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Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

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Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#191

Post by MisterOctober »

ImprovedSilence wrote: post #165
jeffdavis wrote: post #29

What's the point of war in the modern world? Gain land/people? If there's a thriving economy there, war will probably change that quickly. If there's no thriving economy, what's the point? You could try to exploit the people/resources there, but the profits in that seem (at least compared to a world power) pretty thin. Unskilled labor and unimproved land are just not worth what they used to be. Specific resources mig…

Less bloody perhaps by use of less kinetic weapons directly against people, but the scary part of war is famine for the populace. Just look at Yemen, I heard 100,000 died in the past few years there, basically just because Saudi Arabia has them under siege in their proxy war with Iran. The biggest killer in Russia in WWII was famine. When the supply chain or a weak link in our technology breaks (or is broken) death t…

^ yep, the above point regarding famine [and civilian suffering in general] being the biggest weapon of war is impossible to over-emphasize. Wars are generally won by breaking the will of the people against whom one is waging war, and that is done by reducing the population to a state of utter misery.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#192

Post by mjevans »

NotAmazin wrote: post #175
tomohawk wrote: post #148

The thing about war is that at some point, the conditions line up where it becomes seen as a solution (if not the only solution), and its not easy to see the point at which that will occur ahead of time. Will China's big sea grab start a war? So far, they've been able to smother any of their neighbor's push back, and have just ignored any international rulings against them. What about when they invade Taiwan, which t…

You forgot to mention Israel's aggression on adjacent countries Lebanon and Palestine. Would Israel's constant belligerence start a war?

Probably because, like myself, the OP isn't informed enough to make a judgement on that case.

There are aggressive factors on all sides of that conflict and there's no clear-cut good or bad guy; only unfortunate things happening to real people who'd all be better off if religion stayed inside the walls of one's dwelling and temple of worship.

Also if in cases of contested buildings listed above, everyone had equal access to the area administered by a neutral outside party.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#193

Post by nerpderp83 »

azernik wrote: post #189
NotAmazin wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot to mention Israel's aggression on adjacent countries Lebanon and Palestine. Would Israel's constant belligerence start a war?

I think Israel (and, unlike GP, also Iran) are too small-time to start real global war. They're more the potential Bosnias or Serbias - small, belligerent countries that could drag their patrons into conflict.

Israel has "the bomb", they definitely could start a global war.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#194

Post by expectsomuch »

AtHeartEngineer wrote: post #186

We are so close, probably within 50 to 100 years, of having technology far beyond what we can comprehend now. We have the chance to be multi-planetary, automate pretty much all work, and fullfil everyone's basic needs...if we don't destroy everything first. I'm going to be real pissed off if we screw this up.

...said people 50 to 100 years ago.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#195

Post by tcbawo »

AtHeartEngineer wrote: post #186

We are so close, probably within 50 to 100 years, of having technology far beyond what we can comprehend now. We have the chance to be multi-planetary, automate pretty much all work, and fullfil everyone's basic needs...if we don't destroy everything first. I'm going to be real pissed off if we screw this up.

For hundreds of years, after every leap in productivity, people have proclaimed the 'end of work'. But that never happens. One theory is that cost of living rises to offset generated wealth (historically, see real estate).

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#196

Post by raprp »

tomohawk wrote: post #148

The thing about war is that at some point, the conditions line up where it becomes seen as a solution (if not the only solution), and its not easy to see the point at which that will occur ahead of time. Will China's big sea grab start a war? So far, they've been able to smother any of their neighbor's push back, and have just ignored any international rulings against them. What about when they invade Taiwan, which t…

USA's bombing list for the last 20 years alone speaks for itself:

    Sudan 1998
    Afghanistan 1998
    Yugoslavia 1999
    Yemen 2002
    Iraq 1991-2003 (US/UK on regular basis)
    Iraq 2003-2015
    Afghanistan 2001-2015
    Pakistan 2007-2015
    Somalia 2007-8, 2011
    Yemen 2009, 2011
    Libya 2011, 2015
    Syria 2014-2016

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#197

Post by wrmsr »

EthanHeilman wrote: post #111
jeffdavis wrote: post #29

What's the point of war in the modern world? Gain land/people? If there's a thriving economy there, war will probably change that quickly. If there's no thriving economy, what's the point? You could try to exploit the people/resources there, but the profits in that seem (at least compared to a world power) pretty thin. Unskilled labor and unimproved land are just not worth what they used to be. Specific resources mig…

>Gain land/people? If there's a thriving economy there, war will probably change that quickly. If there's no thriving economy, what's the point? The point of war in the modern world may in fact be the denial of a thriving economy or industrial base to an adversary. For instance in a large scale nuclear war many of the plans call for the destruction of enemy nuclear weapons as to protect your own infrastructure/popula…

"At the end of the war if there are two Americans and one Russian left alive, we win!"

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#198

Post by tomohawk »

wpietri wrote: post #182
tomohawk wrote: post #148

The thing about war is that at some point, the conditions line up where it becomes seen as a solution (if not the only solution), and its not easy to see the point at which that will occur ahead of time. Will China's big sea grab start a war? So far, they've been able to smother any of their neighbor's push back, and have just ignored any international rulings against them. What about when they invade Taiwan, which t…

And I'd add that it need only be a solution to the person who can start the war. Authoritarian leaders find fights with external enemies extremely useful to quash dissent. Given the global drift toward authoritarianism and nationalism, and especially given how the world's largest military is in the hands of an authoritarian, I think the risk for war is disturbingly high.

Was Obama an authoritarian? What about Bush? What about Clinton (Bill)?

The previous few presidents got the US involved in lots of stupid wars. This president has expressly said he doesn't want to do that and has avoided it.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#199

Post by bryanrasmussen »

expectsomuch wrote: post #194
AtHeartEngineer wrote: post #186

We are so close, probably within 50 to 100 years, of having technology far beyond what we can comprehend now. We have the chance to be multi-planetary, automate pretty much all work, and fullfil everyone's basic needs...if we don't destroy everything first. I'm going to be real pissed off if we screw this up.

...said people 50 to 100 years ago.

yes, the people 50-100 years ago - like H.G Wells - would probably think we screwed it up.

Re: Reasons to Fear Another ‘Great War’

#200

Post by Nomentatus »

learc83 wrote: post #14
smacktoward wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MAD is not necessarily a silver bullet preventative here. If two nuclear-armed states are fighting, for either of them to bring out the nukes would be a huge, difficult decision. It's entirely possible to imagine them settling into an unspoken "gentleman's agreement" to stick to conventional weapons only, as long as the conflict stays within certain parameters (i.e. the war doesn't pose an existential threat to eithe…

The article is specifically talking about another "Great War", not limited conventional conflicts. All out, generation crippling war is a far cry from anything we've seen large industrialized countries engage in since World War II. I can't see how anything like another "Great War" could be possible without going nuclear.

The Germans couldn't match the Allied expertise with biological weapons, and were warned that using chemical weapons would be responded to with far more effective biological weapons. I don't see anything "greater than nuclear" that would complete the analogy here.
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