top of exactly because it required A LOT of networked connectivity, people to make various investments and critical mass from users. Give it time.

In the early days of TCPIP, you needed a university membership to get access, and network-capable computers were even more rare. So you're saying that there aren't enough networked computers for blockchain to be viable?

We're currently sitting at around 8 networked devices for every human being, how many more do we need? 15? 20? What is holding blockchain back, since it is definitely not university membership?

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#99

Post by paulrpotts » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 7:26 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #93

paulrpotts wrote: post #69

Ctrl-f "climate" Ctrl-f "carbon" Ctrl-f "green" Nothing of interest. Ctrl-W.

The only thing that could be of interest is the climate? That seems rather narrow-minded. Also, this is a list of predictions. It is therefore predicting that there will be not much action on the climate in 2019. That seems... plausible.

Yes, I agree that there is likely to be not much action. I'm interested in the political predictions as well, although I really don't find the arguments about what is going to come out of the Mueller investigation to be very compelling; I just don't think either R's or D's have enough political will to stop going along to get along. It's not that I don't think President 45 has committed many, many white-collar crimes; I just don't think anyone is going to hold him accountable, and I don't believe Mueller will actually indict the president.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#100

Post by weinzierl » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 7:32 PM UTC

monkeynotes wrote: post #21

weinzierl wrote: post #2

> The eurozone is about to go through the most significant change in decades with some sort of departure of the UK from the EU (Brexit). It remains unclear exactly how this will happen, which in and of itself is creating a lot of uncertainty on the Continent. I don’t expect most businesses in Europe to do anything but play defense in 2019. Of all the things said in the post this stands out to me as the only overly pe…

> I don't expect this state of affairs to drag on through the whole of 2019 Seriously?? The exit is so incredibly complex I can foresee the ramifications dragging into decades. The border problems alone are going to be a political quagmire, to view this sort of thing is a 12 month trifle is short-sighted to say the least. The exit will split the country in half, how on earth can you have 'clarity' when there is basic…

Fred Wilson was speaking about the Continent and my point of view is from the Continent too. I seriously believe that when we will have clarity about the general new relationship countries like France, Germany, Spain, Italy and even the stable smaller ones will execute their pre-planned scenarios and just move on. I don't feel qualified to give an opinion how all of this will pan out for the UK but I hope it will not be as dark as you described.