Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

ir.tesla.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

231–240 of 418 posts

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#231

Post by btilly »

koreyb wrote: post #212
btilly wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually there are a lot of bonds outstanding Per http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ff... they have $230 million due in Nov 2018, $920 million due in March 2019, $560 million due in Nov 2019, $113 million due in Dec 2020, $1,380 million due March 2021, and $977.5 million due in March 2022. Plus coupons on all of these payable regularly between now and then. By my count this totals $4.1805 bill…

All but the Nov loans will most likely convert based on share price. Nov ‘18 will be paid per the conference call.

Your claim seems optimistic given that at the current after hours share price, only the December 2020 issue would convert. And just a few hours ago it would not have.

Yes, it is possible that in March Tesla could be trading around over 20% above what it was most of today, but it would be unwise to depend on it.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#232

Post by rohit2412 »

gameswithgo wrote: post #214
Brakenshire wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, with 6 bays each, most with a 350kW charging capacity.

The best situation would be if Ionity and Tesla can agree to merge, or share standards so everyone can charge at all of them. But I imagine Tesla will not be interested until Ionity has parity, or nearly so, with them.

Ionity does not follow their own personal standards. It is the CCS standard. Tesla is the outlier who went with its own proprietary standard. And a post builtout agreement is not going to change hardware connectors on a car.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#233

Post by btilly »

dragontamer wrote: post #202
btilly wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually there are a lot of bonds outstanding Per http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ff... they have $230 million due in Nov 2018, $920 million due in March 2019, $560 million due in Nov 2019, $113 million due in Dec 2020, $1,380 million due March 2021, and $977.5 million due in March 2022. Plus coupons on all of these payable regularly between now and then. By my count this totals $4.1805 bill…

A lot of companies have a lot of bonds out. Its not necessarily unhealthy to keep some debt around, especially through the 2013 through 2017 timeframe when interest rates were abnormally low. Elon will have to roll over the debt somehow: either into stock offerings or maybe into new bonds. The meager profits reported this quarter aren't anywhere near the amount they need to pay off those debts... even if the profits…

According to financial theory, how you structure a company has no correlation with its success. Therefore the kind of debt financing that Elon is using is just fine.

Financial theory and reality tend to agree except in a crisis. Unfortunately crises do tend to come along periodically. How TSLA weathers the next one will be interesting to see.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#234

Post by dragontamer »

omgwtfbyobbq wrote: post #223
dragontamer wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have $3B cash, but owe their suppliers a total of $3.5 Billion right now. (Accounts payable). There's a LOT of assets / liabilities to juggle. Tesla also has $1.5 Billion of incoming cash (Accounts receivable), which is basically people who are currently in the process of paying Tesla right now. But in any case: Tesla's liquid liabilities are larger than their liquid assets. Its a bad spot to be in for sure. Its…

You forgot Tesla's $3.3 billion in inventory. Their liabilities are greater than their assets to the tune of $1.7 billion. That plus the $4.2 billion in bonds is $5.9 billion in debt. Subtract the $3 billion in cash and they'll need to come up with $2.9 billion between now and March of 2022, which is $.2+ billion per quarter. Edit - Double counted cash. It should be $.4+ billion per quarter.

I didn't mean to have a complete list. My only point is that "its complicated". There's a lot of moving parts here. Full details can be found on page 8 of the linked PDF.

> Their liabilities are greater than their assets to the tune of $1.7 billion. That plus the $4.2 billion in bonds is $5.9 billion in debt.

You're double-counting. Liabilities include debt. No need to double-count.

> Subtract the $3 billion in cash

You're double-counting, again. Assets include cash. Lets do this once, and correctly, shall we?

* Total current assets: $7,920,491 (thousands)

* Total current liabilities $9,775,324 (thousands)

That's a total shortfall of $1.85 Billion. Again, page 8 of the PDF provides these numbers.

> they'll need to come up with $2.9 billion between now and March of 2022, which is $.2+ billion per quarter.

Elon Musk has raised capital ever year, roughly to the tune of ~$1 Billion/ year. Either by convincing people to take on more debt for the company... OR by selling more shares out.

The only issue is if a recession hits between today and then, which would close capital markets.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#235

Post by dragontamer »

jjeaff wrote: post #226
btilly wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually there are a lot of bonds outstanding Per http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ff... they have $230 million due in Nov 2018, $920 million due in March 2019, $560 million due in Nov 2019, $113 million due in Dec 2020, $1,380 million due March 2021, and $977.5 million due in March 2022. Plus coupons on all of these payable regularly between now and then. By my count this totals $4.1805 bill…

Your comment got me interested and I was looking at this March 2021 bond issuance. Does anyone know how in the world Tesla was able to borrow over $1.3B at 1.25%? There must be some special case here. Who would loan money to Tesla below the rate they could get in risk free t-bills? This is the bond in question. https://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds/tesla_inc-bond-202...

Its a convertible. It turns into shares instead of dollars at the end of its lifetime.

Furthermore, it was sold below par value. There's 1.25% coupon, but the overall yield is closer to 5% IIRC.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#236

Post by dragontamer »

btilly wrote: post #231
koreyb wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All but the Nov loans will most likely convert based on share price. Nov ‘18 will be paid per the conference call.

Your claim seems optimistic given that at the current after hours share price, only the December 2020 issue would convert. And just a few hours ago it would not have. Yes, it is possible that in March Tesla could be trading around over 20% above what it was most of today, but it would be unwise to depend on it.

I'm not actually keen on the details of the March 2019 bond. A lot of people seem to think its a mandatory conversion (ie: it ALWAYS turns into stock).

If its a mandatory convertible, then Tesla pays it off in shares proportional to the value assuming Tesla was $360ish in price. So you "can't lose", you'll get 33% more stocks if TSLA was only $270 to ensure the bond-holder doesn't lose money.

I haven't been able to verify the status of the March 2019 convertible however. But just note that mandatory convertible vs non-mandatory is a big detail.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#237

Post by nemo846 »

adventured wrote: post #166
colordrops wrote: post #51

The last few big Tesla threads on HN were non-stop piling the shit onto Tesla talking about how untenable they are, bad business model, inability to scale, etc, etc. Is that just an indication that the short sellers have sock puppets here on HN as well? HN happens to be an important source of Tesla news.

I got smacked with waves of downvotes for repeatedly stating a few obvious things: the Model 3 would sell at least 100,000 units this year and that Tesla wasn't going bankrupt anytime soon or going to run out of money soon. These outcomes were not difficult to compute at all. I was mocked for it here, the responses were wildly emotional in nature instead of rational and analytical. You basically couldn't hold a disci…

[flagged]

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#238

Post by taneq »

romwell wrote: post #49
andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Indeed. For all the talk about "range anxiety", it is a real concern that only Tesla seems to be actively working towards eliminating. I've needed to drive across the country every year for the past 4 years, and allocating extra days to stop and charge was never an option. That's one aspect where my cheap Honda beats most electric vehicles. For EV to go truly mainstream, that should not be the case.

Best is the enemy of good, and perfect is the mortal enemy of best. Just because a vehicle isn't 100% perfect for 100% of people doesn't mean it isn't the best vehicle for most people.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#239

Post by mrep »

rconti wrote: post #127
nikofeyn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

There are a number of reasons those cars aren't sold in the US, and inability to pass any kind of safety standard is certainly going to be one of them. Of course, the fact that our market is (probably) smaller than theirs with way more red tape (including the aforementioned safety standards) doesn't hurt.

Also, I would bet a lot of money those cars infringe on some patents.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#240

Post by propman »

kllrnohj wrote: post #169
propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Mode…

I meant cars, not all autos. Cars are 6.2 million. Musk said he’s trying to get to 6000 a week by the end of August and 10,000 a week in 2019. The demand is clearly there as are the profit margins even sans ev credit. I know he overestimates things a lot but that tells me they are seriously considering ramping up production. As the production and now delivery processes streamline, they can definitely hit 6000 by end of year and realistically hit 8000 by mid 2019.
Post reply on HN