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Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

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Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#141

Post by extrapickles »

andrewmunsell wrote: post #118
TheSmiddy wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$2 an hour is incredibly cheap for CBD parking without the added electricity, that doesn't seem expensive to me at all.

In my city (Bellevue, WA), there's ChargePoint stations operated by the city in free street parking and in the park, so the cost is entirely in the operation of the EV station and electricity. It might not seem bad, but it isn't necessarily competitive with a Supercharger or home charging in terms of cost. Blink is worse, at 39c-49c per kWh, which is about $2.50 per hour at the low end.

That is about twice the rate for Superchargers which the going rate in WA is $0.25/kwh.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#142

Post by dragontamer »

kylec wrote: post #137
cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

Why is there this obsession with trying to defeat shorts in the Tesla community? Every negative comment or story about Tesla or Elon is accused of being fake news purpotrated by shorts. It’s really weird, I’ve never seen it in any other community, and it doesn’t seem healthy.

There's some degree of competitive play that I think is healthy. People like to be right, and "the bulls" vs "the bears" is a common theme among investors.

Where things get unhealthy is when people start to push conspiracy theories with "the shorts" controlling media. And Tesla discussions consistently cross the line into conspiracies.

With that being said, this particular comment you've replied to seems relatively tame compared to what I normally see around the internet (and its tame even by the standards of this Hacker News discussion! I'm seeing some "conspiracy level" comments elsewhere in this discussion right now...) . There's nothing really wrong with claiming that the shorts were wrong on Q3 predictions IMO, as long as the author doesn't go full-on conspiracy theorist... it isn't too bad to push the classical bulls vs bears discussion which have gone on for over a century.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#143

Post by plaguuuuuu »

rconti wrote: post #127
nikofeyn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

There are a number of reasons those cars aren't sold in the US, and inability to pass any kind of safety standard is certainly going to be one of them. Of course, the fact that our market is (probably) smaller than theirs with way more red tape (including the aforementioned safety standards) doesn't hurt.

I mean, there's a risk/reward ratio. if I was in a country with 1bn people, I probably wouldn't risk moving to a market with less people that are suspicious of Chinese manufactured cars at this point either

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#144

Post by onemoresoop »

dgritsko wrote: post #29
_zachs wrote: post #12

Just shows how fake all of the "expert analysis" is. It's so painfully obvious that all of the expectations of losses of 15 cents/share were just paid for by either the govt./big oil.

Or maybe that "expert analysis" is really difficult, with a lot of complicated factors that are hard to reason about effectively?

That's what they say when getting it wrong. Yes it's complicated, I agree, and all predictions should be taken with a boulder of salt

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#145

Post by dforrestwilson »

compcoffee wrote: post #70
shroom wrote: post #59

Great news but I have to ask. Maybe someone here can share their view/opinion about the market and what’s going on. Musk can’t tweet about going private. So a major short seller sue him and Tesla. Stock ”crash” during two months. Short seller completly turn around and now long the stock which rises A DAY before this report? Eyebrows should be raised so high everyone go bald. Where Will this end with SEC? And How is t…

This is called late economic cycle hysteria. No rules. I've been through two of them, things get crazier.

How do you envision things getting crazier?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#146

Post by Gibbon1 »

akira2501 wrote: post #65
sliken wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From an engineering perspective it's suboptimal since they have small surface area relative to volume. That's probably why Telsa went with the 2170 instead of the 26650, which has a larger diameter. Despite this disadvantage the Telsa battery cost, power density, cost per kwh, peak power, and longevity are unmatched. Especially as measure by real people driving real cars on real roads. So sure in theory batteries wit…

> So sure in theory batteries with more surface area would have greater package efficiencies. There's way more to a battery than just density; however, one of the things that needs to be managed is the heat generated during charging. There might be a case to be made for slightly suboptimal packaging strategies if it makes cooling all those cells that much easier.

I read an article that made the case that lithium of batteries are sensitive to the direction of the heat gradient. Tried looking, can't find it. But the upshot was you want the gradient parallel to the electrode layers not perpendicular. Which means you want to remove the heat from the ends of the cell.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#147

Post by llsf »

compcoffee wrote: post #75
synaesthesisx wrote: post #57

Amazing results - I am especially taking great pleasure in watching the shorts get decimated. The Model 3 is a game-changer for the masses. I walked past 6 of them just on my way to get coffee this morning. We're truly witnessing the EV revolution.

Why? Because Elon dislikes them? The stock is still way off all time highs, you appear to have a short memory.

The share price is below some highs, but still... talking about memory, the stock was ~$35 5 years ago, and now trading at ~$300. Yes, some stocks did better during that time, but it is not that bad.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#148

Post by gpm »

Dwolb wrote: post #132
kumarm wrote: post #3

Congrats to Tesla and Musk. The numbers are just insane: "The electric car-maker reported adjusted earnings of $2.90 per share on revenue of $6.82 billion, exceeding average analyst expectations of losses of 15 cents per share on revenue of $6.32 billion."

Almost there but not out of the woods yet. Good: $1.3B cash from ops, $1B increase in receivables Bad: $2B current portion of debt coming due, $1.2B increase in payables Still need stellar numbers (and cash) in Q4.

Err... they have $3B cash and that increased $731M Q3. So I don't see why there would be any short term issues with those other numbers.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#149

Post by drexlspivey »

kylec wrote: post #137
cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

Why is there this obsession with trying to defeat shorts in the Tesla community? Every negative comment or story about Tesla or Elon is accused of being fake news purpotrated by shorts. It’s really weird, I’ve never seen it in any other community, and it doesn’t seem healthy.

Because it is the most shorted stock in the history of the stock market.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#150

Post by dragontamer »

jacques_chester wrote: post #87
cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

> Tesla no longer seems to be facing a cash crunch in the near term. I agree these numbers are, essentially, a spectacular turnaround over the past 6 months for which Tesla deserve enormous credit. That said, current assets are $7.92 billion and current liabilities are $9.77 billion. It's one thing to have around three billion dollars of cash at hand, but not as great if you have three and half billion dollars of bil…

I'm not sure why this comment is being downvoted, but its true. Tesla's moment of profitability has come, but it was SUPPOSED to come Dec 2017. Or at least, by the original plans.

Tesla's debt structure over the next year is complicated, with March 2019 convertibles coming in soon. But in either case, Tesla has to build $920 Million to pay back that loan... among many others in the coming years.

Elon Musk really needs another round of capital raises, either stock offerings or bond offerings. If those are successful, then the company will be in a much better spot. Their cash-on-hand is very weak and is definitely a valid point of criticism at the moment.

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