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Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

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Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#51
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the first pop that I’ve felt is likely to be the last. A lot of people got burnt and are unwilling to jump back in.

How many people got burnt in the dotcom crash? In the financial crisis of 2007-2008? Black Monday of 1987? Did all of those people swear off investing in traditional equity instruments forever?

Why do you believe it is even remotely reasonable to compare "traditional equity instruments" with the perpetual scam that is cryptocurrencies?

A comparison that's way more appropriate is tulips, but even so tulips aren't used as tokens in money laundering scams.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#53
post #3

Why’s it still so darn expensive then?

By "it" do you mean Bitcoin?

Because it is designed to be deflationary?

Because its (energy cost) overhead is still sky high and likely to remain reflected in prices?

Because it is the "brand name" market with whatever caché remains to that name reflecting in prices?

Because sunk costs of existing investors want to keep the price high for as long as possible?

Those are just a few of the more obvious reasons. Not that I think it's any one thing here, it's probably some admixture of the above and other reasons.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#54

Bubbles only pop once. Bitcoin has spiked and crashed multiple times and it isn't unreasonable to expect it to do so again. Eventually, we might see the terminology change from "bubble" to "spike." It's already happening... Albeit slowly [0]. Can anyone think of a better term? [0] https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%22bitco...

A spike is something that happens and completes in a very short period of time, not drawn out over a year like this was. The terminology used pretty clearly follows the shape of the price charts — there’s no need to try to redefine terms to meet whatever point one is trying to make.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#55

As it has done multiple times previously. I anxiously await reading why this time is "different", just like all the previous times.

It's different because when the market cap of Bitcoins was less than one million, an 80% drop or pop did not mean much. One somewhat wealthy person could pump the price up at will.

When it hits a market cap of $334 billion, it becomes something more real. That is when Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger take a look at it and declare it something to avoid "like the plague" (Munger called Bitcoin "rat poison"). The greater market looks at it and it drops 80%.

Bitcoins are completely worthless. They have no value whatsoever. So the entirety of its current supposed market value of $61 billion (which was supposedly $334 billion a year ago), is closer to $0 than $61 billion.

Many overpriced dot-com stocks in 2000 or over-priced real estate in 2008 are still things which have value, even if the price went down for a while. Bitcoins have no value. I said so when the market cap was supposedly $240 billion ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15986475 ), I say so now, when the market cap is supposedly $61 billion, and I will say so until its graph starts hitting the $0 limit.

People say "it's valuable because it can be traded electronically", which is meaningless. Dot-com stocks could be traded electronically in 1999. The important thing is the value underlying what is traded. Bitcoin has none.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#56
post #37
post #3

Why’s it still so darn expensive then?

That’s a relative term, is like saying amazon is expensive st 1500 as opposed to 15 after did a 100:1 split. The point is no one knows how to price BitCoins and what to base the price on. At the current price point it could go up or down based on how happy people are with it, almost zero fundamentals to say what is worth.

> The point is no one knows how to price BitCoins and what to base the price on.

That's because bitcoins base price is a very round zero, and the only value associated with them was derived purely from speculation and prescribed prices used in money laundering operations.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a huge crypto currency skeptic and think the market is largely driven by massive amounts of fraud. That said -- eventually the price will drop to the point where the price is entirely driven by Bitcoin's natural customer base -- tax cheats, money launderers, drug dealers, etc, and will probably in fact over correct. Just for the sake of argument, let's said that 'natural price' is $500 or $600 a bitcoin -- it bo…

> Bitcoin's natural customer base -- tax cheats, money launderers, drug dealers, etc, and will probably in fact over correct. Funny I should read your comment about Bitcoin's use for criminal enterprise after I read about Goldman Sach's alleged hand in a multi-billion dollar fraud in Malaysia, or Deutche Bank's multi-billion dollar money laundering. Or going back a few years the Panama Papers and that entire undergro…

Every system involving money will attract criminals. But a new system that's much better for criminals and much worse for regular people will obviously attract more of the former than of the latter.

Still, I agree with vkou:

> Ransomware authors, heroin dealers and money launderers don't care how much BTC is worth - they only use it to cash out into USD. For them, the spot price is largely irrelevant.

That is, they'll still want to use Bitcoin, just not necessarily care about the spot price. The price is, I believe, driven up by gamblers.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#58
post #9

"Millennials, like generations before them, just got a painful lesson about speculation." and yet the first tweet is from McAfee... I know life has been hard to him but that is one very aged Millennial. Just add this bad article to the 300+ Bitcoin Obituaries, and the even more writings that try to point out the hard lesson learned by us idiot Millennials. A reminder that some Millennials are almost 40 now, we were t…

Cryptocoin speculation will likely be remembered closer to beanie babies or baseball cards as opposed to the dot com bubble etc. This was just the first time we saw this happen globally and with digital goods. Which, possibly coincidentally, happened to baby boomers right when they were around the same age/point in life as the millennial generation is now.

> Cryptocoin speculation will likely be remembered closer to beanie babies or baseball cards as opposed to the dot com bubble etc.

What exactly do you base this idea on? Are you involved in the technology at all? An economics major? Or do you just believe that Mr Noah Smith has the expertise to opine on such a situation.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#59
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the first pop that I’ve felt is likely to be the last. A lot of people got burnt and are unwilling to jump back in.

How many people got burnt in the dotcom crash? In the financial crisis of 2007-2008? Black Monday of 1987? Did all of those people swear off investing in traditional equity instruments forever?

After the 2007/2008 financial crisis—the worst financial crisis in the history of the US—the S&P500 dropped 54.1% from peak to trough. BTC is currently down over 80% since its peak.

Let's also make sure we understand that the S&P500 (or any stock ownership) is owning _business(es)_. Businesses make money, and they return that money to their owners. Bitcoin is purely speculative and depends on someone else buying it from you, presumably for more than you bought it for. Good luck finding another batch of suckers to fall for this after that last round.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#60
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again. EDIT: and I stand by my claim.

How? Which investors are going to believe the next bubble isn't a bubble?

With good timing, you can make money on a Bubble... the key is to get out before it bursts.
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