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Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

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Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#31

This is about in line with the intelligence with which I see people pursuing their interactions with the natural world around us. “A bare patch of dirt?? Let’s pay someone to spray it with Round-Up! On all of our 480 locations”

It’s no dumber than let’s pay someone to dig up rare rocks, ship them halfway around the world, turn them into iPhones, and ship them back. Then let’s do that nonstop for 10 years and counting.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have inspired me, thank you. Thanks to your inspiration, I'll be planting as many milkweed plants as I think will grow here, in addition to my usual off-grid food planting. Little by little, I am nursing this overgrazed plot into a complex microcosm. The plot is in a major migration route and this is the first year I'll be actively be supporting Monarchs, other than planting my usual garden herbs. They seem to li…

Do some searching; there are many free or subsidized milkweed organizations. One example - https://monarchwatch.org/bring-back-the-monarchs/milkweed/fr...

Thanks, I'll check them out. In the meantime, I have nearly two acres fallow in a major migration route down the Rio Grande, about a quarter mile from the river. Every year, the butterfly migrations make my heart soar. I look forward to seeing them blossom a few years down the road.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#33

When I was a kid it was normal to see a few dead monarchs in the grill of dad's car. So was having a dozen house flys indoors. Nowadays I never see a monarch and I can leave the windows of the house open all day and not see a fly or any bugs for that matter.

Entomologists sometimes talk of the "windscreen phenomenon": peoples' sense that inspect splatter on windshields used to be a daily occurrence, but isn't any more.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#34
post #28

As I believe that Earth is the only life-bearing planet in our galaxy, if not the whole Universe, I'm extremely saddened with news like this of a near-extinction of yet another fascinating species. My only hope is that humanity will spread among the stars, dispersing what species remain to billions of new worlds, and that this might be our redemption for the unspeakable crimes we have committed against life...

If there are other planets with life on them then humanity could be more like a plague, choking out who knows how many ecosysyems on however many planets, much in the sane manner we've done here.

If humans cannot develop a healthy balance on this planet - which is unlikely, as drastic population and industrial reduction would be necessary and right quick - then we do not deserve to escape this planet. Humanity spreading to other planets at this point would be akin to a disease spreading.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do some searching; there are many free or subsidized milkweed organizations. One example - https://monarchwatch.org/bring-back-the-monarchs/milkweed/fr...

Thanks, I'll check them out. In the meantime, I have nearly two acres fallow in a major migration route down the Rio Grande, about a quarter mile from the river. Every year, the butterfly migrations make my heart soar. I look forward to seeing them blossom a few years down the road.

You are a good human, thank you.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#36
I'm no statistician, but the general trend seems to be upward for the last ten years. https://www.westernmonarchcount.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/...

Indeed, but for some out-of-whack numbers in 1997, the data looks fairly non-hysteria-inducing. I wonder if anything was happening in the counties where the count took place this year that might have affected the 'volunteer citizen scientist' participation? Hmm... I seem to remember something... what was it? Can't put my finger on it... I guess I'll just assume the world is ending and all insects are disappearing.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#37
post #36

I'm no statistician, but the general trend seems to be upward for the last ten years. https://www.westernmonarchcount.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/... Indeed, but for some out-of-whack numbers in 1997, the data looks fairly non-hysteria-inducing. I wonder if anything was happening in the counties where the count took place this year that might have affected the 'volunteer citizen scientist' participation? Hmm... I see…

The general trend that goes upward in your graph isn't the number of butterflies, but the number of 'sites monitored', i.e., places where they searched for butterflies.

In the time that monitored sites went from ~400,000 to ~1,400,000 the number of reported butterflies stayed roughly the same (~200,000), which should be grave cause for concern. The number of butterflies should be a linear correlation with the number of sites (unless all sites are chosen completely badly (like the inside of a factory), which is highly unlikely).

Then again, maybe 1997, the first year with 1,200,000 butterflies in ~500,000 sites was a strong outlier, and the numbers past 1999 are the 'reality' which is always hang 200,000. We'd need a time machine to check, or find old data, or find a way to count butterflies in the past (I guess they don't preserve well?)

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#39

This seems like part of the insect apocalypse story, and bee colony collapse disorder. All probably caused by overuse of insecticides. Note that if we don't find a way to correct this, it can be catastrophic on a timescale that makes the most alarmist climate change predictions seem like nothing. There must be some percentage of normal insect population density below which population of frogs and birds and what not w…

> All probably caused by overuse of insecticides.

I am not aware of any scientific publication showing a causal link. Let's be a little careful about this. By increasing crop yields and reducing deaths from insect borne diseases, insecticides have greatly reduced human suffering over the past century.

It's possible that insecticides are the cause, and if so, something has to be done, but such decisions need to be based on facts, on science, NOT on superstition and storytelling.

Re: Monarch butterfly populations in U.S. west are down an order of magnitude

#40
post #30
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Sheep Look Up by John Brunner. It was the scariest book I ever read.

Thanks. I read that too. But I'm pretty sure that this was a short story. I remember a description of venturing outside, with suit failure, and horrible stuff happening. However, it could have been a particularly memorable part of The Sheep Look Up .

Not the short story you're looking for, but The Hellstrom Chronicle is a 1971 pseudoscience mocumentary in the same vein: the struggle for survival between humans and insects. The conclusion is that insects will "win" due to their adaptability and ability to reproduce rapidly and humans' inability to organize due to excessive individualism.

The film is an odd duck: it's satirical and knowingly pseudoscience yet it won both the 1972 Academy Award and BAFTA Award for Best Documentary Feature.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hellstrom_Chronicle

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