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Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

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Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#41
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again. EDIT: and I stand by my claim.

There's an important idea when it comes to investing: "past performance is not indicative of future results" So no, it's not a sure thing to "happen again" and leading people on like that is just not right. Stop that. Edit: I don't care what "claim" you stand by.

Hey buddy, if you feel that investing in cryptocurrencies is too risky, and it may harm you finances and future, you should really find safer investments to consider. I would talk to a professional about it, perhaps with your local bank.

Investments aside, you should really try to get your hands on some Bitcoin testnet coins and play around. Alternatively, something like Defcoin (http://defcoin-ng.org/) is intentionally worthless and great for experimenting. It's neat stuff and helps you appreciate the technology, as well as appreciate the currency shortcomings that require smart people to try and fix.

Many of us talk about how this has happened and will happened again not because we want you to invest, but because it's old news and articles like this are super boring. We have spent time working with the technology and community and see value in it. Value you may not see without wanting to go deeper, but value that is real and exciting.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#42
post #9

"Millennials, like generations before them, just got a painful lesson about speculation." and yet the first tweet is from McAfee... I know life has been hard to him but that is one very aged Millennial. Just add this bad article to the 300+ Bitcoin Obituaries, and the even more writings that try to point out the hard lesson learned by us idiot Millennials. A reminder that some Millennials are almost 40 now, we were t…

Cryptocoin speculation will likely be remembered closer to beanie babies or baseball cards as opposed to the dot com bubble etc.

This was just the first time we saw this happen globally and with digital goods. Which, possibly coincidentally, happened to baby boomers right when they were around the same age/point in life as the millennial generation is now.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#43
post #34

The Bitcoin hype cycle is driven by the mass media. Like this article, they pile on when BTC/USD exchange rate falls through the floor. During the period of stability that follows, they're nowhere to be found. After things have already turned around, they jostle with each other in an attempt to explain it all to Joe Sixpack. What the article fails to mention is that each "pop" has left the exchange rate higher than t…

>The Bitcoin hype cycle is driven by the mass media.

It’s much more nefarious...the boom and bust articles are essentially ordered by individuals/groups with the influence as part of the market manipulations. It’s not entirely unlike what people refer to as submarine articles, what’s lurking underneath these publishing’s are attempts to move the markets (the first wall street movie actually does a decent job of demonstrating this practice in the 80’s for the stock market).

These details will be exposed now that the SEC is beginning to target manipulations in these markets.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#44

Like the dot com bubble, and here we are today bigger, better and stronger. Think in terms of a public trading vehicle that enables anyone to raise capital in a global marketplace. Either real value gets translated to that vehicle or it does not.

"Everyone said Bob was an idiot for playing the lottery, but look at him now!"

" is a $10 Billion/year industry! If we could just capture 1%..."

Just because some other thing was successful doesn't mean your pet thing will be successful too.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#45
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? Which investors are going to believe the next bubble isn't a bubble?

I am a huge crypto currency skeptic and think the market is largely driven by massive amounts of fraud. That said -- eventually the price will drop to the point where the price is entirely driven by Bitcoin's natural customer base -- tax cheats, money launderers, drug dealers, etc, and will probably in fact over correct. Just for the sake of argument, let's said that 'natural price' is $500 or $600 a bitcoin -- it bo…

> Bitcoin's natural customer base -- tax cheats, money launderers, drug dealers, etc, and will probably in fact over correct.

Funny I should read your comment about Bitcoin's use for criminal enterprise after I read about Goldman Sach's alleged hand in a multi-billion dollar fraud in Malaysia, or Deutche Bank's multi-billion dollar money laundering. Or going back a few years the Panama Papers and that entire underground financial apparatus that drummed up exactly zero long term outrage or changes. I'll be more inclined to believe crypto is only for thieves when you convince me that the existing financial system isn't also completely rife with thievery and cheats.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Venture investment in Blockchain went up in 2018. The median deal size increased over $1.0mm and the number of deals is also up. [1] Once the ecosystem of complements matures, Bitcoin's utilization is expected to increase. [2] The price of Bitcoin is driven by speculation that utilization of Bitcoin creates value. [3] [1] https://medium.com/@PanteraCapital/market-update-pantera-blo... [2] Crossing the Chasm, 3rd Edit…

Private blockchain seems to be crossing the chasm at a much better place. Bitcoin has yet to offer something of value to the mass market. My money is pretty much digital already, and I'm not really down with my transactions being out in the public. Perhaps another crypto currency will meet the needs of the major market, though I have a hunch the current financial institutions will get there first.

I think Bitcoin would be a good fit for transferring value between large entities (governments, banks, etc.), where having public accountability would be especially valuable. Those entities could then exchange it with other lower-valued cryptocurrencies, fiat currencies, precious metals, seashells, etc. more suitable for day-to-day consumption by the general public.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#47

I would love an analysis on who is moving the market today. In the last month there have been three occurrences where the price of BTC jumped 10% in a single moment (followed by equal sell-offs hours/days later). Stranger still, all coins seem highly correlated. BTC goes up, all coins go up. I realize this behavior is not new and the market has been highly correlated since the beginning, ...but why?

In a stock market, some companies outperform others by being more valuable at one moment than another. The difference in value results from differences in the companies’ expected future cash flows.

Crypto coins, despite ICO promises, have not historically been revenue generating assets, so there is no future cash flows generated by them. Thus they can be considered fungible, retaining the same value despite their different symbols and nominal prices. With the level of distrust in the ecosystem, only “bad” news affects a given ICO, sending its value to zero. Neutral news, or good news, does not increase a given coin’s price, so they all settle around the same “value”, and all their “values” move together.

When anyone or their pet monkey can clone a Git repo, change some variables, and launch their own ICO with zbsolutely zero proprietary innovation, it is to be expected that all crypto coins will approach the same value.

(I put “value” in quotes because different coins have wildly different prices, being a function of some variables in the coin’s software determining e.g. how many were “issued”, but you have to ignore those prices and instead think about the underlying “value” represented by the coin. It’s really not much at all — perhaps only the sunk cost of electricity, but likely less than even that.)

I would also love an analysis on what is moving the market. It has to be more than Tether at this point.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#49
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again. EDIT: and I stand by my claim.

There's an important idea when it comes to investing: "past performance is not indicative of future results" So no, it's not a sure thing to "happen again" and leading people on like that is just not right. Stop that. Edit: I don't care what "claim" you stand by.

I'm more worried about the United States carrying a 21 trillion dollar debt load and what that will do to our economy more than I'm worried about "past performance not being indicative of future results" in the crypto markets.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#50
Bubbles only pop once. Bitcoin has spiked and crashed multiple times and it isn't unreasonable to expect it to do so again.

Eventually, we might see the terminology change from "bubble" to "spike." It's already happening... Albeit slowly [0]. Can anyone think of a better term?

[0] https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%22bitco...

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