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Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

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Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the jobs that are mentioned in the article that are being hit the hardest are teachers, firefighters, caretakers and so forth. How many of those have been automated away? It seems that tech workers in the valley have found their own analog to blaming immigrants for downward wage pressure, their particular boogeyman seems to be the robots. No, the answer is much more trivial. As the article points out, the huge influx…

I think there’s a step missing in the analysis there. If tech workers are spending all this money — what are they spending it _on_? If they’re spending it locally shouldn’t that increase wages locally?

No. They’re spending it all on housing.

To be clear the flow is: tech companies make enormous revenue but require high skill workers. To make this work they pay whatever it costs to get workers and no more - in this case that means just enough to offset the enormous cost of housing.

Since the baby boomers practically banned all housing development in the bay once their little burns were built, this result in a little see-saw battle where landlords raise the rent until tech companies are forced to raise wages, back and forth. Employees are left with an equation that looks basically like: enormous salary - obscene rent = just a bit more cash flow than you’d earn in software anywhere else.

Thus the flow of capital is from tech companies to landlords, in an arms race that will only end when the landlords have taken so much of the capital out of tech that the industry sputters and moves away.

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#52

Surprised? I'm not. Capitalists are well known to conspire together and create capitalist unions to block workers of all stripes. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/15/technology/silicon-valley... Google, Apple, Intel and Adobe in this one.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_L... Adobe, Apple Inc., Google, Intel, Intuit, Pixar, Lucasfilm and eBay here. https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/ftc-brin…

Upvoted not because I agree (I'm a happy capitalist who happens to hate corporate welfare) but because many, many people on HN have views like this. Don't know why parent should be downvoted for them. Why single this person out?

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#53
Silicon Valley has a multi-fold problem.

1. Housing is expensive because of the influx of people immigrating to the state from out of state and also out of country. (I'm one of them.) This causes a housing shortage which will naturally drive up price of housing.

2. The housing prices don't come down because California in general has very restrictive zoning laws, especially in the most expensive areas, that prevent building of sufficient housing density to cover demand. This in turn drives housing development further outside of the bay area forcing long commute times and highway usage.

3. Because of the high cost of living (primarily from housing, food/etc is not significantly more expensive) from the above problems the solution proposed is to greatly raise the minimum wage, now hitting $15 in many areas. This causes a drive to automate away simpler jobs (also providing an entry for further tech startups to automate these things) or more commonly, move the jobs out of the state via company acquisition followed by moving the administrative jobs to company headquarters located out of state or sometimes out of country. A high minimum wage reduces the available job market by putting an artificial job supply limit in place thus causing unemployment for these simpler jobs.

4. On top of this there's a loophole for illegal immigrants where companies abuse them by paying them below minimum wage because they are here illegally. (Another reason that giving a path to legal immigration for illegal immigrants would help things.)

The first thing and most important thing that needs to happen is for the state to overrule local zoning laws (as opposed by the NIMBYs) and force generic zoning, allowing unrestricted housing development. Just look at the south bay area. The zoning is obvious even looking at satellite maps. Industrial areas are kept separate from housing which are kept separate from retail. This prevents natural intermixing of these causing a lot of need for road development to allow people to travel between these blocks rather than walking down the street.

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#54
post #25

Surprised? I'm not. Capitalists are well known to conspire together and create capitalist unions to block workers of all stripes. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/15/technology/silicon-valley... Google, Apple, Intel and Adobe in this one.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_L... Adobe, Apple Inc., Google, Intel, Intuit, Pixar, Lucasfilm and eBay here. https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/ftc-brin…

Edit: I'm not a mod, nor trying to masquerade as one. > Please don't use Hacker News primarily for political or ideological battle. This destroys intellectual curiosity [0] Please keep your ideological battles away from HN. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Sticking up for my ideological opposite crankylinuxuser again. HN is constantly used for political and ideological battle. Why is crankylinuxuser's different?

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#55

I have when the news writes an entire article around a single report, but then fails to link to that report. You had one job ... Anyway, here's the report in question: http://www.everettprogram.org/main/wp-content/uploads/TIGHTR... Reading the fine details of the report, you see that the top-line metric is real income, adjusted for inflation and local cost of living. And the #1 factor that's proved ruinous to local c…

Thank you! I had no idea what they were talking about in that article. Not only did they not link the report, they didn't even explain how they were measuring real income. Which matters a lot.

My #1 issue is housing. We have got to build more in the Bay Area. It's a social justice issue.

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#56
post #6

The author almost noticed Simpson's paradox: > Surprisingly, the UC Santa Cruz study suggests that employment in low wage industries is growing. The share of worker in jobs considered low-wage in 1997 grew 25 percent over the next 20 years, while the percent working in middle- and high-wage jobs declined. The problem isn't that wages are dropping for certain work; the problem is that middle-wage jobs are being automa…

the jobs that are mentioned in the article that are being hit the hardest are teachers, firefighters, caretakers and so forth. How many of those have been automated away? It seems that tech workers in the valley have found their own analog to blaming immigrants for downward wage pressure, their particular boogeyman seems to be the robots. No, the answer is much more trivial. As the article points out, the huge influx…

There was a study which I cannot locate right now which discussed that one of the substantial impacts of a Walmart moving into a town was that all the "community leadership" type jobs left. Things like accountants and office admins and other business professionals. This was because the small businesses Walmart replaced were the ones that used these services locally. Walmart did these things at it's corporate office far away from the community.

So those who did mid-level things like accounting or office administrative work could no longer find work locally and either had to move or take a lower paying service worker position at Walmart.

Essentially what that reveals is that most of these mid-level jobs are susceptible to the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) effect [1]

Which means that most jobs that do not require physical labor onsite are either being rapidly outsourced to cheaper markets or automated if possible. This ends up being that group in the middle of the pay range and likely accounts for the reduction in overall wages for that group.

[1] http://www.bankpedia.org/index.php/en/87-english/b/23137-bal...

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#57

Meanwhile Nancy Pelosi and company keep on taxing to support inefficient bureaucracy

A little trollish, but now that Democrats have a veto-proof majority (meaning Gavin Newsom is really just a spokesperson, his opinion is irrelevant, he cannot veto legislation), Californians only have one party to ask why the State is the way it is....the #1 poverty State. Not only can Californians no longer blame Republicans (there basically aren't any left in the State), they can't even blame the Governor...he is t…

"If those lousy liberals weren't raisin' our taxes, we wouldn't be in this mess" is no better an argument than "If those meanie conservatives weren't cuttin' our social nets, we wouldn't be in this mess." They're both facile stereotyping. Would you like to present a coherent argument for how you think the Bay Area would have followed a wildly better trajectory in the last decade if Republicans had been in charge? I'm going to go out on a limb and say they would not have raised the minimum wage faster, or advocated more strongly for rent control, or pushed stricter business regulations on giant tech firms in order to protect small businesses, or advocated for strengthening labor unions for low-wage workers, or been better at confronting the moneyed NIMBY interests that make constructing housing so difficult in some areas, or looked at reforming Proposition 13. So what would it have been?

There basically aren't any Republicans left in the State

Other than the third of Californians who voted for the Republican or Libertarian candidates in the 2016 election, sure. Unless you're suggesting they all left in the last two years.

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#58
post #34

I started a nonprofit 2 years ago (garagescript.org) that hires low income people in San Jose and their full time job is to learn how to code and teach new students. Our nonprofit started off with 20 students, most were making about 25k/year and had no coding experience. I paid each of them 2k / month to quit their jobs and focus on coding full time. From the original 20 students, 6 are left. The other 14 are all ful…

First thanks for what you're doing. I think it's definitely part of the solution. My worry though is that I don't think everyone is equipped to be a programer. The thing I keep coming back to is my younger brother. He's got mental disabilities which mean he can't read or do math at more than a very basic level (first grade maybe) and for what ever it's worth he also scored pretty low on IQ tests. Despite a bit of a falling out he's working in construction and doing fine, but he could never go into a highly skilled occupation. There's plenty of people like him some not nearly on such an extreme who would have been perfectly capable of working in management or similar, but as we require more and more training for simple jobs I worry that we loose places for people who can't keep up

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#59
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there’s a step missing in the analysis there. If tech workers are spending all this money — what are they spending it _on_? If they’re spending it locally shouldn’t that increase wages locally?

Rent. Are the landlords local?

All apartment complexes around here are owned by Californian corporations. So yes, they're local.

For example, Essex: https://www.essexapartmenthomes.com/about

They're even publicly listed: NYSE:ESS

Or the Irvine company, after which Irvine, California is named after because they designed the city. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irvine_Company

Re: Silicon Valley wages have dropped for non-tech jobs

#60
post #50
post #34

I started a nonprofit 2 years ago (garagescript.org) that hires low income people in San Jose and their full time job is to learn how to code and teach new students. Our nonprofit started off with 20 students, most were making about 25k/year and had no coding experience. I paid each of them 2k / month to quit their jobs and focus on coding full time. From the original 20 students, 6 are left. The other 14 are all ful…

You should post this as a Show HN. That’s a wonderful idea. I’m sure many people would gladly donate.

I'm currently just focused on helping students with their learning. I don't plan to do a Show HN until the remaining students get a job because I think the attention might be distracting. I plan to do a writeup after the remaining 6 students gets a job and while I take a breather, hope you get a chance to see it next year!
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