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What Is Going to Happen in 2019

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Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#51

Post by gfodor »

Guessing the direction of interest rates and speculation about supposed crimes the president did (for which at this point there has been no evidence of) is a pretty poor foundation to build predictions upon since there's a good chance rates stay flat in 2019 and Mueller comes up empty. In that scenario, the stock market still has downward pressure because of the insane valuations, but the storm clouds outlined here fade away for the most part.

One 2019 prediction I have is a resurgence of interest in VR with the release of Oculus Quest. A lot of people have been quietly building for 5 years waiting for this.

On politics I'll go out on a limb here and say that the FBI/DOJ will conclude a number of (under reported, multi-year) investigations and bring indictments for a large number of well-known politicians of both parties.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#52

Post by termie »

thomnottom wrote: post #38
stevespang wrote: post #4

Impeachment will never happen. If you study recent history, an impeachment attempt on Trump will go down just like it did on Clinton - - strictly along party lines. The Clinton vote was razor accurate along party lines when it happened. No majority means no impeachment.

Clinton was impeached.

..by the Republican majority House of Representatives. It can be roughly equated to being charged with a crime. The Senate held a trial and voted for acquittal and therefore no action was taken. Two thirds of the Senate must vote to remove a President from office.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#54

Post by product50 »

logicchains wrote: post #13

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... ). The average person in China is much poorer than the average per…

Why are you expecting China to grow till it achieves per person GDP parity? What is the logic for that?

Do you realize that if China ppp rises that the very factors that makes China such a growing force such as cheaper manufacturing will erode away?

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#55

Post by altairiumblue »

nailer wrote: post #35
altairiumblue wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the Mueller report, so far, has uncovered No, it hasn't. There has been no report.

I've corrected my comment to say 'investigation' instead. The point still stands as I'm sure you're aware.

[flagged]

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#56

Post by beat »

gfodor wrote: post #51

Guessing the direction of interest rates and speculation about supposed crimes the president did (for which at this point there has been no evidence of) is a pretty poor foundation to build predictions upon since there's a good chance rates stay flat in 2019 and Mueller comes up empty. In that scenario, the stock market still has downward pressure because of the insane valuations, but the storm clouds outlined here f…

Actually, there's a lot of evidence for "supposed crimes of the president". Some of his closest advisors (Cohen, Flynn, Manafort) have been convicted of felonies. All of them have cooperated to some degree with Mueller. The fact that Mueller asked for no prison for Flynn says a great deal about how valuable Flynn's testimony has been. Who else would Flynn be testifying against that's so important to Mueller that he'd pay for it with a no-prison plea bargain? Don't let political bias blind to you the evidence.

That said, I'm not at all convinced this will lead to impeachment, although it may lead to resignation. The House isn't going to impeach without a reasonable chance of success in the Senate, and I don't see twenty of McConnell's Republicans voting to destroy Trump, no matter what he did or what he's charged with doing.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#57

Post by gadders »

paulpauper wrote: post #36

People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade…

I came here to say exactly the same thing. I'd be happy to stick money down on Trump still being in power by the end of 2019. And probably by the end of 2024 as well.

I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#58

Post by ryanbrunner »

beat wrote: post #56
gfodor wrote: post #51

Guessing the direction of interest rates and speculation about supposed crimes the president did (for which at this point there has been no evidence of) is a pretty poor foundation to build predictions upon since there's a good chance rates stay flat in 2019 and Mueller comes up empty. In that scenario, the stock market still has downward pressure because of the insane valuations, but the storm clouds outlined here f…

Actually, there's a lot of evidence for "supposed crimes of the president". Some of his closest advisors (Cohen, Flynn, Manafort) have been convicted of felonies. All of them have cooperated to some degree with Mueller. The fact that Mueller asked for no prison for Flynn says a great deal about how valuable Flynn's testimony has been. Who else would Flynn be testifying against that's so important to Mueller that he'd…

It's not unthinkable that a decent number of Republicans would flip, but a precondition of that would probably need to be a plummeting approval rating for Trump, which hasn't borne out so far - despite all the controversy, he still seems to have a 35-40% floor.

One interesting thing about Trump is that he has some of the most stable (albeit somewhat low) approval ratings of any president that there's reliable data for. But he's gone from "historically unpopular" to "about as popular as Reagan, Ford or Clinton" at this point in his presidency.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#59

Post by KasianFranks »

skywhopper wrote: post #30

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

Outside of VC's there's an entire group of software engineers in the financial markets, in particular decent quants that double as ML/NLP specialists, who also understand the value of globally accessible trading vehicles. Time to put the crypto pitchforks away.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#60

Post by swarnie_ »

Fordec wrote: post #45
swarnie_ wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top right quarter of that image... I can name maybe two flags and that's only from European sports, the rest are actually a mystery. Give me the names and i'm sure i would know them, ask me to point them out on a blank map and we're straying back in to embarrassing territory again.

I assume you mean the BSEG section is included? Off the top of my head Russia, Ukraine, Greece, Moldova, Turkey, Georgia, Northern Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Belarus, Romania and Bulgaria are all there anyway. I think I've still missed a handful but I'm pretty happy with my European flag knowledge apparently from that. Acknowledgement: I would like to thank the Eurovision Song Competition appar…

That is the section yes along with CEFTA which i assume is whatever happened after Yugosalavia broke up. I can only pull Greece, Russia and turkey from that.
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