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The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

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Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#81

Post by condorwhilhem »

bradleyjg wrote: post #11

The post housing crash housing boom was almost entirely the result of the federal government--which has made, guaranteed, or bought significantly more than half the residential mortgages since 2008--deciding there should be a housing boom. If it is indeed coming to an end it is because the federal government collectively has decided not to double down and keep the party going. This isn't the weather or even the price…

Can you prove that? Not saying I don't believe you but I've never heard that before.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#82

Post by gowld »

allthecybers wrote: post #67
iscrewyou wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really feel like this is it. Debt was introduced to parents of millennials. But it took some time to become institutionalized. Now millennials are in debt right as they get out of college. No matter what college you leave, you can have debt if your parents didn’t pay for your tuition. On top of that, wages have been stagnant. Then there is the credit card debt that is very easy to accumulate is you aren’t careful w…

Even as a DINK millennial couple with a combined low six figure income a home purchase feels like a poor investment. Not only the down-payment of $100k+ but the property tax increases and then having to pay that mortgage for 30 years. Since we expect mobility and a certain level of future uncertainty it just doesn’t make sense for us and many more of our generation to tie ourselves to such and expensive geographic an…

You can rent out that investment if you move. Paying rent is also expensive where home prices are expensive.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#83

Post by aftbit »

walrus01 wrote: post #69
neokantian wrote: post #58

I am quite convinced it would be possible to build a pleasantly-looking development of $25,000 sale-value housing at 50 or 70 miles away from the urbanized area and connect it with a fast transit rail to the main urbanization. Empty land should be cheap. Buyers should be plentiful. The reason why this does not happen, is because the bureaucracy prevents it. There seems to be a strong political necessity to make accom…

$25,000 can EASILY be spent, and triple that, just on getting well water, septic and electrical services to a rural property. I could buy 20 acres in Okanogan county WA right now for $18,000 but it'll be at the end of a dirt road, with no sewer, no water, and looking at $30k to extend grid electrical to it (or build a $20k off-grid photovoltaic system). I'm guessing from your comment that you've never actually done t…

How do you find cheap land like this? I would love to own 20 unimproved acres in rural Washington.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#84

Post by DubiousPusher »

walrus01 wrote: post #57
gwbas1c wrote: post #49

I just built a home. One thing I noticed: Some builders are really stupid about reading the market and knowing what people are willing to pay. They load homes up with luxury features and then wonder why their homes sit vacant. My builder has a vacant home in my neighborhood. He ran Ethernet to all rooms, and put in other silly features, and just couldn't comprehend why his price was too high.

Ethernet to all rooms is really cheap, like one box of cat5e ($85), some $3 faceplates and $1.50 keystone jacks from monoprice. Assuming he did the typical builder thing of putting a steel box in the wall between two studs somewhere. Plus cost of low voltage installer labor to staple it to wood before the drywall is done, and maybe a $20 patch panel in the in-wall box. And a $9 punchdown tool. I've seen this done by…

Most construction materials are cheap. Especially at contractor rates. Labor is the expensive part. If you're a contractor you've got to have an hourly rate that covers your business expenses and pays you well. If it takes even just 20 hours of work to run all the Ethernet that's probably about $1500 added to the top line. Added a dozen features like that to a home and you're at $15,000-$20,000 higher asking price to make it worth your while.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#85

Post by walrus01 »

aftbit wrote: post #83
walrus01 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$25,000 can EASILY be spent, and triple that, just on getting well water, septic and electrical services to a rural property. I could buy 20 acres in Okanogan county WA right now for $18,000 but it'll be at the end of a dirt road, with no sewer, no water, and looking at $30k to extend grid electrical to it (or build a $20k off-grid photovoltaic system). I'm guessing from your comment that you've never actually done t…

How do you find cheap land like this? I would love to own 20 unimproved acres in rural Washington.

Look on Zillow, in really small places like Omak you may also need to telephone real estate agents. The way they do business there is like 15 years ago.

Edit: randomly chosen example, I have nothing to do with the seller here: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2089463438_zpid/

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#86

Post by mikestew »

aftbit wrote: post #83
walrus01 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$25,000 can EASILY be spent, and triple that, just on getting well water, septic and electrical services to a rural property. I could buy 20 acres in Okanogan county WA right now for $18,000 but it'll be at the end of a dirt road, with no sewer, no water, and looking at $30k to extend grid electrical to it (or build a $20k off-grid photovoltaic system). I'm guessing from your comment that you've never actually done t…

How do you find cheap land like this? I would love to own 20 unimproved acres in rural Washington.

Umm, Zillow with the right filters. All the 20 acre plots you want for $20K. You better have a vehicle with some ground clearance.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#87

Post by mattdeboard »

pfarnsworth wrote: post #52
systematical wrote: post #38

Older Millenial here. Bought my house while prices were still low in late 2013. Cashed out in March of this year. Thought it was crazy it was bubbling like this again. Time will tell if that was dumb or smart but I did pay off all my debt including student loans... I personally think a crash is coming soonish. But that's just my gut.

Almost everyone thinks a crash is coming. There has never been a crash where almost everyone has seen it coming. Therefore there will not be a crash at least in the near future. Prices might pullback but it won't be a crash.

Isn’t there some logical fallacy about believing that since something has never happened, it will never happen?

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#88

Post by joe_the_user »

walrus01 wrote: post #69
neokantian wrote: post #58

I am quite convinced it would be possible to build a pleasantly-looking development of $25,000 sale-value housing at 50 or 70 miles away from the urbanized area and connect it with a fast transit rail to the main urbanization. Empty land should be cheap. Buyers should be plentiful. The reason why this does not happen, is because the bureaucracy prevents it. There seems to be a strong political necessity to make accom…

$25,000 can EASILY be spent, and triple that, just on getting well water, septic and electrical services to a rural property. I could buy 20 acres in Okanogan county WA right now for $18,000 but it'll be at the end of a dirt road, with no sewer, no water, and looking at $30k to extend grid electrical to it (or build a $20k off-grid photovoltaic system). I'm guessing from your comment that you've never actually done t…

That is certainly the budget as things are done now.

It seems possible you could create a process to do this level of development on an industrial scale and get costs down to the level mentioned.

Re: The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas

#89

Post by shmerl »

EpicEng wrote: post #60
shmerl wrote: post #15

There was a boom? All I've observed is a crazy growth of prices, making buying anything very prohibitive.

>All I've observed is a crazy growth of prices, making buying anything very prohibitive. If only there were a good word for that...

Renting times :)
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