What to expect from a no-deal Brexit • Hacker News Board

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#41

Post by jimnotgym » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:05 PM UTC

Findeton wrote: post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

They may be voting no to the Brexit deal purely because they don't agree with it.

But you are painting this as a binary situation of 'The Deal' vs No deal. There is a third option, withdrawing notice to leave.

Parliament can choose to remain without any kind of referendum. In fact there was a case heard by the ECJ today to clarify this very fact. The UK's option to remain was undisputed, and the remaining legal arguments are simply over whether the remaining 27 states have to agree or not. The ruling is due at a later date.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#42

Post by Spivak » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:05 PM UTC

jstanley wrote: post #20

kennywinker wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Free trade and corporate welfare are not opposites. By allowing free trade you allow companies to operate wherever the operating cost is lowest, while still selling to the residents of your region. Incentivizing local production (by tarriffing imports) means business operate locally, and importantly, pay taxes locally. You can call that corporate welfare, but for many cases I think that misses the mark.

By allowing free trade you allow companies to operate wherever is most efficient. This reduces costs, and therefore reduces prices (through competition). Everybody is a winner (apart from the previously-protected businesses who now have to compete on a level playing field).

> wherever is most efficient

This is only true when all actors play by the same rules. Without this requirement the most efficient places to operate are where there are the fewest labor and environmental protections. I would 100% be in favor of eliminating tariffs to countries that meet the same standards but its silly to say that we're better off exploiting not-quite-slave labor.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#43

Post by rabidrat » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:05 PM UTC

Spivak wrote: post #21

nicky0 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently, yes.

How else do you want democracy to work? The people agreed on a system of rules order to decide between two directions and a decision was made. If the government can just decide to not carry out the will of the people (however thin the margins are) then why have a vote at all?

Perhaps more than a simple majority? Perhaps a majority of the eligible voting population? What is called a "razor-thin majority" is actually a plurality. And I don't think democratic decisions should be made by plurality.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#44

Post by tomp » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:06 PM UTC

tdb7893 wrote: post #34

Spivak wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How else do you want democracy to work? The people agreed on a system of rules order to decide between two directions and a decision was made. If the government can just decide to not carry out the will of the people (however thin the margins are) then why have a vote at all?

I wonder if for things like joining our leaving the EU we should make them get at least 60ish percent of the vote. Simple majorities have a tendency to ping-pong back and forth so it doesn't seem optional for huge systemic changes.

This is a good idea in theory, but the bigger problem is that the UK never voted for the EU either.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#45

Post by Zigurd » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:06 PM UTC

jdlyga wrote: post #3

So, why do it? Should a razor thin majority in a public vote 2 years ago decide the UK's policy forever?

The real problem is not majoritarianism, or democracy. The problem is that the referendum should have been framed as "Start exit negotiations."

If it's not framed that way, it amounts to buying the outcome of a risky multi-year process with a lot of downside risk and tens of billions in costs sight unseen.

It is not antidemocratic to have a referendum on "Were the negotiations a success?"

Nor does it make sense that if the UK parliament rejects the exit deal that "no deal Brexit" is the only outcome. The UK can withdraw the notification they will exit and remain and continue to negotiate. It adds some lead-time to an eventual exit if that ever makes sense and can be negotiated before the earliest date the UK can leave. But, in no way is it antidemocratic.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#46

Post by tomp » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:07 PM UTC

paganel wrote: post #36

clarkmoody wrote: post #2

Some Brexiteers favour a radical response: get rid of all tariffs on imports, as Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore have done. Extravagant assumptions about the benefits of this explain why some pro-Brexit economists see no deal as much less damaging than most of their colleagues. But tariff abolition would have huge effects on agriculture and some types of manufacturing. The government has no plans for such an extirpati…

It’s incredible how some people in the UK (a country of 60+ million people) are ready to compare themselves to mere city states like HK or Singapore. I for one view at as border-line criminal.

Can you explain your reasoning?

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#47

Post by Spivak » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:07 PM UTC

tdb7893 wrote: post #34

Spivak wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How else do you want democracy to work? The people agreed on a system of rules order to decide between two directions and a decision was made. If the government can just decide to not carry out the will of the people (however thin the margins are) then why have a vote at all?

I wonder if for things like joining our leaving the EU we should make them get at least 60ish percent of the vote. Simple majorities have a tendency to ping-pong back and forth so it doesn't seem optional for huge systemic changes.

I absolutely agree but that's the kind of decision that has to be made a priori. Moving the goalposts after the results are in isn't very democratic.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#48

Post by jstanley » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:07 PM UTC

jimnotgym wrote: post #41

Findeton wrote: post #5

Well, I'm kind of expecting that the no-deal scenario will actually happen. Then a big economic crisis will follow, making it palatable for politicians to actually endorse a new referendum. I'm not saying what the question in such referendum would be, though. And actually, this is the reason why some remainers are voting no to the brexit deal, and it's not even a secret.

They may be voting no to the Brexit deal purely because they don't agree with it. But you are painting this as a binary situation of 'The Deal' vs No deal. There is a third option, withdrawing notice to leave. Parliament can choose to remain without any kind of referendum. In fact there was a case heard by the ECJ today to clarify this very fact. The UK's option to remain was undisputed, and the remaining legal argum…

Fancy that. Group of people who don't want a decision to go through got together and decided that there won't be any punishment if the decision doesn't go through.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#49

Post by tomp » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:08 PM UTC

Zigurd wrote: post #45

jdlyga wrote: post #3

So, why do it? Should a razor thin majority in a public vote 2 years ago decide the UK's policy forever?

The real problem is not majoritarianism, or democracy. The problem is that the referendum should have been framed as "Start exit negotiations." If it's not framed that way, it amounts to buying the outcome of a risky multi-year process with a lot of downside risk and tens of billions in costs sight unseen. It is not antidemocratic to have a referendum on "Were the negotiations a success?" Nor does it make sense that…

> The UK can withdraw the notification they will exit and remain and continue to negotiate.

Some EU leaders have eliminated that as an option.

Re: What to expect from a no-deal Brexit

#50

Post by yongjik » Tue, Nov 27, 2018, 9:08 PM UTC

jstanley wrote: post #9

CPLX wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How's the farming community doing in Hong Kong, Macao, and Singapore?

Imposing tariffs on imports is classic protectionism - are you actually arguing that that is a net benefit? Of course the protected industries benefit from protectionism, the argument against protectionism is that everyone else loses. There is no reason that a transaction with a counterparty in Shanghai should incur any more taxes than an equivalent transaction with a counterparty in Manchester.

This would have made the oddest pro-Brexit argument ever.

"Sure it will personally suck for you the British farmer, but think about the benefit to the avocado farmers in Chile. Brexit for Chile!"