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The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

nytimes.com

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Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#71

Post by biophysboy »

nonbel wrote: post #27

Combining GWAS data with social science... sounds like a recipe for generating incorrect conclusions from noise to me. >"before the Human Genome Project had fully sequenced human DNA" The human genome is still not complete by any normal definition, they just redefined "complete" to mean "we did our best". It is like if someone turns in homework with only half the questions answered and argues they should get 100% sin…

I mean, for genetics in the early 2000’s, I would say that mapping 99% of the genome is a good definition of complete. Its not as fun for Bill Clinton to say “the genome is mostly complete, barring a small bunch of gaps comprised of repeating elements”.

And the gaps are actively being studied with stuff like nanopore sequencing. There’s a lot of hype surrounding next-gen sequencing in general.

Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#72

Post by conanbatt »

hirundo wrote: post #18

> All men are created equal. - U.S. Declaration of Independence The above statement is false. That's more clear than ever and geno-economics contributes to that clarity. If you live your life by this assumption you will get many important things wrong. Yet this clearly wrong statement, as applied to the operation of the rule of law, is also one of the most brilliant, important and useful concepts invented by civiliza…

Its not a statement of fact my man, it's a moral principle to organize government, law and order.

Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#74

Post by nyrulez »

asianthrowaway wrote: post #25
nyrulez wrote: post #8

Unless we have a complete picture of "success", which means: - How much of our behavior, habits, intelligence and success comes from the environment ? - How much of stuff like education levels, income levels come from birth, social and environmental factors? - How epigenetics shapes our life in a dynamic fashion? This field is pretty new, and we have just begin to understand it. - What is intelligence or success in t…

Points 1 2 and 4 are pretty well studied in academia concerning intelligence. Intelligence is defined as "g", and it's 60 to 80% heritable depending on the study (leaning towards 80%). More info for the curious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G_factor_(psychometrics)

The article is pretty interesting and I didn't read the whole thing. The correlations are positive but not 1, sometimes less than 0.5. So it shows genes are positively correlated, but very different than saying it's an exclusive factor? So the problem with this is that even if something is correlated at 10% (for arguments sake), it can have predictive power. But that doesn't mean it can become the sole basis. Thats the cognitive jump most folks are incapable of and these discussions often lead to very wrong outcomes. Indeed this bias has led to many horrific examples of discrimination.

Also the heritability seems to be put at 0.5, not a sure thing? So it obviously can be heritable, but that doesn't rule out that it is only heritable and no other avenues for it exist?

Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#75

Post by lacker »

nonbel wrote: post #27

Combining GWAS data with social science... sounds like a recipe for generating incorrect conclusions from noise to me. >"before the Human Genome Project had fully sequenced human DNA" The human genome is still not complete by any normal definition, they just redefined "complete" to mean "we did our best". It is like if someone turns in homework with only half the questions answered and argues they should get 100% sin…

This is true. But, the biggest problem with the Human Genome Project isn’t that the genome didn’t get totally sequenced. It’s that we still don’t understand what the vast majority of the genome does, even if we know the DNA sequence.

Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#76

Post by TheCoelacanth »

TangoTrotFox wrote: post #23
shubb wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in the UK, about 1000 years ago, the French invaded and took over, siezing control of the (basically German) population by replacing the top level of society. Suddely, the lords were French and the serfs were German. 1000 years later, you can predict someones socio-economic level by surname. French surnames do better than German ones. Surnames linked by blood to royalty do better than both. 1000 years. Lack of s…

Like many things here though there's a chicken and egg type scenario. Society mostly started with increasingly isolated tribal groups. Over time, and lots of killing, the most successful groups started to form into larger and larger groups. And the most successful individuals among these most successful groups were in turn on top of the top. At some point leadership implied what was an extremely high probability of a…

Only the male line died out. The Habsburg-Lorraine cadet branch took over and although they don't actually rule any countries since WWI, they are still quite wealthy and well-connected.

Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#77

Post by TheCoelacanth »

you_owe_me wrote: post #59
pault wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if you're joking or not (it did make me chuckle), but as dystopian as it sounds, I would prefer to live in a world where everyone is beautiful, since it would eliminate barriers for less attractive folks, and eliminate advantages for the more attractive ones. Of course, if we do ever learn how to change our physical appearance with genetics, the fashion industry will just change the definition of "beauti…

I was half-joking, but you do have a point. Nothing guarantees the standards of beauty will remain the same.

A lot of the factors have been very stable for a long time and are unlikely to change too much, e.g. symmetry, hair and skin in good condition, etc.

Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#78

Post by coldtea »

hirundo wrote: post #66
coldtea wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In order to believe that worth can be determined independent of a utility function, you need a standard of absolute worth Or you can just dispense with the notion of worth of a person as person altogether -- then you don't need to "determine" anything. That's what the "equal" part means in that sentence: don't try to determine". You can determine the skills of a surgeon, the education of a scholar, the speed of an…

> At least in (non-protestant) christianity people have absolute utility. Christianity allocates some souls to hell and others to heaven. Isn't that an expression of differential utility to God's purpose? > But you should not try to determine the worth of a person as person I agree that should usually be the case before the law, and in that context we should generally pretend that all people are created equal. But fo…

>Christianity allocates some souls to hell and others to heaven. Isn't that an expression of differential utility to God's purpose?

That's not all of Christianity. In the orthodox church for example, there's no hell even -- it's how a person perceives eternity without God, said distance from God based on their own predisposition (or tendency), out of their own free will. "Hell" in that sense is not some place, nor does it have actual fires and other BS folk iconography, it's a kind of regret:

> . . . those who find themselves in hell will be chastised by the scourge of love. How cruel and bitter this torment of love will be! For those who understand that they have sinned against love, undergo no greater suffering than those produced by the most fearful tortures. The sorrow which takes hold of the heart, which has sinned against love, is more piercing than any other pain. It is not right to say that the sinners in hell are deprived of the love of God . . . But love acts in two ways, as suffering of the reproved, and as joy in the blessed! (Saint Isaac of Syria, Mystic Treatises).

> According to the saints, the “fire” that will consume sinners at the coming of the Kingdom of God is the same “fire” that will shine with splendor in the saints. It is the “fire” of God’s love; the “fire” of God Himself who is Love. “For our God is a consuming fire” (Heb 12.29) who “dwells in unapproachable light” (1 Tim 6.16). For those who love God and who love all creation in Him, the “consuming fire” of God will be radiant bliss and unspeakable delight. For those who do not love God, and who do not love at all, this same “consuming fire” will be the cause of their “weeping” and their “gnashing of teeth.”

> Thus it is the Church’s spiritual teaching that God does not punish man by some material fire or physical torment. God simply reveals Himself in the risen Lord Jesus in such a glorious way that no man can fail to behold His glory. It is the presence of God’s splendid glory and love that is the scourge of those who reject its radiant power and light.

https://oca.org/orthodoxy/the-orthodox-faith/spirituality/th...

Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#79

Post by nonbel »

biophysboy wrote: post #71
nonbel wrote: post #27

Combining GWAS data with social science... sounds like a recipe for generating incorrect conclusions from noise to me. >"before the Human Genome Project had fully sequenced human DNA" The human genome is still not complete by any normal definition, they just redefined "complete" to mean "we did our best". It is like if someone turns in homework with only half the questions answered and argues they should get 100% sin…

I mean, for genetics in the early 2000’s, I would say that mapping 99% of the genome is a good definition of complete. Its not as fun for Bill Clinton to say “the genome is mostly complete, barring a small bunch of gaps comprised of repeating elements”. And the gaps are actively being studied with stuff like nanopore sequencing. There’s a lot of hype surrounding next-gen sequencing in general.

It is more like 85-90% complete. In fact no one knows for sure how much is missing.

Re: The ‘Geno-Economists’ Say DNA Can Predict Our Chances of Success

#80

Post by olliej »

robotrout wrote: post #60
olliej wrote: post #26

To an extent that’s true - genetics can detect your race and gender, both of which have a very strong correlation (although definitely not causation) with success. That said ever since we have been able to run genetic tests people have tried to use them to demonstrate that group A is “worse” than everyone else, or the group B is superior. Before that they tried to use phrenology. In every case they successfully came…

Those studied in this article were all white.

You’re aware that race doesn’t mean “white” vs “black” right?

While obviously these systems were used to justify treating non-white races as being fundamentally inferior, it was also used against other groups (“proving” that the Irish and scots were predisposed to drunkenness, etc).

The idea of racism being purely a skin color concept is relatively recent. Look at the historic treatment of the Irish, welsh, and Scottish in Britain over the last few millennia - or Italians up until the the mid to early 1900s. The treatment of people from Eastern Europe, the polish, today.

All of these races can be distinguished genetically - or even through external features.

Similar discrimination occurs other countries among people with the same skin colour- I’m sure countries like China and Japan could point to “objective” measures like genetics that can be not related to negative aspects of groups they discriminate against.

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