Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#341

Post by Reason077 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 9:34 AM UTC

FireBeyond wrote: post #297

Reason077 wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon Musk has reiterated recently that Tesla's goal is to reach Model 3 production of 10,000 per week in 2019. But not all of those sales will be in the US. According to the Q3 update document: "The mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is more than twice as big as the same segment in the US. This is why we are excited to bring Model 3 to Europe early next year. "

The number of auto sales in the US is determined by demand, not by how much auto makers can supply (within price adjustment constraints, of course).

The Model 3 is currently production constrained. Tesla sell as many as they can produce.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#342

Post by mobilefriendly » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 9:40 AM UTC

40acres wrote: post #48

Great numbers and congratulations to Tesla. If we as a country are going to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels companies like Tesla will need to lead the way. Just a side note that Tesla received a ~$500m loan from the US government back in 2009, which was paid back in 2013 (the loan went out to some other automakers for electric vehicle R&D), and I believe the tax break on electric cars are still valid. Tesla is…

The loan was a terrible deal for taxpayers. It enriched early Tesla equity holders -- including foreign Mercedes-- at the public's expense. The govt was taking on huge risk, the loan was vastly bigger than the company's revenues, but taxpayers got no corresponding upside for that risk. A similar loan to Fisker was a $139 million loss for the government.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#343

Post by olau » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 9:46 AM UTC

emptyfile wrote: post #332

ecpottinger wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am in Ontario Canada, and I have seen a number of them here.

My country has no Tesla's registered. More anecdotes anyone?

Due to lack of demand or lack of supply?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#344

Post by Gibbon1 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 9:46 AM UTC

ecpottinger wrote: post #309

Gibbon1 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read an article that made the case that lithium of batteries are sensitive to the direction of the heat gradient. Tried looking, can't find it. But the upshot was you want the gradient parallel to the electrode layers not perpendicular. Which means you want to remove the heat from the ends of the cell.

I can't find it either, but I remember reading it. However, http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/163/9/A1846.full points out some of the details.

That actually I think is what I was looking for.

Money quote: For automotive applications where 80% capacity is considered end-of-life, using tab cooling rather than surface cooling would therefore be equivalent to extending the lifetime of a pack by 3 times, or reducing the lifetime cost by 66%.

Meaning battery packs that last not 150,000 miles, but 450,000 miles.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#345

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 9:49 AM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #270

Dumblydorr wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain why he is not allowed to? I don’t understand the justification behind the regulations / laws here

You can't lie to investors, that's securities fraud. He's lucky he wasn't facing criminal charges.

What was the lie exactly?

"Funding secured" after the Saudi repeated multiple times that they would pay cash for the operation – which was refused repeatedly in the past by Elon himself? Since most shareholders wanted to remain, the cost of the operation was estimated to be below $20B so who doubt that the funding wasn't secured?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#346

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 9:53 AM UTC

calyth2018 wrote: post #93

Endama wrote: post #13

My understanding is that the conditions inside of Tesla's manufacturing are brutal. I have friends who work on the production side and they effectively tell me corporate culture is driven by fear. I am definitely cheering Tesla on for global warming reasons but I worry that Musk is running a Faustian bargain that may bite him in the backside long term. These numbers though are really exciting.

And their exec level is still a revolving door. I wouldn't pop the champagne yet.

And they keep hiring amazing people, so what's the problem? Isn't it great to have people come and go if they remain strong believers in the company and are ready to work again with Tesla?

For instance, John McNeill was Tesla's global sales and service VP and is now COO of Lyft. I wouldn't be surprised to learn about some deals between the two companies in the future.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#347

Post by sidcool » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 10:09 AM UTC

This is massive for Tesla. I cannot imagine they have achieved this after the tumultuous last few months. Tesla is bigger than Musk, that's the key to its success. I agree that Musk's blind ambition and hubris has made this possible, but now is a good time for Tesla to get a veteran COO to take things to the next level.

Congrats Tesla. Your growth is a source of inspiration for me.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#348

Post by sah2ed » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 10:33 AM UTC

soVeryTired wrote: post #340

btilly wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to financial theory, how you structure a company has no correlation with its success. Therefore the kind of debt financing that Elon is using is just fine. Financial theory and reality tend to agree except in a crisis. Unfortunately crises do tend to come along periodically. How TSLA weathers the next one will be interesting to see.

The Modigliani-Miller 'theorem' is dangerous nonsense. It proves a fact about a model rather than a fact about the real world. From Wikipedia " The basic theorem states that in the absence of taxes, bankruptcy costs, agency costs, and asymmetric information, and in an efficient market, the value of a firm is unaffected by how that firm is financed ". See anything wrong with this picture?

I agree with you that the grandparent misinterpreted the theorem as the Wikipedia article includes something similar to your reply:

"These results might seem irrelevant (after all, none of the conditions are met in the real world), but the theorem is still taught and studied because it tells something very important. That is, capital structure matters precisely because one or more of these assumptions is violated."

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani–Miller_theorem

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#349

Post by user9995 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 10:58 AM UTC

jread wrote: post #261

crwalker wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

I disagree - I've been driving EVs exclusively (Ford Focus Electric followed by Tesla MS) since 2013 in So Cal and can attest to how poor user experience is with 3rd party charge networks. First of all, there are 4+ distinct networks each requiring separate account/payment setup and RFIDs. They are often broken, fully used, overpriced or cumbersome to start. Most are L2 with 20-30A - charging at To the contrary, user…

>Partnership/expansion of for-profit networks will never get there.

So people believe that Tesla is going to upend the entire auto industry, but can't believe that some company will figure out how to build nice charging stations?

So many contradictions in the arguments here. Yes, the Supercharger network was, basically, necessary for Tesla to reach a critical acceptance level. But operating and maintaining those stations is not free.

The idea that the major fuelling stations won't start adding fast chargers is incredibly naive. They already have the infrastructure and real estate. It's a no-brainer. If/when EV demand reaches those levels, it will happen.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#350

Post by erk__ » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 10:59 AM UTC

ranman wrote: post #216

Brakenshire wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, with 6 bays each, most with a 350kW charging capacity.

Where will TSLA be in 2020 though? Will all of that construction really be done in Europe by 2020? It’s definitely possible but it seems improbable.

Well they just opened the first 350kw one in denmark and there are two more that will open soon. The first electric car cabable of taking 350kw will first come late next year. [0]

[0]: https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/regionale/syd/europas-foerste-supe... In Danish