31–40 of 176 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The difference between "buy options" and "don't put this in your passive retirement fund" is the same difference as "I'm confident in the advice im dispensing" and "I have no idea what I'm talking about". No, it's not at all. Buying options is actively betting on both price and time targets, and carries a much different risk profile compared to simply avoiding a specific investment.
Buying a stock is a "rise eventually" bet, I wonder if it is even possible to buy a "fall eventually" bet. Probably not because nobody would be willing to bet that a company will be around forever!
It has negative payoff after inflation, which is worse than other low to zero risk options (like savings accounts and govt bonds).
In one view, and with long return horizons, an index-based etf is a “will be around forever bet”, in that it bets there will be economic growth on average for as long as the dollar is worth anything. The main way it can go wrong is with hyper inflation.
Maybe going long, with 100% govt bonds is a decent fall eventually bet, but again, that’s targeting a very specific scenario where all of the economy crashes for a long time, but bonds still pay out (better than real estate or other physical goods).
Thank you for posting this one. Saving for later.
But... here's the revenue and profits for Google and Facebook since 2017 (when the article appears to have been written), including analyst forecasts for the next year (* are analyst forecasts). 2017 2018* 2019* Google revenue $110.86B $136.47B $162.64B Facebook revenue $40.65B $55.36B $68.87B Apple revenue $265.60B $277.91B $289.25B While Apple's growth rate seems to be slowing down (due to iPhone sales slowing), bo…
The article is weird in that Google has the single greatest advantage - YouTube. Ctrl + F youtube and ... nothing. TV ad revenue is going to start changing, but the value of video ads is massive. Google has not just YouTube, but the best video advertising platform for others to use. If 15% of the US$70B on TV ads moves to YouTube, Google's growth should be sustainable. Multiply that by not just by the USA but Europe,…
This article completely missed the forest for the trees - the battle for TV is not just a battle for content, it’s a battle for the delivery medium itself! Think about it - how was TV delivered to you before? There are over the air broadcast, satellite, cable/settop, and what’s been called OTT. Except, more and more settop boxes are Rokus, Android TV-based and even some Apple TVs (Verizon 5G was offering those in tes…
The problem, for Google, is they lose market share in the platform market:
https://i2.wp.com/www.cordcuttersnews.com/wp-content/uploads...
And my guess is that Amazon will win this, because like you say, it's better.
But also - Since Amazon controls all the buyer's journey, it can make more money per each ad. Which equals better content.
And in any case, FireTv is a loss leader for Amazon. Hard to compete against those.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
And how much of the internet is powered by digital advertising? The web will look a lot different if that bubble bursts.
Going back to what it was 20 years ago? I'm sold!
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Looking forward to seeing this posted in 2021 and 2023 with the hypothesized massive drop in google’s valuation having failed to materialize.
To be fair the P/E will start to move towards 12. That's just inevitable. If the P/E moves from the 39.37 I just Googled towards 12, the profit needs to triple to maintain share value. Heck, it was over 60 to start the year: https://ycharts.com/companies/GOOG/pe_ratio , and that seems a little insane to me.
Assuming that there's some special r&d, and hard to replicate in their moonshot division(IDK?), or at least the image of one, Some successful moonshots could do wonders to their P/E.
This should have 2017 in the title. In particular Facebook's P/E has dropped from 37 to 20.
Although it lists Google market cap at $690 billion. It's currently $728 billion and that's after a bit of a haircut recently with the overall market.
