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What Is Going to Happen in 2019

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Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#31

Impeachment will never happen. If you study recent history, an impeachment attempt on Trump will go down just like it did on Clinton - - strictly along party lines. The Clinton vote was razor accurate along party lines when it happened. No majority means no impeachment.

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Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#32

Impeachment will never happen. If you study recent history, an impeachment attempt on Trump will go down just like it did on Clinton - - strictly along party lines. The Clinton vote was razor accurate along party lines when it happened. No majority means no impeachment.

That's assuming the republicans remain cohesive, which assumes a unified voter base. It played that way in the Clinton impeachment for sure. That hasn't always happened historically. Nixon looked solidly in power until all of a sudden he didn't (though of course he resigned before any votes were cast on impeachment).

I agree I wouldn't put money on Trump being removed, but neither would I be shocked if it happened. Things are more complicated than a whip count.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#33

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... ). The average person in China is much poorer than the average per…

It depends on how much growth has been driven by international demand and how much by domestic demand. China has been heavily export-oriented in the past few decades.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#35
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would have voted for Clinton (if I were able to, and Bernie wasn't available). But the Mueller investigation, so far, has uncovered: Trump's lawyer evading some taxes. With all that effort and such minor results it's not looking like they're going to find much.

> But the Mueller report, so far, has uncovered No, it hasn't. There has been no report.

I've corrected my comment to say 'investigation' instead. The point still stands as I'm sure you're aware.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#36
People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade. This is expected given how fast it was growing in the early and mid 2000's.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#37

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

One of my Econ classes posed a question “why would basing a currency on gold be bad” (some hint like that). Essentially, any currency with a finite supply and that can never increase will restrain economic growth.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#38

Impeachment will never happen. If you study recent history, an impeachment attempt on Trump will go down just like it did on Clinton - - strictly along party lines. The Clinton vote was razor accurate along party lines when it happened. No majority means no impeachment.

Clinton was impeached.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#40

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... ). The average person in China is much poorer than the average per…

It's misleading if you're discussing individual standards of living, but it could be relevant if you're discussing trade wars or military power.
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