None of the top comments mention nuclear weapons. Are we really going to fight a huge war with multiple combatants when some of them could kill untold millions in metropolitan areas with a few rockets?
Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
231–240 of 400 posts
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#232Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think Israel (and, unlike GP, also Iran) are too small-time to start real global war. They're more the potential Bosnias or Serbias - small, belligerent countries that could drag their patrons into conflict.
Israel has "the bomb", they definitely could start a global war.
What series of bombings might start a global war? I doubt bombing Iran would be enough.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
Funny how I always heard that Crimea & Syria were about people and terrorists, respectively, whereas Afghanistan and Iraq were about oil. Maybe all of these were really about resources?
When a mosquito will bite you into nose, you will crush it with power enough to crush all mosquitoes in the house and more. How many resources you can extract from mosquitoes? Stop repeat the Russian propaganda. USA now is the largest oil producer in the world, so give me reason.
The oil of these nations is extremely valuable for the US not to consume them but to acquire exploration rights with ridiculous terms, generating a huge amount of revenue, propping the US economy up keeping up the American dream.
The US has Saudi Arabia and the gulf countries on it's side, Libya in shambles, Venezuela and Iran isolated. That gives the US a lot of power on the energy market.
So there it is, control over oil = money + power.
What else people start wars for?
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#234Earlier quoted context omitted.
Another great war could mean at least one country preparing for it and building weapons in advance. As of now the US have the greatest army, but if let’s say China were to prepare for it for enough time in a somewhat stealthy way, couldn’t it bring the USA into a long and dirty foght ?
>As of now the US have the greatest army, but if let’s say China were to prepare for it for enough time in a somewhat stealthy way, couldn’t it bring the USA into a long and dirty foght ? Well, this is one of the reasons a Great War is unlikely - how are you going to do this? Even if you build things up slowly, you still have to store them somewhere. You have to train people. There is no way to create a military forc…
And it's not going to get very far before the nuclear option gets trotted out. What good is an invasion force if the other side feels threatened enough to start nuclear retaliation?
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#235I'm worried. A big war could easily start partly by accident. A confrontation in the South China Sea or a move by Russia against Estonia could set off a major war. Look what started WWI.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#236The thing about war is that at some point, the conditions line up where it becomes seen as a solution (if not the only solution), and its not easy to see the point at which that will occur ahead of time. Will China's big sea grab start a war? So far, they've been able to smother any of their neighbor's push back, and have just ignored any international rulings against them. What about when they invade Taiwan, which t…
You forgot to mention Israel's aggression on adjacent countries Lebanon and Palestine. Would Israel's constant belligerence start a war?
No, it wouldn't start anything more than a regional conflict à la the Seven Days' War or any of the other several Arab-Israeli conflicts of the past 70 years.
World War I did not start because Austria had a legitimate grievance against Serbia that it was determined to settle with military force. It started because France, Germany, and Russia were all willing, maybe even eager, to go to war and the putative Third Balkan War in as many years was an opportunity to do so. When the leaders of Germany and Russia started getting cold feet and asked about partial mobilization as an alternative option, the military commands were shocked and worked assiduously to convince them that there was no alternative to complete war. In stark contrast stands the Cuban Missile Crisis, where Kennedy and Khrushchev both ignored their military commands' pleas for war and sought to find alternatives to war.
The ingredients for global war are international disputes irreconcilable except for war; a conflict that can serve as a flashpoint to rapidly bring in these wide international disputes; and you need leaders who can continue to escalate the war, knowing all the consequences it might entail. The Middle East simply lacks strategic importance to make two major power blocs go to global war in support of their local allies in a localized conflict.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#237A modern "great war" would require countries of relatively equal military industrial power, so either it would be a great war without the US involved, i.e. China/India, Russia/China (with caveats), etc. In those situations the countries may temporarily forgo the use of nuclear weapons, at least until one side is pressed beyond the point of rational response. I'd also suggest the last time countries were so dominant i…
I wonder if cybersecurity could be counted as a 5th area, and if so, how far behind the US is.
Thats a great point, and quite possibly how the next war would be fought. I picture some Fight Club esque scenario where all the banks get wiped out. Not from bombs, more from a cyber point of view, but could you imagine the loss of faith even a smallish attack could cause. FUD is a heavy hitter in wars.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#238The thing about war is that at some point, the conditions line up where it becomes seen as a solution (if not the only solution), and its not easy to see the point at which that will occur ahead of time. Will China's big sea grab start a war? So far, they've been able to smother any of their neighbor's push back, and have just ignored any international rulings against them. What about when they invade Taiwan, which t…
USA's bombing list for the last 20 years alone speaks for itself: Sudan 1998 Afghanistan 1998 Yugoslavia 1999 Yemen 2002 Iraq 1991-2003 (US/UK on regular basis) Iraq 2003-2015 Afghanistan 2001-2015 Pakistan 2007-2015 Somalia 2007-8, 2011 Yemen 2009, 2011 Libya 2011, 2015 Syria 2014-2016
So what it is speaking to me is
It seems there is a war against Radical religious terrorists which is stateless and more regional, and stopping dictators.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#239Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I'm not aware of Israel making it a matter of national policy to annihilate Iran You jest. That's the centerpiece of their foreign policy.
Asking the world to dethrone and delegitimize a country - even without the context of Iran's posture towards them - is different from genocide, which is Iran's posture, yes.
That is not Iran's posture.
Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’
#240Earlier quoted context omitted.
USA's bombing list for the last 20 years alone speaks for itself: Sudan 1998 Afghanistan 1998 Yugoslavia 1999 Yemen 2002 Iraq 1991-2003 (US/UK on regular basis) Iraq 2003-2015 Afghanistan 2001-2015 Pakistan 2007-2015 Somalia 2007-8, 2011 Yemen 2009, 2011 Libya 2011, 2015 Syria 2014-2016
So what it is speaking to me is It seems there is a war against Radical religious terrorists which is stateless and more regional, and stopping dictators.
>and stopping dictators
If the US cared about stopping "dictators", why are there so many dictators allies of the US?