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The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

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Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#121

Post by 01100011 »

gnicholas wrote: post #61

Things have also cooled off in the Palo Alto area. I've seen houses dropped by $400k in the last few months, typically from nearly $2.5M to a bit under $2M. At first I thought it was just to get a bidding war started, but the homes then sold for not much over the lowered price. This is still a far cry from "affordable", but it's a change of pace from the last six years.

Valley real estate is insane. The houses are old, tiny and probably full of health hazards(lead, asbestos). The infrastructure is crap. The whole area is earthquake prone. You'd think the smart folks in the area would stay out of the market...but after looking at rentals over the last month I'm starting to understand why people still buy. I think it's stupid...but I understand their perspective.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#122

Post by jarjarbanqs »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #106
bradleyjg wrote: post #11

The post housing crash housing boom was almost entirely the result of the federal government--which has made, guaranteed, or bought significantly more than half the residential mortgages since 2008--deciding there should be a housing boom. If it is indeed coming to an end it is because the federal government collectively has decided not to double down and keep the party going. This isn't the weather or even the price…

The government responded to the crisis with fiscal austerity and massive levels of QE. If you wanted to enrich the FIRE sector and screw working class people that would be exactly how to do it. If you look at inflation by sector instead of focusing on nominal and ignoring everything else, you find asset bubbles on stocks, bonds, and real estate, no wage growth and low rates of nominal inflation.

> fiscal austerity

=> lets tighten our belts! decease debt, decrease risk

> massive levels of QE.

=> print more money, lend it out at 0%

their actions are directly opposite their statements.

they are trying to kick the can down the road as long as possible while enriching themselves and their friends

problem is the can is picking up more dirt. you can use a bigger shoe but and eventually your foot will break.

they know this as well so the plan is pump and dump.

significant "real" wealth has not been created since 2008. feel free to point out where.. I'll wait

by boosting the market and skimming the top continuously you'll be safe from the pop. paid for by the pension plans of everyday joe.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#123

Post by austincheney »

pdonis wrote: post #103
austincheney wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair you are both right. The board of directors is appointed by government officials and the bank was established by the Federal Reserve Act. The bank is also privately owned and not by any government. I learned this because a technology director at the Dallas bank works with me in our side job.

> The bank is also privately owned and not by any government. Each of the Federal Reserve banks is structured on paper as a private corporation, yes. But the US government effectively controls what they do; the private corporations do not exercise any of the normal functions of ownership that other private corporations do.

Have you ever worked for the federal government? My part time job is military. The government in that case really controls what we do. At the federal reserve they aren't regulated as a federal employer or a federal agency.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#124

Post by thedailymail »

sokoloff wrote: post #112
Latteland wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are lucky you can get money from renting. If you were unlucky and had a house in the rust belt and jobs disappeared then few people could buy or rent your house. So people can get trapped. At least you can expunge your mortgage debt with bankruptcy. Not being able to expunge education debt is what's holding our economy down.

Not being able to expunge education debt is what makes education lending possible. Otherwise, there’d be a line to file strategic bankruptcy after the last tuition payment was due...

Why would anyone file for bankruptcy right before paying their last tuition payment?

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#125

Post by laurencerowe »

prawn wrote: post #109
froindt wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The buyer's agent is supposed to act in the best interest of the buyer. It's tough to say that's always the case when the buyer paying a bit more rather than walking away would actually help the buyer's agent earn more. Normally there are pre-negotiated commission rates the buyer's agent would receive. To ensure you've got someone who is truly on your side as the buyer, maybe it'd make sense for your agent to be paid…

Why would you even have a buyer's agent? In Australia, the seller has an agent (often on commission) to arrange ads and conduct opens. Buyers visit and then make an offer if they wish. A buyer's agent would be quite rare - maybe only for very, very expensive properties. Does the buyer's agent in the US handle the role of a conveyancer in sorting paperwork of the final sale?

US estate agent fees are absurd too. Standard seems to be 5-6% split between the buyer’s and seller’s agents (both paid by seller) - almost $100K on the median San Francisco home.

In UK only seller has an agent and fees are 1-2%.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#126

Post by tehlike »

gnicholas wrote: post #111
modeless wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've toured a couple of houses in Palo Alto in the past month. The agents were practically begging us to make an offer below asking price. I thought it was really weird. Of course, even then the prices would still be about double what I would consider reasonable.

I'm curious to see how much things soften after people do their 2018 taxes next year and realize the magnitude of the impact of not being able to deduct property taxes anymore. (In CA, the $10k cap is eaten up by state income taxes, at least for anyone who has enough money to purchase a home.)

It is a mix. Housing prices have been going up by about 20% for a while except for this year. 1% interest rate increase is more or less equal to price going up 20% in terms of monthly payment. Add lack of salt, and it falls behind.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#128

Post by closeparen »

ams6110 wrote: post #98
gizmo686 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How expensive is Ethernet to all rooms? That decision strikes me as a no brainer for any newly built house. Even if no one actually wants Ethernet in all rooms, it guarantees that Ethernet is present in the particular room(s) that the eventual buyer will want it in. And it will still be present in the particular room(s) that the next buyer will want it in. In contrast, if a room is missing Ethernet, it would be far m…

In 5 years, Ethernet outlets in homes will be like telephone outlets are today: a relic of a prior generation. I don't know anyone under age 50 who still has a landline phone. The next generation of home buyers won't know what an Ethernet cable is. Everything will be wireless. Apple doesn't even have Ethernet ports on their laptops anymore.

In the long term, it seems decently likely that the (unlicensed) spectrum will be too crowded for reliable wireless service of any kind. Urbanization and electronic communication are both on the rise; the usable bandwidth that physics has to offer isn't unlimited.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#129

Post by [deleted] »

SomewhatLikely wrote: post #108
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #13

Housing prices go up: “it’s becoming unaffordable!” Housing prices go down: “it’s crashing!” Housing prices stay stable: “our leaders need to revitalise downtown!”

Housing prices go down: with these interest rates it's becoming even more unaffordable!

[deleted]

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#130

Post by bko »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #106
bradleyjg wrote: post #11

The post housing crash housing boom was almost entirely the result of the federal government--which has made, guaranteed, or bought significantly more than half the residential mortgages since 2008--deciding there should be a housing boom. If it is indeed coming to an end it is because the federal government collectively has decided not to double down and keep the party going. This isn't the weather or even the price…

The government responded to the crisis with fiscal austerity and massive levels of QE. If you wanted to enrich the FIRE sector and screw working class people that would be exactly how to do it. If you look at inflation by sector instead of focusing on nominal and ignoring everything else, you find asset bubbles on stocks, bonds, and real estate, no wage growth and low rates of nominal inflation.

Austerity: difficult economic conditions created by government measures to reduce public expenditure.

> Federal Spending was increasing modestly, year on year, in the mid 2000s. But it jumped by $700 billion a year in the Great Recession to bail out the banks and provide “stimulus.” Since the recession federal spending held steady at about $3.6 trillion per year for a few years, before resuming growth in 2015. Viewed from a GDP perspective, federal spending was steady at about 19 percent GDP in the mid 2000s and then jumped, in the Great Recession to almost 25 percent GDP. But in the subsequent economic recovery federal spending has steadily declined as a percent of GDP down to about 20 percent in 2014. But in 2015 federal spending started to increase as a percent of GDP.

The federal government never cut public expenditure. It went up considerably due to the stimulus and was magnified in terms of percentage of gdp due to drop in gdp. Over the years following the crisis the expenditures dropped as a percentage of gdp from the new elevated rate due to gdp growth, but saying there was austerity by the federal government is not true

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_spending_chart

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