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Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

city-journal.org

141–150 of 201 posts

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting to the city center, though, is often problematic. You either follow the existing railroad lines, which often have tight curves, or you build your own, which involves ripping out a long path through the already-existing city.

Or you tunnel. Expensive, but effective.

Exponentially expensive. Do I hear "seismically active terrain"?

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#142
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very impressive. But in just three minutes, I thought of an even better plan: put a $10M wormhole between LA and SF and have near instant travel. Wormholes don’t quite exist yet, but they seem close at hand.

There was a plane featured on HN this week with those exact specs.

...and last year, and the one before that, and the one before that. And each of them has, for some unfathomable reason, failed to materialize. But that's just a small matter of sky-piloting (in the original sense, i.e. "pie in the sky").

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#143
Why is this so hard? Other countries manage to construct high-speed rail and subway lines for a fraction what the US spends.

Maybe it was a bad idea to have everyone with a brain cram into med-school, law-school or b-school. There are other things that need doing.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#144
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The 1976 BART cost $10B in today's dollars to construct. If you were alive in 1976 would you have said it was a boondoggle and the project should have been killed? And what would BART cost today to build? $50 billion? Would it be worthwhile at that price? The problem is that costs for public infrastructure are ballooning much faster than inflation. That puts more pressure on public infrastructure projects to produc…

At $50B, yes. BART will exist in some form for at least a century. It is so hard to understand how valuable it is to make something that so many people use every day for that long but it is really valuable.

How valuable? $50 billion is enough to create a fund that pays out $2 billion annually in perpetuity, or about $15 for every BART ride. That’s not counting ongoing operations and maintenance. Does BART generate $15 in positive value per ride above and beyond ticket cost, relative to driving? I’m skeptical.

$3 I’ll believe. Which is why the constant factors kill us relative to Europe. It costs us 3-7x to build the same infrastructure as Europe. That pushes the required value per ride that needs to be generated to unrealistic levels.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, does China go through the courts for every segment, taking months or years (including determining fair value for compensation)? Dodger Stadium was built by razing a poor but cultural neighborhood and it is now considered to have been unethically done. But it was fast...

> Ah, does China go through the courts for every segment, taking months or years (including determining fair value for compensation)? Which sounds like a very inefficient court system to me.

I'm not sure I want speedy government takeover of land.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ah, does China go through the courts for every segment, taking months or years (including determining fair value for compensation)? Which sounds like a very inefficient court system to me.

I'm not sure I want speedy government takeover of land.

But I want faster trials. If it fails, it should fail fast. If it succeeds, it should succeed fast.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#147
post #37
post #17

While this article finds an issue with the way the Tejon Pass route was eliminated in favor of the Tehachapi Pass route, Tejon Pass route would skip a station in Lancaster/Palmdale, which would be a mistake. As the article acknowledges, these are rapidly growing exurbs that are refuge from the exorbitant land prices in the LA Basin. There is existing commuter rail service between there and Downtown LA, but a HSR is a…

What the heck is the train line doing near Fresno? Why is it not following I-5 and making zero stops in between the South Bay and LA?

Politics. Other responses on this thread are bending over backwards to explain it rationally, but honestly, the route was chosen to help keep state legislators from the rural parts of California from scuttling the deal.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber, Google Search Engine, Facebook, etc.

None of them have done anything on this scale, have they? They’re valuable because they don’t make investments like this. Their work is on a long lever so they have great margins over massive volume.

I’m pretty sure Uber has terrible margins :)

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#149
post #37
post #17

While this article finds an issue with the way the Tejon Pass route was eliminated in favor of the Tehachapi Pass route, Tejon Pass route would skip a station in Lancaster/Palmdale, which would be a mistake. As the article acknowledges, these are rapidly growing exurbs that are refuge from the exorbitant land prices in the LA Basin. There is existing commuter rail service between there and Downtown LA, but a HSR is a…

What the heck is the train line doing near Fresno? Why is it not following I-5 and making zero stops in between the South Bay and LA?

Fresno is a very important area in Central California. It was politically necessary to include them.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#150

The same thing happened in my country. Infrastructure like this always ends up about 5 times more expensive than originally thought. It doesn't really matter because there is always more money. Everyone just forgets about it and moves on. The US however is rapidly approaching a 1 trillion deficit. And if it wants to challenge China in manufacturing they need to rebuild the entire railroad system.

And if it wants to challenge China in manufacturing they need to rebuild the entire railroad system. Can you explain this point? The USA has a great cargo rail system that is efficient and integrated with other transportation systems.

American railroads are slow, old, neglected, unsafe and need to be shared with passenger trains.

Forty years of planned and extensive investment in infrastructure is how China lifted itself out of its misery. There was a time when the US did the same but something happened along the way.

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