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The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

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Re: The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

#11

Post by samspenc »

But... here's the revenue and profits for Google and Facebook since 2017 (when the article appears to have been written), including analyst forecasts for the next year (* are analyst forecasts).

                            2017        2018*     2019*  
  Google revenue          $110.86B    $136.47B   $162.64B
  Facebook revenue         $40.65B     $55.36B    $68.87B
  Apple revenue           $265.60B    $277.91B   $289.25B
While Apple's growth rate seems to be slowing down (due to iPhone sales slowing), both Google and Facebook are apparently predicted to be growing well (by 20% - 30% growth each year.)

Sources: Google: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/goog/analysis/ Facebook: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/fb/analysis/ Apple: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/aapl/analysis/

Re: The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

#14

Post by whttheuuu »

whatshisface wrote: post #8
chillacy wrote: post #2

> But these stocks are based on a reality that no longer exists. The emperor has no clothes. Ok, buy deep OTM put options for tech stocks then? They say the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I’d say the market wasn’t all that rational to begin with. At some level investing is a big game of chicken where you try to get out before everyone realizes how inflated it’s become. As Taleb says, d…

"Buy options" and "don't put this in to your passive retirement fund" are two very different levels of gloom-and-dooming. The market might actually become rational over the next 50+ years; there is such a thing as true information that can't be used to make money in any reasonable term. Another example of true information that can't be used to make money is information that is already priced in. Since this author is…

The difference between "buy options" and "don't put this in your passive retirement fund" is the same difference as

"I'm confident in the advice im dispensing" and "I have no idea what I'm talking about".

Re: The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

#15

Post by qha »

everdev wrote: post #9
tomrod wrote: post #4

This is an open secret among techonomists and others in the arcane space of digital campaign measurement.[0][1- preprint] Digital advertising has a lot of smoke and mirrors. There is _some_ incrementality, but it seems oversold. [0] https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/130/4/1941/191... [1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2498290_cod...

And how much of the internet is powered by digital advertising? The web will look a lot different if that bubble bursts.

Going back to what it was 20 years ago? I'm sold!

Re: The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

#16

Post by T2_t2 »

samspenc wrote: post #11

But... here's the revenue and profits for Google and Facebook since 2017 (when the article appears to have been written), including analyst forecasts for the next year (* are analyst forecasts). 2017 2018* 2019* Google revenue $110.86B $136.47B $162.64B Facebook revenue $40.65B $55.36B $68.87B Apple revenue $265.60B $277.91B $289.25B While Apple's growth rate seems to be slowing down (due to iPhone sales slowing), bo…

The article is weird in that Google has the single greatest advantage - YouTube. Ctrl + F youtube and ... nothing.

TV ad revenue is going to start changing, but the value of video ads is massive. Google has not just YouTube, but the best video advertising platform for others to use.

If 15% of the US$70B on TV ads moves to YouTube, Google's growth should be sustainable. Multiply that by not just by the USA but Europe, Japan and Asia, and Google's growth looks fine.

If Google reaches the point they can buy the NBA TV rights for YouTube, heck, start small and buy the TV rights for a major Australian sporting league as a test run, or perhaps a single college conference like the ACC, and lets see how that article ages.

Re: The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

#17

Post by sologoub »

This article completely missed the forest for the trees - the battle for TV is not just a battle for content, it’s a battle for the delivery medium itself!

Think about it - how was TV delivered to you before? There are over the air broadcast, satellite, cable/settop, and what’s been called OTT. Except, more and more settop boxes are Rokus, Android TV-based and even some Apple TVs (Verizon 5G was offering those in test markets). So now you have a convergence of what was OTT/cord-cutter audience with the settop box. And who owns these platforms? Hint, it’s not the cable company.

So now the battle ground for those as dollars looks very different - why bother produce content when you can own the entire ecosystem where that content is delivered?

Amazon doing an amazing job with this - their FireTVs include ability to target based on your purchases and search/other activity within Amazon. That’s insanely powerful for brands and where brand dollars will definitely be spent. Not all of the dollars, but enough to matter.

Re: The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

#18

Post by o_nlogn_420 »

It's important to bring up that in the last year AT&T bought Time Warner, Direct TV, and other media companies, as well as As Tech pioneer AppNexus to try and merge Digital, OTT, and linear advertising all together in an effort to make up ground on Google and Facebook

Re: The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

#19

Post by o_nlogn_420 »

o_nlogn_420 wrote: post #18

It's important to bring up that in the last year AT&T bought Time Warner, Direct TV, and other media companies, as well as As Tech pioneer AppNexus to try and merge Digital, OTT, and linear advertising all together in an effort to make up ground on Google and Facebook

Ad Tech

Re: The math’s not pretty on digital advertising’s future revenues? (2017)

#20

Post by bryanrasmussen »

qha wrote: post #15
everdev wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how much of the internet is powered by digital advertising? The web will look a lot different if that bubble bursts.

Going back to what it was 20 years ago? I'm sold!

If the web went back to what it was 20 years ago that would be economically catastrophic, I mean if it happened like nearly instantly, if it happened over a space of 10-15 years OK.
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