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A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

bbc.com

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Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#41

Post by varjag »

sacado2 wrote: post #32
adventured wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). In fact, France has routinely urged Trump and the US to remain engaged in the Syria conflict. "Emmanuel Macron to urge Donald Trump to keep US in Syria during White House talks" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/23/emmanuel-macron-...

Not sure why you've been downvoted there. Regarding Syria, the same thing happened as with Iraq. In Iraq, the US and UK said "Saddam has mass destruction weapons, we must attack him", and the French said "okay, just show us the proof, and we'll be on your side". USA said they had a proof but didn't want to show it. France did not support the attack. In Syria, USA, UK and France said "Bachar use chemical weapons on hi…

OPCW has provided the proof of multiple incidents perpetrated by Syrian government. That you decide to support Assad is a matter of conscience, not absence of facts.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#42

Post by profalseidol »

arethuza wrote: post #20
adventured wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The highest level politicians that took us into Iraq knew there were no WMD. They merely needed a good enough excuse to do it. We've got four star general - US Presidential candidate, and NATO Supreme Allied Commander right before 9/11 - Wesley Clark admitting it in public on YouTube. I'll never understand why the most important policy admission of the last 30 years is intentionally ignored in all discussion of what…

It's the politician's syllogism: - We must do something - This is something - Therefore, we must do this. After 9/11 the US had to do something , Afghanistan wasn't enough, so do Iraq.

They already did something before 9/11 and I think that was a retaliation against an attack to a US embassy. And list goes on.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#43

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

varjag wrote: post #22
michaelt wrote: post #13

But because their masters in Moscow wanted to hear there was potential for a first-strike, to please their bosses, that’s what the spies delivered. “These people were close to the West, they lived in the West and knew there were no plans for a first strike but they reported what they were told to report,” Jones explains. [...] It was a dangerously vicious circle. “It’s a failure of the Soviet system,” says Jones, “So…

No, most of the Western governments don't do that. The reason "coalition of the willing" was so thin is that aside the US and the UK few bought that. France have threatened veto in the UN, so it was not put to the vote… that's also how the whole "freedom fries" idiocy took off. And the rest of continental Europe was immensely sceptical.

> And the rest of continental Europe was immensely sceptical.

You mean: sat by and did nothing.

Everyone's wailing about US Saudi relations with regard to Khashoggi. Was anyone suggesting trade relations with the US should be dropped due to their war on Iraq, which, by all accounts, killed more than one person.

Coalition of the complicit.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#44

Post by Steve44 »

dewyatt wrote: post #2

Deutschland 83 is a fantastic show based on these events.

I really enjoyed that too. I was a teenager then and although in the UK I was very aware of the military and world situation. That series was a very good reminder of what the world felt like then.

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#45

Post by sacado2 »

varjag wrote: post #41
sacado2 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure why you've been downvoted there. Regarding Syria, the same thing happened as with Iraq. In Iraq, the US and UK said "Saddam has mass destruction weapons, we must attack him", and the French said "okay, just show us the proof, and we'll be on your side". USA said they had a proof but didn't want to show it. France did not support the attack. In Syria, USA, UK and France said "Bachar use chemical weapons on hi…

OPCW has provided the proof of multiple incidents perpetrated by Syrian government. That you decide to support Assad is a matter of conscience, not absence of facts.

First, let's not call each other names. I certaninly don't support Assad, just as the fact you (or I) don't support Assad certainly doesn't mean you (or I) support ISIS. Our ennemies' ennemies are not always our friends.

Now, I just reported the fact that France said back then "we have evidence", but didn't show it at that time. Then they published an official report [1] a few days later, basically saying "oh, we have good reasons to think it's true, with a high degree of confidence" (haut degré de confiance). Basically, that document says

1- there was probably a chemical attack a few days ago 2- it would be strategically a good idea for Assad to use chemical weapons. 3- we have not heard about rebels acquiring chemical weapons. 4- therefore, Assad is responsible.

That's what happened at that time. Now, if you have a document from April 2018 giving factual proofs, and not just mentioning a "high degree of confidence", I'd be glad to revise my knowledge of the situation.

[1] https://www.defense.gouv.fr/layout/set/popup/base-de-medias/... [pdf][French]

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#46

Post by lmm »

adventured wrote: post #25
varjag wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, most of the Western governments don't do that. The reason "coalition of the willing" was so thin is that aside the US and the UK few bought that. France have threatened veto in the UN, so it was not put to the vote… that's also how the whole "freedom fries" idiocy took off. And the rest of continental Europe was immensely sceptical.

France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad). In fact, France has routinely urged Trump and the US to remain engaged in the Syria conflict. "Emmanuel Macron to urge Donald Trump to keep US in Syria during White House talks" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/23/emmanuel-macron-...

> France had no problem supporting the conflicts in Libya and Syria that sought to accomplish similar outcomes as in Iraq (remove & replace Gaddafi and al-Assad).

And if the US had argued for invading Iraq on that basis, maybe we'd've supported it. But of course we're going to oppose an invasion when its proponents are basing their arguments on a blatant lie like the 45 minute claim.

(If the US/UK thought there was a good case for invasion on genuine grounds, why did they feel the need to lie?)

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#47

Post by starbeast »

jmnicolas wrote: post #15
krig wrote: post #12

I find calling the potential deployment of nuclear missiles at this point ”world war three” slightly misleading. A war has a beginning and an end. There is no end other than the end of the world as we know it on the other side of such strikes. As the exercise concluded in the article, ”Most of the world was destroyed. Billions were dead. Civilisation ended.”

Sadly a nuclear war is "highly" survivable as long as you know to duck and cover once you see the flash. I say "sadly" because it's not as big a deterrent as we thought. You can read how to avoid 90% of the deaths here : http://www.ki4u.com/goodnews.htm

This all seems very similar to the public information services from Raymond Briggs rather depressing sequel to "The Snowman", "When The Wind Blows".

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#48

Post by lmm »

pluma wrote: post #26
trhway wrote: post #7

We still have the chance - minor Ukraine/Russia navy conflict yesterday so far resulted in nation wide martial law in Ukraine triggered on today. I'd not put it past Putin to not let the crisis go waste and for example "solve" the Ukraine/Russia Azov sea issues by making the Azov sea outright into an internal Russian sea which would naturally raise the tensions with the NATO/Europe/US and others. (Also, given the ext…

I don't see how an incursion on Ukraine would result in a war with NATO. Ukraine's problem is precisely that it's a formerly neutral party and not part of NATO. In fact, from a Russian POV the reason for the annexation of the Crimean peninsula were fears fueled by Ukraine moving closer to NATO and the EU, violating its neutrality and jeopardising Russian military operations within Ukraine. I'm not justifying the anne…

What about the Budapest Memorandum?

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#49

Post by mousecorkkey »

sacado2 wrote: post #35
varjag wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Libya and Syria conflicts were started by their respective dictators massacring people.

Khaddaffi (not sure about spelling) was a friend of France just a few years before he got killed. He was even invited to put his tent in the gardens of the Élysée by newly elected president Sarkozy, four years before. And back then, Khaddaffi was not especially a benevolent dictator. And there are tons of counter examples. For example, Eritrea is recognized as one of the worst dictatorship in the world, and we have n…

Are you referring to Gaddafi?

Re: A military exercise staged 35 years ago almost triggered World War Three

#50

Post by opless »

sacado2 wrote: post #35
varjag wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Libya and Syria conflicts were started by their respective dictators massacring people.

Khaddaffi (not sure about spelling) was a friend of France just a few years before he got killed. He was even invited to put his tent in the gardens of the Élysée by newly elected president Sarkozy, four years before. And back then, Khaddaffi was not especially a benevolent dictator. And there are tons of counter examples. For example, Eritrea is recognized as one of the worst dictatorship in the world, and we have n…

He did weed out people he considered his enemies, but he did give people free education, a banking system that was more client friendly (in terms of loans etc) and I understand free utilities.

I was of the understanding that the invasion was to increase France's political clout in North Africa, to avoid Ghaddafi's plan of unifying Africa under a gold standard (Gold Dinar) and most importantly to sell oil under the aforementioned currency.

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