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The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

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Re: The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

#41

Post by nradov »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #39
nradov wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern US military body armor is actually quite an effective countermeasure against most bullets. Check the casualty statistics from recent conflicts.

Oh, yay, always looked forward to having everyone walk around in military grade body armor.

The point is that — contrary to what @roenxi asserted — effective countermeasures do exist for those who really need them. But the vast majority of us are at near zero risk of being shot today or attacked by drones in the future. No one cares enough about us to kill us. Let's not be paranoid.

Re: The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

#42

Post by stephengillie »

nradov wrote: post #34
stephengillie wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like Japan was supposed to in the 1990s.

Sure the concerns over Japan buying up US real estate and driving US companies out of business seem ridiculous now. But the difference is that at Japan's economic peak they had only about half the US population, whereas now China has about four times the current US population. That's a huge difference in scale.

I was concerned when Deng was in power, but not anymore. China always seem to get in their own way.

Re: The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

#43

Post by lainga »

xrayzerone wrote: post #14
torgian wrote: post #9

I’ve brought up this eventuality countless times in the past couple of years (including recently mentioning this in my software company). I don’t think people are realizing the dangers to minitrization and ease of manufacturing small drones that could kill people. Either through mini bombs, or carrying diseases. What are we doing about it? Seems like we aren’t doing anything

Some people are doing things. There's an outfit at DIU (Defense Innovation Unit) called Rogue Squadron who's job it is to conduct counter-UAS research.

Wasn't their top solution a commercial T-shirt launcher full of chaff?

Re: The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

#44

Post by gyvastis »

cubano wrote: post #40

China is almost wholly dependent upon U.S. citizens for their economic growth and well-being, so the idea that China is itching to start a hot war with the U.S. is rather laughable, at least for the near future. Remember, it's always bad business to kill your customers. I think by far the more credible threat, of course, is from terrorists (foreign and perhaps even domestic, as horrific as that seems) and do hope tha…

So on your world map it's only US and China?

Re: The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

#45

Post by nyolfen »

fernly wrote: post #15
devoply wrote: post #2

I would encourage countries like China or Russia to develop cheap mass drone swarm systems that can deny access to airspace to any adversary. A country could sell this sort of service for hundreds of billions of dollars to another country like an insurance policy. Entire wars could be made impossible. It would be great progress for the world.

What are the aerodynamic abilities of a drone swarm? That is, to what altitude can a swarm reach, to interdict an incoming aircraft? How fast? My impression of current drones is that they are fairly small, less than 2 metres diameter, which implies pretty tight limits on range, altitude, speed, and time-on-station. So even if you have thousands of them, a conventional bomber can come over at an altitude the swarm can…

look at airplanes a century ago and from the perspective of someone then try to extrapolate from those to an sr71 or a space shuttle in just a generation or two

Re: The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

#47

Post by KineticLensman »

nradov wrote: post #21
KineticLensman wrote: post #17

Not mentioned in the article in the context of hardening is the use of electromagnetic pulse weapons as the basis for anti-drone swarm countermeasures. You don't need to jam their comms or disrupt their nav or hit them with shotgun pellets if you can glitch the unhardened control circuitry of their little motors.

Directional, reusable electromagnetic pulse weapons are still science fiction. Producing any significant EMP today requires a large explosion.

> Directional, reusable electromagnetic pulse weapons are still science fiction

As were drone swarms a few years ago. Don't underestimate the speed with which defence contractors will deploy solutions, especially if they sense that there is profit to be made. For example, OBSIDIAN, which is claimed to use proven radar technology to detect and track drones [0].

> Producing any significant EMP today requires a large explosion.

Which might not be a problem if you are defending critical national infrastructure or a high value military asset in a shooting war.

[0] https://www.qinetiq.com/what-we-do/c4isr/obsidian

Re: The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

#48

Post by NTDF9 »

In the very short run, I think China wants to protect itself from what seems like a very adversarial, unpredictable and unreliable US.

Which automatically makes some military and defense people think how they could neuter their adversaries.

In this case, the US's biggest strength is the aircraft carriers. No other country, not even China has those many aircraft carriers.

How does one best neuter slow moving but dangerous targets? The best way is remotely causing enough damage on the hull that impedes progress.

Why will developing an equivalent swarm not help US in the short run? Because the China doesn't have such key large targets that the US could neuter. China literally doesn't have as many ships.

I think this whole uncertainty with Trump presidency is taking really ominous shape and I hope it's all ok at the end.

Re: The Era of the Drone Swarm Is Coming

#49

Post by aaron695 »

torgian wrote: post #9

I’ve brought up this eventuality countless times in the past couple of years (including recently mentioning this in my software company). I don’t think people are realizing the dangers to minitrization and ease of manufacturing small drones that could kill people. Either through mini bombs, or carrying diseases. What are we doing about it? Seems like we aren’t doing anything

> Either through mini bombs, or carrying diseases.

Diseases?

Bombs? 200 drones could kill only 200 people. That's a lot of work when a car full of fertilizer could do the same and takes a hour to make.

I think you miss point of the dangers and societal change that might occur around drones. Possibly the biggest factor that will change the way we function is the "fear" from assassinations.

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