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What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

economist.com

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Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#71

Post by CPLX »

jstanley wrote: post #57
yongjik wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would have made the oddest pro-Brexit argument ever. "Sure it will personally suck for you the British farmer, but think about the benefit to the avocado farmers in Chile. Brexit for Chile!"

It's not just the avocado farmers in Chile, it's also the avocado purchasers in the UK.

If the society you live in today decided to expropriate all of the money and resources owned by a randomly selected 5% of the population, so that 5% of the population was instantly destitute, but then distributed those resources evenly to everyone else, would you consider that society better off, worse off, or pretty much the same as the day before that happened?

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#72

Post by jimnotgym »

jstanley wrote: post #57
yongjik wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would have made the oddest pro-Brexit argument ever. "Sure it will personally suck for you the British farmer, but think about the benefit to the avocado farmers in Chile. Brexit for Chile!"

It's not just the avocado farmers in Chile, it's also the avocado purchasers in the UK.

If they come from Chile then there is likely no tariff into the EU due to the FTA. Perhaps you could drop the FUD?

https://metro.co.uk/2018/09/25/brexit-mps-tweet-about-foreig...

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#73

Post by simonh »

nicky0 wrote: post #12
jstanley wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you propose? A razor thin minority in a public vote 2 years ago decide the UK's policy forever?

The referendum should have never have been specified with a simple majority rule.

There should never have been a referendum, without a party in power having a policy to leave.

The big problem we have is that Brexit was not the policy of any political party, so who is responsible for implementing it? May is our legal, rightful Prime Minister selected by due process, but she was a remainer.

The only right way to do this would be for the people to elect a party with implementing brexit as policy, and have a referendum to ratify the decision. That’s how we got in and that’s how we should have left. What we got instead was a muddled tangle of lack of responsibility, recrimination and disagreement of what brexit even is.

To this day nobody on the brexit side has ever put forward a clear, comprehensive plan for how to implement brexit. All we get is platitudes about a European Singapore, vague half-ideas like magical goods tracking systems that don’t exist, and red lines of what they won’t accept. No real credible plan of how to actually do it, because it’s never actually been anybody’s policy. May’s is the only plan on the table. Everybody else won’t shut up, but won’t put up either.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#74

Post by Findeton »

jimnotgym wrote: post #41
Findeton wrote: post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

They may be voting no to the Brexit deal purely because they don't agree with it. But you are painting this as a binary situation of 'The Deal' vs No deal. There is a third option, withdrawing notice to leave. Parliament can choose to remain without any kind of referendum. In fact there was a case heard by the ECJ today to clarify this very fact. The UK's option to remain was undisputed, and the remaining legal argum…

That's a technical possibility. But in reality, MPs just don't have the incentives to do that. They just wouldn't get elected next time. It's unthinkable that the UK would choose to remain without a referendum. And the thing is that as of now, a referendum (and I'm not even saying what should be asked there) is also not a politically viable option.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#75

Post by tim333 »

CPLX wrote: post #7
clarkmoody wrote: post #2

Some Brexiteers favour a radical response: get rid of all tariffs on imports, as Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore have done. Extravagant assumptions about the benefits of this explain why some pro-Brexit economists see no deal as much less damaging than most of their colleagues. But tariff abolition would have huge effects on agriculture and some types of manufacturing. The government has no plans for such an extirpati…

How's the farming community doing in Hong Kong, Macao, and Singapore?

There's not much farming there due to not much farmland in those places.

A more useful example would be New Zealand:

> “You had a system dictated by government programs that was thrown out the window overnight,” Hausman adds in a recent interview with The Daily Signal. “But the farmers kind of reinvented themselves and now New Zealand is a powerhouse when it comes to agricultural production on the world stage.” https://www.dailysignal.com/2016/09/22/what-happened-when-ne...

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#76

Post by jstanley »

jimnotgym wrote: post #72
jstanley wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just the avocado farmers in Chile, it's also the avocado purchasers in the UK.

If they come from Chile then there is likely no tariff into the EU due to the FTA. Perhaps you could drop the FUD? https://metro.co.uk/2018/09/25/brexit-mps-tweet-about-foreig...

I didn't bring up Chile, my parent did. Replace "Chile" in our comments with "arbitrary country X" if you prefer.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#77

Post by Findeton »

simonh wrote: post #68
Findeton wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK parliament voting system, you vote for the individual, not the party list. Thus MPs won't do anything that makes them lose votes. Voting for a bad deal (even though it's the best deal you'll get) will make you lose votes in the next election, even more so if the deal is actually approved. It's very easy to criticize from the fences when that gets you more votes. That's basically the reason why Boris Johnson…

I think that’s why Nigel Farage quit politics immediately. No way that /edit/ guy /end edit/ is going to risk taking any responsibility for the consequences.

The sad take away from this, for me, is that even though politicians may seem stupid, they are mostly acting stupid because that's what gets you elected. They are not stupid, just ruthless.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#78

Post by jstanley »

jimnotgym wrote: post #69
jstanley wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably the only way the ECJ can enforce any of its rulings is by some sort of punishment if you don't agree with what they suggest?

The ECJ is ruling on whether the EU members can stop the UK withdrawing it's notice. The EU members will of course be bound by this, if Britain withdraws it's notice to leave it will still be in the EU so of course it will be bound. You have a habit of jumping on these EU threads j? It feels like trolling to me.

The reason I comment a lot in these threads is because lots of other people post things in these threads that appear (to me) obviously wrong. There seems to be this notion that governments are what makes the world go round, and people going about their daily lives do so only by the governments' blessings. I don't believe that is the way the world works, or is even a useful way to model how the world works. I believe the world works by individuals going about their daily business, and government in practice tends to just get in the way, slow things down, and make things more expensive. I believe that a reduction of government (by leaving the EU, abolishing tariffs, abolishing immigration restrictions, etc.) is obviously the right thing to do.

I am not trolling.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#79

Post by ralfn »

mrtksn wrote: post #59
Spivak wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> wherever is most efficient This is only true when all actors play by the same rules. Without this requirement the most efficient places to operate are where there are the fewest labor and environmental protections. I would 100% be in favor of eliminating tariffs to countries that meet the same standards but its silly to say that we're better off exploiting not-quite-slave labor.

>I would 100% be in favor of eliminating tariffs to countries that meet the same standards That’s the current situation with the EU. Turns out the UK is not happy with that.

The British upper class wants the freedom to abuse their lower class more and they sold this nonsense to them with a spiel about sovereignty.

Thank God the Brits have such a taste for irony. They'll be feasting on this one for the better part of a decade.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#80

Post by OscarCunningham »

tomp wrote: post #39
jstanley wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imposing tariffs on imports is classic protectionism - are you actually arguing that that is a net benefit? Of course the protected industries benefit from protectionism, the argument against protectionism is that everyone else loses. There is no reason that a transaction with a counterparty in Shanghai should incur any more taxes than an equivalent transaction with a counterparty in Manchester.

> are you actually arguing that that is a net benefit? Depends on what you define as net benefit... Self-sufficiency, especially regarding basic supplies like food, is hugely important for any independent nation. Personally, tariffs on/protectionism of food industry are what I support the most. Broader picture, net benefit doesn't mean just economic benefit. I support Trump's tariffs on China and hope EU would do the…

Only if the tariffs were clearly linked to polluting and tax-evading. Otherwise they provide no incentive to stop. I don't believe Trump has linked his tariffs to pollution or tax-evasion. He's been talking about China's industrial subsidies, monetary policy and intellectual property theft.

Simply sanctioning bad countries isn't good in itself, unless it forces them to become better.

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