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Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

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Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#151

Post by lmm »

mdnormy wrote: post #128
colmvp wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still irks me that something as rare and prestigious as the World Cup (and Olympic Hockey) can get decided by shootouts. I mean, I get it, football has a huge pitch and it'd probably be ridiculous to have guys exhausted, barely able to jog at the 150th minute. That said, one of the things I love about NHL playoff hockey is that without compromise, it's first goal wins overtime, where players are willing to do ever…

You're talking about Golden Goal. Soccer already have that from as long as I remember. Then it was "downgraded" to Silver Goal. Only both to be abolished later on. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_goal Wiki mentioned "The golden goal and silver goal were widely perceived as failed experiments" but I'm in the opposing camp. Golden Goal is freaking exciting as a spectator.

> Golden Goal is freaking exciting as a spectator.

It wasn't. Teams played super safe for extra time, just passing the ball in their own half and so on, because they felt like they'd have a more consistent chance in the penalty shootout.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#152

Post by lmm »

brownbat wrote: post #95

If one preferred the tie break conditions and sought to actively play for draws, how confidently could one force draws? Could you force draws consistently with someone 100 points stronger than you? 200?

You walk into the game with white aiming to win and black aiming to draw. If you played aiming for a draw as white, you could probably achieve it reliably against a player 200 or more ELO points ahead of you (or you could simply offer a draw at the earliest point that the rules permit - most of the time black will accept it). But if you can reliably achieve a draw as black, you're probably a better player (and certainly not a significantly worse player) than your opponent.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#153

Post by dagw »

TylerE wrote: post #134
dagw wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if you do it more like hockey does it.

That’s easy when your playing surface is 6x smaller.

There is plenty enough "down" time in football as it is that handling it shouldn't be a problem.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#154

Post by mlthoughts2018 »

BurningFrog wrote: post #104
mlthoughts2018 wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reply borders on incoherent to me. What is best effort if not choosing the course of action you deem gives you the best chance to win? Exhausting yourself and risking a blunder in the final classical match just because other people want to see the spectacle of it? That doesn’t seem like “effort” at all. Why do soccer players make back passes from offensive positions when tied 0-0? You think the coach gives a shi…

Yes, OP is talking about being respected by the chess world, not merely winning the title.

Exactly, the OP is mistakenly conflating “respected by the chess world” (which is not equal to the prevailing opinion of casual fans) with some confused idea of taking unnecessary risks that jeopardize a sound strategy.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#155

Post by newen »

gojomo wrote: post #40
scrooched_moose wrote: post #3

If anyone doesn't know, "Armageddon" is a type of chess game that guarantees a victor; it's not just a click-bait title. It's the last tiebreaker after a series of other Rapid and Blitz games. (all this is covered, just way at the end of the article) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_chess#Armageddon fivethirtyeight has been covering the tournament and their rough calculation gives it a 1:5000 chance of making it to…

It might spice-up the whole match to have this final-someone's-gotta-win tiebreaker before other tiebreaker matches, and then hold the result "in case it's needed". That'd be in the same spirit as this recommendation to have Soccer penalty-kick shootouts before overtime. https://slate.com/culture/2016/06/how-to-fix-the-penalty-sho... That is: you know who will win if all other tiebreakers draw, giving the side which…

That would be really awful. The winner of the tiebreak would have a huge incentive to go for a draw. In chess, it's a lot easier to go for a win or draw than try for a win at the Grandmaster level. This would only increase the likelihood of there being more draw matches. I mean, just look at the 12 games in the WCC. Magnus was clearly playing super safe in order to draw the match and go to the tiebreaker, where he has a huge advantage. He did the same thing in 2016.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#156

Post by SolarUpNote »

lisardo wrote: post #135
rhacker wrote: post #92

Is any of this being livestreamed anywhere? Specifically tomorrow's matches? 7am just seems so worth it after reading the exciting tie-breaks today.

I watched all streams listed in the comments, but I liked the most GM Jerry: https://www.twitch.tv/chessnetwork

ChessNetwork has my favorite analysis of the world championship games. His AlphaZero vs Stockfish series is also very good. https://www.youtube.com/user/ChessNetwork

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#157

Post by FeloniousHam »

colmvp wrote: post #66
gojomo wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It might spice-up the whole match to have this final-someone's-gotta-win tiebreaker before other tiebreaker matches, and then hold the result "in case it's needed". That'd be in the same spirit as this recommendation to have Soccer penalty-kick shootouts before overtime. https://slate.com/culture/2016/06/how-to-fix-the-penalty-sho... That is: you know who will win if all other tiebreakers draw, giving the side which…

It still irks me that something as rare and prestigious as the World Cup (and Olympic Hockey) can get decided by shootouts. I mean, I get it, football has a huge pitch and it'd probably be ridiculous to have guys exhausted, barely able to jog at the 150th minute. That said, one of the things I love about NHL playoff hockey is that without compromise, it's first goal wins overtime, where players are willing to do ever…

I hold to the even nuttier notion that soccer should abolish goalies entirely. Figure out a goal system that works without creating a one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-others position with as many rules as the entire rest of the game.

It would end "ripping nil-nil ties" and the ridiculous(!) separate game of tiddlywinks that is penalty shootouts (and nothing like the game you just spent 120 minutes playing). As a bonus you'd have higher scores and more usable stats.

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#158

Post by rtkwe »

cjbprime wrote: post #118
rtkwe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another is that Carlsen is very good at rapid (Carlsen 2880 vs Caruana 2789) and blitz (2939 vs 2767) formats compared Caruana so it makes sense to just take things to the tiebreakers where Carlsen has a significant advantage. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decisi...

> So it actually is a draw! (sort of) There's been a tournament of top engines playing out the position after the draw -- I think black (Carlsen) won 11 games and white won 2 games, with the rest draws. So this declaration of the lack of advantage just isn't true. > just take things to the tiebreakers where Carlsen has a significant advantage. But he had a significant advantage on the board, too. The question is the…

Just take a look at their relative rankings though. Caruana may have previously been blitz champion but his current blitz elo is ~170 points lower than Carlsen who iirc is the current blitz champion.

I'd like to see that same process repeated for all the other draws from the points of highest advantage and right before the draw too if we're going to be using it to evaluate the decision to draw. Not sure how closely the computer tournament reflects the actual progression we've seen from Carlsen and Caruana because if we just look at the pawn equivalent advantage game 12 wasn't the best game that's been fought to a draw in this series. (I know that doesn't take into account positional advantage but we don't have an easy number to sum up that over all the games).

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#159

Post by StanfordChess »

StanfordChess wrote: post #146
hardmath123 wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can folks at Stanford come by and watch live? (This is the first I've heard of the Stanford Chess Club…)

NM Jordy Mont-Reynaud will be live streaming from the CoHo at 7am. All Stanford students and affiliates are encouraged to join for commentary + banter! Normally we have a room reserved at Tresidder Old Union, but we got a bit of a late start on this so we're winging it for tomorrow. Slack group open to Stanford students/alums/faculty: https://stanfordchess.slack.com FB page for general public: https://www.facebook.co…

Sorry guys, wifi issues at CoHo prevented streaming. We are live now on Twitch: www.twitch.tv/stanfordchess

Re: Armageddon Looms over World Chess Champs after Carlsen’s Shocking Decision

#160

Post by StanfordChess »

rhacker wrote: post #92

Is any of this being livestreamed anywhere? Specifically tomorrow's matches? 7am just seems so worth it after reading the exciting tie-breaks today.

Stanford Chess team is streaming live now: http://twitch.tv/stanfordchess/

Currently streaming is head coach and former World Youth Champs silver medalist NM Jordy Mont-Reynaud. We may be joined later by our team captain, GM Daniel Naroditsky aka RebeccaHarris on LiChess aka "guy who is known to beat Magnus Carlsen at bullet"

Join us for commentary/questions/banter!

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